2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

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If:

a) he had done exactly as Yanukovych had done; and
b) Yanukovych had been appointed by the Rada as acting president only (i.e. not standing for election next month)

then yes I would be supporting the government.

Now is there any chance I could get a point-by-point response to my last two posts? I see quite a few people throwing around generic comments without actually responding to my points.

Mr T, thank you! My guess was you'd never respond to my #1128, I was wrong :) So it seems to me you only want that legal, democratic procedures are followed, irrespective who benefits most from them, and you would defend anybody from this Wikipedia list of the registered presidential candidates:
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if (s)he became a winner of the elections to be held on 25 May 2014 (assuming, of course, free, fair, and regular elections). Correct?
 
Kiev has restarted its "Anti Terrorist" Operations again today and there is significant claim and counter claim as to events on the ground. Way too much fog to warrant any attempt at analysis, but will probably boil down to whether Kiev has been able to field units less open to question about the nature of the operation.
RT is however breaking news that Russia is launching Military Drills on the border in response.

Of rather more interest though is the apparent condensing of the narrative coming from Moscow.

In interview earlier today, Mr Putin has described the Coup Installed Government in Kiev as a "Junta" if they have ordered the army to attack Ukrainian citizens. He further said that their would be consequences from Russia "against those responsible". This is interesting as yesterday FM Lavrov, made it clear that those "Running the Show" i.e. responsible were the United States.

More and more now I am convinced that the "Personnel" vendetta between Moscow and Washington is trumping strict Geopolitics and that this will significantly effect what the end game is and how it plays out.

Regarding the Coup appointed Government in Kiev, the line being taken by Moscow against them, is now quite clear. Not only is this a Government that lacks credibility, that is unable to control large portions of its own military or rein in its far right supporters, but it is also nothing more than a puppet for its oversees masters in Washington, whose interests (attested by the launching of damaging military operations whenever senior US officials fly in) are the priority over those of the ordinary citizens of Ukraine.

Against the US, Moscow will now point to two agreements; the February 20th and the April 17th, which Moscow will accuse Washington of negotiating in bad faith. Again, it will argue that when senior US officials came to Kiev, that rather than put pressure on Yats and Co to disarm the Far Right and begin de-escalation, that instead they "encouraged" further escalation and military attacks on Pro Federalist Ukrainians.

The battle here is still for the hearts and minds of ordinary Ukrainians, something which I suspect is rather more volatile than the entrenched media of both sides are currently giving credence too.

There are still a large hand of cards to play before the end, but clearly Putin is looking to embarrass Washington by creating the circumstances in which the Far Right of the Maidan movement will seek to take control and establish yet another new government in Kiev that would be an outrage to all Western values and seriously undermine US/EU relations; possibly NATO itself, if the US refused to disown it.

The final solution for Russia is of course Military Intervention. If or when this card is played will depend on many factors, not least of which will be nature and scale of sanctions put in place by Washington over the coming days. Place to many and too hard, and Moscow will determine that it has nothing left to lose and simply go ahead.

If Russia does cross the border, it will not simply be to "see" the other side and occupy those regions where support is strongest. The cost of this action will simply be too high for a limited operation. Instead it will "raise" significantly and send the tanks rolling to Kiev and all the way to the Western border beyond. As previously stated on this thread "hung for taking a sheep as for a lamb".

I agree with a lot of the points you made but even if Russia plays the military intervention card I don't think they will push beyond the Southern and Eastern areas where they have significant local support. And I anticipate that if this happens the Russians will set up an "independent East Ukraine" or support a local government competing with Kiev's which claims to still be part of a unified Ukraine.
 

SampanViking

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Big oops! tonight from the New York Times as it prints news that information distributed at Government level about the pictures purporting to show Russian Military personnel in Donetsk region were inaccurate and known to be so.

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Another question has been raised about a group photograph of uniformed men who are identified in the Ukrainian submission as a “sabotage-reconnaissance group” that reports to the “General Staff of the Russian armed forces.”

The Ukrainian submission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe does not identify where the group photograph was taken but asserts that one prominently featured soldier was involved in operations in eastern Ukraine.

A packet of American briefing materials that was prepared for the Geneva meeting asserts that the photograph was taken in Russia. The same men are also shown in photographs taken in Ukraine. Their appearance in both photographs was presented as evidence of Russian involvement in eastern Ukraine. The packet was later provided by American officials to The New York Times, which included that description of the group photograph in an article and caption that was published on Monday.

The Western allegations that Russia has intervened in Ukraine are based on NATO’s analysis of the tactics employed by armed groups in eastern Ukraine; Ukraine’s assertion that it has arrested several Russian intelligence officers; the accounts of local residents and news media reports; and classified information. But the dispute over the group photograph cast a cloud over one particularly vivid and highly publicized piece of evidence.

Maxim Dondyuk, a freelance photographer who was working in Slovyansk principally for the Russian newsmagazine Russian Reporter, said that he had taken the group photograph there and posted it on his Instagram account.

“It was taken in Slovyansk,” he said in a telephone interview. “Nobody asked my permission to use this photograph.”

Jen Psaki, a State Department spokeswoman, acknowledged that the assertion that the photograph in the American briefing materials had been taken in Russia was incorrect. But she said that the photograph was included in a “draft version” of a briefing packet and that the information has since been corrected. This photograph, she said, was not among those presented by Mr. Kerry in Geneva.

Getting to be a bit of a habit, this misuse and mislabelling of pictures!

To Pan Asian

I agree with a lot of the points you made but even if Russia plays the military intervention card I don't think they will push beyond the Southern and Eastern areas where they have significant local support. And I anticipate that if this happens the Russians will set up an "independent East Ukraine" or support a local government competing with Kiev's which claims to still be part of a unified Ukraine.

Its not something I would be overly dogmatic about, as circumstances on the ground and the reactions to them, can change dramatically at short notice. We will not be sure what will happen until such time as it actually happens. I certainly cannot say that your assessment is wrong, it is simply not the most likely outcome that I can see based on the evidence presented to date.

I will try and lay out my reasoning for you.
There are three critical strands of Russian policy to take into account, all of which are are regularly repeated in statements.

1) Russia believes in maintaining an integral state of The Ukraine
2) Russia has no intention of invading
3) Russia reserves the right to intervene if Russian people and interests are attacked.

This means that for Russia to action the extreme act of sending its forces across the border, that it would only be in response to a very extreme situation on the Ukrainian side of it. More precisely, it means as a response to a Fascist attack against Russians and that such a situation would be a massive escalation in its own right and would constitute a repeat of the Patriotic War, a war that cannot be left half done, but one that can only be forced to the final conclusion; the total crushing of Far Right forces in all parts of the Ukraine.

The other part of the equation would be the punitive economic and diplomatic sanctions levelled against Russia by the US, if the forces cross the border. Here again, would these sanctions be measured proportionally against the depth of the incursion, or would they simply be all applied the moment the border is crossed? My guess is that with this President, in this atmosphere and in this media age, there would be no sense of proportionality and everything would be applied on day one. In that case why should Russia show restraint, as there would be nothing more than could be done to hurt them, so they might as well press for maximum advantage from the result. It would almost be a reward for the Coup Installed Government in Kiev, if they were still are allowed to survive and exist as a political entity. This makes no sense to me, because, if they force Putin to send in his military, I think he would be furious and in no mood to compromise and so ensure that they were eradicated. If the current coup installed Government is indeed replaced by a Far Right counter Putsh, then you have the above argument in spades.

I think the situation you describe is one that Russia has been looking to achieve through diplomatic ends, via the push for Federalisation, which would have given them the influence and situation that they want with de-jure partition, but without the need to use any military force to achieve it.
If Putin wanted to invade and partition or incorporate the East and South Coast of Ukraine then why has he not simply done it already? To be honest two weeks ago was probably the time to have done that while the Rebellion was still hot and ticking and the sense of progression from The Crimea still firmly in the public mind. I think that moment has now passed.
 

SampanViking

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Well it looks very much as though phase 3 of the anti terror operation is as much of a farce as the first two were.

There is no significant activity on the ground.

Yesterdays raids on barricades appear little more than symbolic, with local residents claiming to RT that it was little more than a scavenging raid for food and medicine.

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The reports yesterday about Ukrainian forces "liberating" the Mayors office at Mariupol are discovered by the BBC to be entirely bogus

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A Ukrainian Military Helicopter has exploded at Kramatorsk Airbase. Despite claims about it being shot down, it seems most likely it caught fire due to poor maintenance.

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All of which comes hot on the heels of the disclosure that pictures released last week purporting to prove that Pro Federalist Gunmen were Russian soldiers, were cynical disinformation and known to be untrue in their claims.

Overall, the image intensifies of a dispirited Ukrainian army, put into the field, poorly supplied and with badly maintained equipment.

While it is undoubtedly true that all sides are being economical with the truth, the larger and more shrill economies are coming from Kiev and Washington. You could say they have transcended economy for full blown austerity!
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
EUCOM dismisses reports of secret U.S. base in Crimea
Apr. 25, 2014 - 04:51PM |
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A combat vehicle with pro-Russian gunman on top runs through downtown Slovyansk, Eastern Ukraine, Friday, April 18, 2014. Ukraine is hoping to placate Russia and calm hostilities with its neighbor even as the U.S. prepares a new round of sanctions to punish Moscow for what it regards as fomenting unrest. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
A combat vehicle with pro-Russian gunman on top runs through downtown Slovyansk, Eastern Ukraine, Friday, April 18, 2014. Ukraine is hoping to placate Russia and calm hostilities with its neighbor even as the U.S. prepares a new round of sanctions to punish Moscow for what it regards as fomenting unrest. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) (Efrem Lukatsky / AP)

By Michelle Tan
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Key senator: Send body armor and fuel to Ukraine now
Military officials in Europe are pushing back against reports the U.S. was conducting humanitarian assistance projects in Crimea as a ruse to establish a military base in the region.

“Recent media speculation has questioned the cancellation of humanitarian assistance projects in Crimea,” according to a statement released Thursday by European Command. “The school and hospital renovation projects in question were part of EUCOM’s HA program and would have been solely for the benefit of the local school children and community. Rumors that these projects were an attempt to establish a U.S. military base in the region are patently false.”

European Command works hand-in-hand with the Offices of Defense Cooperation and embassies of 17 countries in its area of responsibility to identify humanitarian assistance projects to benefit the civilian population, according to the EUCOM statement.

The projects have been canceled because of “the uncertain security situation in Crimea, which has deteriorated significantly due to Russia’s military intervention, illegal annexation and occupation of that part of Ukraine,” according to the EUCOM statement.

The statement from EUCOM comes just days after the Defense Department announced the Army would send four company-sized infantry units to Eastern Europe, the latest effort to reassure NATO allies in light of Russian aggression in Ukraine.

The 600 paratroopers from the 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team in Vicenza, Italy, will go to Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

Plans call for EUCOM to maintain a rotation of ground forces in those countries for at least the next several months, a Pentagon spokesman said earlier this week.

The companies will conduct live-fire training exercises with local military forces for about one month, then will depart and be replaced by another U.S. Army company, the official said.

The deployment of ground troops is part of bilateral agreements with the four countries and is separate from the broader effort of the NATO alliance to step up military readiness across its vast eastern border.

Last week NATO announced that it would have “more planes in the air, more ships on the water and more readiness on the land” but details of those additional operations have not been made public.

The Army deployment marks the first sustained addition of ground forces into Eastern Europe since Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine’s Crimea region began in late February.
And the Propaganda war continues
 

Broccoli

Senior Member
It's quite clear that FSB has been behind all these kidnappings. United States should send some special forces to send those Russian "green men" to hell... they can drink vodka with Stalin in there.
 
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To Pan Asian

Its not something I would be overly dogmatic about, as circumstances on the ground and the reactions to them, can change dramatically at short notice. We will not be sure what will happen until such time as it actually happens. I certainly cannot say that your assessment is wrong, it is simply not the most likely outcome that I can see based on the evidence presented to date.

I will try and lay out my reasoning for you.
There are three critical strands of Russian policy to take into account, all of which are are regularly repeated in statements.

1) Russia believes in maintaining an integral state of The Ukraine
2) Russia has no intention of invading
3) Russia reserves the right to intervene if Russian people and interests are attacked.

This means that for Russia to action the extreme act of sending its forces across the border, that it would only be in response to a very extreme situation on the Ukrainian side of it. More precisely, it means as a response to a Fascist attack against Russians and that such a situation would be a massive escalation in its own right and would constitute a repeat of the Patriotic War, a war that cannot be left half done, but one that can only be forced to the final conclusion; the total crushing of Far Right forces in all parts of the Ukraine.

The other part of the equation would be the punitive economic and diplomatic sanctions levelled against Russia by the US, if the forces cross the border. Here again, would these sanctions be measured proportionally against the depth of the incursion, or would they simply be all applied the moment the border is crossed? My guess is that with this President, in this atmosphere and in this media age, there would be no sense of proportionality and everything would be applied on day one. In that case why should Russia show restraint, as there would be nothing more than could be done to hurt them, so they might as well press for maximum advantage from the result. It would almost be a reward for the Coup Installed Government in Kiev, if they were still are allowed to survive and exist as a political entity. This makes no sense to me, because, if they force Putin to send in his military, I think he would be furious and in no mood to compromise and so ensure that they were eradicated. If the current coup installed Government is indeed replaced by a Far Right counter Putsh, then you have the above argument in spades.

I think the situation you describe is one that Russia has been looking to achieve through diplomatic ends, via the push for Federalisation, which would have given them the influence and situation that they want with de-jure partition, but without the need to use any military force to achieve it.
If Putin wanted to invade and partition or incorporate the East and South Coast of Ukraine then why has he not simply done it already? To be honest two weeks ago was probably the time to have done that while the Rebellion was still hot and ticking and the sense of progression from The Crimea still firmly in the public mind. I think that moment has now passed.

I am certainly not going to take our forum discussions too seriously but as armchair generals and world (wide web) citizens these international affairs both deserve and are fun to analyze. So I am just contributing my two cents in building up what's on the internet.

The mainly local-protestor-takeovers and propaganda wars we are seeing are happening because the native Ukrainian factions are at a stalemate and their respective outside backers are not committed to escalation yet no one is ready to yield either, at least for the moment. It is a test of wills with each side falling back on their natural positions relative to the strategic value of Ukraine to each side, the US/EU/NATO and their Ukrainian faction are prodding and prying while Russia and their Ukrainian faction are warning let them be.

I predicted that if Russia intervenes militarily they will only do so in areas where they have local support and not annex these areas because this would 1) exacerbate any fissures within the pro-West Ukrainian faction, 2) avoid overextending the Russian military assuming both local resistance in pro-West Ukrainian areas and possible US/EU/NATO military intervention, and most importantly 3) Russia would have already gotten what it wants, a secure pro-Russia eastern Ukraine, which is the most Russia can hope to achieve for now and it can bide its time from there, which is what the federalization of Ukraine is meant to accomplish.
 

Franklin

Captain
A new round of sanctions against Russia from the G7 nations. The US sanctions will be announced on Monday.

Swift, new sanctions to be imposed on Russia

The leaders of the Group of Seven major economies agreed on Saturday to swiftly impose further sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine crisis, and the United States could unveil its new punitive measures as early as Monday, officials said.

"We believe that these sanctions will have a significant impact," U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communication Ben Rhodes said.

The new sanctions will likely target individuals or companies with influence in specific sectors of the Russian economy such as energy and banking, said Rhodes, with Washington expected to announce its sanctions list as early as Monday.

The European Union will announce sanctions separately.

The Ukraine crisis escalated on Friday with armed pro-Russia separatists seizing a bus carrying international mediators and Pentagon reports that Russian aircraft breached Ukraine's airspace several times over the past 24 hours.

The separatist, self-declared mayor of the east Ukraine city of Slaviansk told Reuters the mediators were being held because they were believed to have a spy amongst them from the pro-Western government in Kiev.

S&P downgrades Russia to BBB- amid capital outflows

"People who come here as observers bring with them a real spy: it's not appropriate," Vyacheslav Ponomaryov said in front of a security service building occupied by separatists where the Ukrainian government said the observers were being detained.

The new sanctions are intended to punish Russia for failing to comply with an international agreement to help defuse the Ukraine crisis, according to a statement from G7 leaders released on Saturday by the White House, as U.S. President Barack Obama flew from South Korea to Malaysia on an Asian trip.

"Given the urgency of securing the opportunity for a successful and peaceful democratic vote next month in Ukraine's presidential elections, we have committed to act urgently to intensify targeted sanctions and measures to increase the costs of Russia's actions," the G7 statement said.

Sources familiar with the matter said the U.S. list of individuals targeted with sanctions is expected to include "cronies" of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The EU is expected to name 15 previously unidentified individuals to be placed under sanctions and would focus on those it thinks are responsible for the unrest in Ukraine.


The sources said the one thing that might prevent the EU and the United States from moving ahead with the sanctions on Monday would be a sudden reversal of what they say is Russian-sponsored separatist movements in eastern Ukraine.

"You will find a European list much more connected to actions on the ground, and an American list more focused on cronies and entities," said one of the sources, adding that some EU nations remain concerned about placing sanctions on Putin associates.

Wider sector sanctions

German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen said 13 observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) had been seized, including three members of the German armed forces, a German translator and a Danish national.

"It is critical that we use all diplomatic channels to free this team immediately and unhurt," von der Leyen said, adding that officials were trying to establish the captors' demands.

Russia denies allegations it is directing the separatists, who have taken control of large parts of eastern Ukraine over the past three weeks.

But the White House said Obama and European allies agreed on Friday that Russia had escalated tension in the region, where the rebels have declared an independent "People's Republic of Donetsk".

Putin has scoffed at the sanctions so far imposed, which have been limited to travel bans and overseas asset freezes on individuals.

The standoff has led to heavy capital flight from Russia, prompting credit rating agency Standard & Poor's to cut the country's ratings on Friday. That forced the central bank to raise its key interest rate to reverse a drop in the rouble.

The G7 leaders told Russia that "the door remains open to a diplomatic resolution of this crisis" on the basis of the Geneva accord and urged Moscow to take that path.

Europe has been reluctant to impose tough sanctions due to its reliance on Russian gas and trade ties with Moscow.

But the G7 leaders warned that "we continue to prepare to move to broader, coordinated sanctions, including sectoral measures, should circumstances warrant."

Obama spoke to four European leaders on Friday night about new sanctions against Russia, stressing the need to move quickly, Rhodes told reporters aboard Air Force One.

"Everybody understood that if Russian troops on the border invade Ukraine then sector sanctions will be a response. We need to have a spectrum of sanctions we can impose," said Rhodes.

"We understand that there is unease about the economic consequences of increased sanctions on a large economy like Russia. Our response is that the long-term consequences of allowing Russia to engage in this type of destabilising activity is going to carry its own type of economic costs."

Ukrainian forces move to oust seperatists

Ukraine sent in troops to try to dislodge the separatists for the first time on Thursday, killing up to five rebels around Slaviansk in what it said was a response to the kidnapping and torture of a politician found dead on Saturday.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, accused authorities in Kiev of waging "war on their own people."

"This is a bloody crime, and those who pushed the army to do that will pay, I am sure, and will face justice," Lavrov said.

The Kremlin says it has the right to defend Russian speakers anywhere if they are under threat and has deployed extra troops on the border with Ukraine, which NATO says number up to 40,000.

They began military exercises on Thursday and Ukraine said they had approached to within 1 km (0.6 mile) of its border and that it would treat any incursion as an invasion.

Ukrainian special forces launched a second phase of their operation on Friday by mounting a full blockade of Slaviansk, the rebels' military stronghold, a presidential official said.

One of its military helicopters was hit by rocket fire and exploded while on the ground at an airport near the city, the Defence Ministry said.

Pro-Western leaders in Kiev, who took power in February after Moscow-ally President Viktor Yanukovich fled following mass protests against him, say they fear Russia will try to take over eastern Ukraine.

Russian troops seized Ukraine's Crimean peninsula on the Black Sea soon after Yanukovich left for Russia in February. Moscow denies interfering in eastern Ukraine, as it did in Crimea before admitting its forces had gone in.

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