2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

The sense of a slide towards full conflict grows and this is bluntly acknowledged this morning by the State Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee head Alexei Pushkov.

Relations between Russia and Ukraine have entered a new stage and are “on a way to serious conflict”,

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Even more blunt

I think this is a deliberate decision coordinated with the United States — all these are links of one chain,”

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And this was before today's killing of two Russian journalists and the attack on the Gas Pipeline.

If Russia concludes that conflict is unavoidable and that others are determined to start it, then I think a decisive response will come hard and fast.

SampanViking said:

The sense of a slide towards full conflict grows and this is bluntly acknowledged this morning by the State Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee head Alexei Pushkov.

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Even more blunt



And this was before today's killing of two Russian journalists and the attack on the Gas Pipeline.

If Russia concludes that conflict is unavoidable and that others are determined to start it, then I think a decisive response will come hard and fast.

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Man, real life events really makes Call of Duty crappy by comparison...it'll be quite a showdown really, if US chicken out on this one its creditability will be more than just "dented".

MwRYum said:

Man, real life events really makes Call of Duty crappy by comparison...it'll be quite a showdown really, if US chicken out on this one its creditability will be more than just "dented".

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with Iraq turning into full blown chaos again and now Ukraine creeping into civil war with Russia waiting just at the outskirts to intervene, I hate to be Obama. he's not going to intervene in both of this and his critics are going to tear him into pieces. his domestic opponents are circling him like a pack of wolves.

MwRYum said:

Man, real life events really makes Call of Duty crappy by comparison...it'll be quite a showdown really, if US chicken out on this one its creditability will be more than just "dented".

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And what will be left of Europe if US does not chicken out?

Nobody likes having a hostile country right next door, especially if it was a militarily and economically critical ally, super especially if another hostile country or group of countries had something to do with that attitude change, and super duper especially if it starts launching military attacks against ethnic brethren.

That said, I am certain Russia didn't and still doesn't want a war with Ukraine as that will solidify and make permanent its division, as Russia's current partial loss of influence can still be regained if the opposing Ukrainian camps remained a single country in flux. Putin shot himself in the foot with the annexation of Crimea which led to the pro-Russian Ukrainians elsewhere demanding annexation by Russia rather than a federalized Ukraine.

For the same reasons it is desirable for Russia's opponents to have a Ukrainian civil war, breakup of the country if they can't win the war, and a resulting part of the Ukraine that will have a hardened anti-Russian stance. There is little fear that Russia will invade the non-pro-Russian parts of Ukraine as that is both difficult for Russia to do and comes with numerous serious negative consequences.

delft said:

And what will be left of Europe if US does not chicken out?

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Hopefully not turned into glass...

Let's not get our skivvies in a bunch.. I am 99.9% sure no matter what happens in Ukraine, Obama will not be sending US troops or assets in a direct confrontation with the Russians. There will be significant political backlash and while not a fan I also don't think Obama is that foolish.

A couple of days ago the Western media was loudly proclaiming Poroshenko's announcement of a unilateral ceasefire that could start in days or even hours, with much being made of the fact, that the announcement was made straight after he had finished a phone call to Putin.

Russian media was far more reserved on the issue and within a day, the leaders of Donetsk and Lughansk had dismissed it as nothing more than a demand for total capitulation before any settlement was negotiated and implemented.

Today's Russian media continues with the sense of growing escalation and impending conflict rather than settlement, all the more compounded with the very obvious lack of any cease fire on the ground and violations of supposed humanitarian corridors, with fleeing civilians reported to have come under fire from Ukrainian positions.

Two releases from Itar-Tass stand out today.



Sergei Ivanov the Presidential Administration Chief (equivalent to the US Chief of Staff) has used the word Genocide to describe Ukrainian military actions. This of course is Putins trigger word for an R2P intervention with the Russian military and for which he has already authorisation.



This time its the man himself, as Putin calls western leaders and discusses his "serious concerns" about the activities of the Ukrainian army.

Who invented R2P? There seems more reason to invoke this than a few years ago in Libya which let to the destruction of that country. Russia will want to prevent the destruction of Ukraine because such destruction would be damaging to Russia itself even beside its effect on the economic relations between both countries.

To much fanfare in the West, Poroshenko has started his ceasefire and announced his Peace Plan. Unfortunately it does seem to include negotiating with the PRD/PRL leadership and they not surprisingly have denounced the cease fire and Peace Process as a sham.

Russia seems quite underwhelmed as well and mightily peeved by several border incidents today, one of which was a mortar attack from the Ukraine army against a Russian Border Check Point, which critically injured a Russian Customs Officer.



Russia has also indicted the Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Akarov and the Oligarch Governor of Dnepropetrovsk Region, Igor Kolomoisky for War Crimes.



A further spat has occurred with NATO Secretary Rasmussen who has accused Russia of "massing troops" on the Russian Ukrainian border. Russia has retorted that this is a reinforcement of the border guard and that it was notified long in advance. Rasmussen has also provided some comedy relief by claiming that Russia is secretly funding Green Pressure Groups and Activists to frustrate attempts at building a viable Fracking Industry in Europe. The claim has been ridiculed by all sides.

Well I suppose behind the scenes, the tough attitudes being struck are simply the forming of hard opening positions and a satisfactory Peace deal for all sides is being forged. Somehow though, the mood music just is not convincing and instead I really do get the sense of two countries sliding into war and both trying to get their justification "in" first.