Kiev has restarted its "Anti Terrorist" Operations again today and there is significant claim and counter claim as to events on the ground. Way too much fog to warrant any attempt at analysis, but will probably boil down to whether Kiev has been able to field units less open to question about the nature of the operation.
RT is however breaking news that Russia is launching Military Drills on the border in response.
Of rather more interest though is the apparent condensing of the narrative coming from Moscow.
In interview earlier today, Mr Putin has described the Coup Installed Government in Kiev as a "Junta" if they have ordered the army to attack Ukrainian citizens. He further said that their would be consequences from Russia "against those responsible". This is interesting as yesterday FM Lavrov, made it clear that those "Running the Show" i.e. responsible were the United States.
More and more now I am convinced that the "Personnel" vendetta between Moscow and Washington is trumping strict Geopolitics and that this will significantly effect what the end game is and how it plays out.
Regarding the Coup appointed Government in Kiev, the line being taken by Moscow against them, is now quite clear. Not only is this a Government that lacks credibility, that is unable to control large portions of its own military or rein in its far right supporters, but it is also nothing more than a puppet for its oversees masters in Washington, whose interests (attested by the launching of damaging military operations whenever senior US officials fly in) are the priority over those of the ordinary citizens of Ukraine.
Against the US, Moscow will now point to two agreements; the February 20th and the April 17th, which Moscow will accuse Washington of negotiating in bad faith. Again, it will argue that when senior US officials came to Kiev, that rather than put pressure on Yats and Co to disarm the Far Right and begin de-escalation, that instead they "encouraged" further escalation and military attacks on Pro Federalist Ukrainians.
The battle here is still for the hearts and minds of ordinary Ukrainians, something which I suspect is rather more volatile than the entrenched media of both sides are currently giving credence too.
There are still a large hand of cards to play before the end, but clearly Putin is looking to embarrass Washington by creating the circumstances in which the Far Right of the Maidan movement will seek to take control and establish yet another new government in Kiev that would be an outrage to all Western values and seriously undermine US/EU relations; possibly NATO itself, if the US refused to disown it.
The final solution for Russia is of course Military Intervention. If or when this card is played will depend on many factors, not least of which will be nature and scale of sanctions put in place by Washington over the coming days. Place to many and too hard, and Moscow will determine that it has nothing left to lose and simply go ahead.
If Russia does cross the border, it will not simply be to "see" the other side and occupy those regions where support is strongest. The cost of this action will simply be too high for a limited operation. Instead it will "raise" significantly and send the tanks rolling to Kiev and all the way to the Western border beyond. As previously stated on this thread "hung for taking a sheep as for a lamb".
