2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

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texx1

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Without major breakthrough in technology or exciting new gas deposit discovery in EU proper, Gazprom has and will continue to have a significant price advantage over everyone else in the EU gas market.
 

texx1

Junior Member
The main problem is the hundreds of individual opposition groups that the Canadian government and gas suppliers face whenever the idea of an Alberta pipeline is brought up. All this environmental concern and opposition is seriously getting quite petulant and highly oblivious to the potential economic gains, jobs opened, and regional security. Someday Alberta's oil and gas will be extracted, no question, and they will be transported to international customers, regardless of whether these people protest or not.

Notwithstanding the environmentalists' objections, the main problem over Alberta's gas pipeline is the unequal distribution of risk and reward. Alberta's next door neighbor, British Columbia would have to bear most of the damage from any potential problems associated with gas & oil pipelines, leaks or explosions, whereas most of the rewards would go to oil & gas firms in Alberta. Unless there is an agreement on substantial transfer payment between BC and Alberta, BC voters would punish any provincial politicians that sell out their land for pittance.

It's a shame really, if Alberta is not landlocked, there wouldn't be any issues.
 
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SampanViking

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While the media attention has been on the EU association deal and the extension of the Ceasefire until Monday evening, there have been continuing violations on both sides, including another mortar attack by Ukrainian forces on another RF border checkpoint.

None of which is the most interesting thing that I have read over recent days.
This however is
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The story is that Ukraine is setting up new "border checkpoints" along the regional administrative borders of the Lughansk and Donetsk and the neighbouring regions.
This raises two issues
1) As an "anti terrorist" measure it does not communicate confidence in the punitive mission being able to defeat the Pro-Russians, if they are worried about rebel advances.

2) It more strongly suggests that Kiev has concluded that very soon these Regions will be lost for ever and that these new Checkpoints will be needed for the new International border.

It does sound like Poroshenko is anticipating Russian recognition of Novorussiya and doing so fairly soon.
 

SampanViking

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Plenty of talk today of extending ceasefires and starting rounds of Peace Talks.

On the ground however clashed continue and another Russian journalist is killed.

On a tactical level, there has been a significant development in Donetsk today, with the rebels over running a Ukrainian Air Defence position and capturing at least one BUK Sam system.

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Both reports admit there is a lack of detailed verification.

If true (and it think that it is likely that it is) it could signify that another attempt on Donetsk Airport is in the offing and that this time, Ukrainian forces will not be able to rely on uncontested air power to save the day!
 

SampanViking

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"International Condemnation as Poroshenko defies world leaders, walks out of Peace talks and orders full military assault!"
and other headlines you will not be reading in your newspaper or hearing on your TV today.

This is all the more surprising given that yesterdays press was full of optimism based on the four way talks between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko and Putin amid reports of good progress and agreement for extending the ceasefire and implementing the 14 point Peace Plan and the OSCE roadmap.

All the more surprising, is that given that France and Germany had clearly invested a lot of their authority in trying to make these talks work, that the leader of a nation that has just signed an association agreement with the EU and be dependant on the EU for financial support and other largess, would disregard their efforts and their wished so fully and not be loudly, roundly and very publicly condemned for so doing.

Poroshenko has indeed defied the main leaders of Europe and you have to wonder why he feels confident of antagonising both his Eastern and Western neighbours in this way?

Irrespective, the full punitive mission (no doubt substantially reinforced) has restarted and so all eyes must surely now turn to Putin to see his reaction.

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Miragedriver

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Russia’s President Vladimir Putin promises to protect ethnic Russians with 'the entire arsenal of available means' amid clashes in key towns in Ukraine's east.


Ukraine launches new offensive to rid east of rebel 'parasites'

Daily Telegraph - Ukrainian forces launched a new offensive against pro-Russian rebels in the east of the country on Tuesday after President Petro Poroshenko ended a ceasefire and promised to purge the region of “dirt and parasites”.
Both sides in the conflict reported clashes in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions bordering Russia.
“After the President's speech, the ATO (Anti-Terrorist Operation) went into action,” said Ukrainian military spokesman Oleksiy Dmytrashkovsky. “We opened artillery fire, carried out air strikes at the strategic points of the terrorists and places where they are concentrated.”
In a televised announcement early this morning, Mr Poroshenko said he had given orders “to attack and liberate our land” from “terrorists, insurgents and marauders”.
Writing on his Facebook page, he added that, “we must be united, because we are fighting to free our land from dirt and parasites.”
Speaking to diplomats in Moscow, Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, said he and “European colleagues” had failed to persuade Mr Poroshenko that “the road to a reliable, strong, long-lasting peace does not lie through war.”
Mr Putin said Russia would “energetically defend the right of ethnic Russians, our compatriots abroad, using the entire arsenal of available means”, including “the right to self-defence”.
The Russian president added that “anti-constitutional overthrows and interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states” in Europe must be avoided – a comment that will bait Ukraine’s government after the Russian annexation of Crimea.
The renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine came amid intense negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany over a peace plan proposed by Kiev.
However, diplomacy appeared to have taken a back seat as fighting was reported in the towns of Donetsk, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
Oleksandr Turchynov, the speaker of Ukraine’s parliament, told a morning session: “The separatists’ leaders have demonstrated their unwillingness and inability to control the actions of the terrorist units and marauding gangs under their control. Our armed forces are attacking the terrorists' bases and strongholds.”
Moscow reacted sharply to news of the attacks, saying it “regretted” the escalation, which, it claimed “did not occur without outside influence, despite the position of leading EU member states.” “We once again urge (partners) to stop using Ukraine as a bargaining chip in geopolitical games,” the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.
The ministry also said that Ukraine “would have to answer” for civilian deaths in the east, including four people killed in a minibus taxi in Kramatorsk overnight. “We demand that Ukrainian forces stop shelling peaceful towns and villages and return to a real rather than a sham ceasefire in order to save lives,” it added.
Mr Poroshenko earlier blamed pro-Russian rebels for ignoring the ceasefire he announced on June 20th, and continuing attacks on Ukrainian positions.
Laurent Fabius, the foreign minister of France, said that France and Germany would continue to lead efforts to de-escalate the crisis.



I will now get back to bottling my Malbec
 

delft

Brigadier
An R2P operation to protect the people in the Eastern provinces would have a much more credible justification than that concerning Benghazi a few years ago.
It can also be very fast using aircraft and MRLS.
 

delft

Brigadier
I just read on the website of my favorite radio station that the German foreign minister will tomorrow receive his colleagues from Russia. Ukraine and France.
 

delft

Brigadier
From Christian Science Monitor:
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How Bulgaria fell victim to the tug of war over Ukraine

Under pressure from the West, Bulgaria halted construction of the Russia-backed South Stream gas pipeline – which played a role in the Bulgarian president's decision this weekend to dissolve the government.
By Kit Gillet, Correspondent JULY 2, 2014


SOFIA, BULGARIA — Ripples from the West's conflict with Russia over the fate of Ukraine are washing ashore in Bulgaria.

In the EU's poorest country, the government's plans to build part of the South Stream pipeline – a much needed job-creator – have been snared in the East-West geopolitical struggle. And the debate over the pipeline within Bulgaria, in combination with several other crises, played a role in the collapse of Bulgaria's ruling government.

Early last month, Bulgarian Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski announced that he was halting construction of the $45 billion South Stream gas pipeline through the country, under threat of punishment from the EU.

The Russian-backed pipeline – intended to run under the Black Sea and through Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, and Austria – would, when completed, supply gas to Europe. Bulgaria could expect billions of dollars in investments and thousands of new jobs from the pipeline, as well as guaranteeing its own energy needs.

But South Stream is also a political football in the fight between Russia and the West over Ukraine. Russia intends the pipeline, one of several linking to Europe, to bypass Ukraine entirely. That would give Russia a greater ability to control gas flow into Europe and to cut off supplies to one customer without impacting others, a tool that could have proven useful in the winter of 2008/09 when Russia halted exports to Ukraine, resulting in disruption for other European customers.

Fearing such leverage, both Washington and Brussels have brought pressure to bear against South Stream.

The EU has raised questions about the legality of how the contracts for the Bulgarian section were awarded, and whether the project violated European regulations. The regulations require different companies to be in control of production, transportation, and the supply of natural gas.

And the US is leaning on Bulgaria over doing business with Stroytransgaz, whose owner is on an American sanctions list issued following Russia's annexation of Crimea.

“We are deeply concerned with Bulgaria’s recent decision to award the contract for the construction of the South Stream pipeline to Stroytransgaz,” wrote Marcie B. Ries, the American ambassador to Bulgaria, in a statement last month. “We advise Bulgarian businesses to avoid working with entities sanctioned by the United States."

“This project had red flags all over it from the start,” says Ruslan Stefanov, director of the Economic Program at the Center for the Study of Democracy in Sofia.

Snowballing

Yet in many ways, this setback was only the start of the problem for the government.

After Mr. Oresharski announced the suspension of the pipeline construction, members of Bulgaria's opposition, as well as government ministers, came out publicly saying that he didn’t have the power to unilaterally block the project. Stung by this opposition, the already weakened prime minister had to reiterate his order.

Even then, Gazprom, the Russian partner, has said that it is continuing work on its part of the pipeline under the belief that the project is in line with regulations.

Last week the Bulgarian government sent a letter to the EU Commission saying it did not believe the pipeline violated any European regulations, but it could take months to clear up the uncertainty. And from next month an interim government will be in charge until new elections are held on Oct. 5.

“This project is pretty much frozen,” says Daniel Smilov, a political analyst with Centre for Liberal Strategies. “Nothing will happen on it until at least after the election, and even then it will rely on positive signals from Brussels.”

Grim times for Bulgaria

The South Stream debate comes at an extraordinarily bad time for Bulgaria's government. It has also had to deal with flooding in the east of the country that left a dozen dead.

To cap it off, two of Bulgaria's leading banks have suffered runs in the last two weeks, after customers received emails and text messages warning them to withdraw their funds before it was too late. On Friday, long lines formed outside banks in the Bulgarian capital and in other cities.

The conjunction of events led Bulgaria’s president, Rosen Plevneliev, to announce Sunday that he would be dissolving his country’s parliament in early August and appointing a caretaker government ahead of new elections.

However, that doesn’t seem to be enough to convince many in Bulgaria. Fresh lines formed at banks on Monday, albeit smaller ones.

“Normal Bulgarians long ago lost trust in all of our politicians,” says one Bulgarian in downtown Sofia who asked not to be named. “History is repeating itself from the crisis in the 1990s [when 14 banks went bankrupt]. Dodgy deals, banks collapsing, high unemployment, and also a feeling that the government is not giving us all of the information."

"I just feel numb about this situation,” he says.
It is necessary according to Washington and Brussels for other European countries to suffer when Ukraine and Russia quarrel. And now Europe's poorest country suffers to maintain that situation.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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Does anyone know how much the warship deal was worth? I would imagine it would have to be equal to or below $9 billion. I guess you can tell if this were true if the fines cancel out any profits from the deal for France.
 
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