Has 10 nuclear subs a year ever been achieved in the modern era, post WW2? 10 per year for China isn't happening. Isn't the typical rate something like 2 every three years or so? Even if we ignore teething issues needing correction and LRIP for something like the Type 095 after the first "trial" manufacturing set, achieving 10 per year would be beyond realistic. China this and that but it's not 10 SSNs per year insane.
09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Can these shipyards build diesel subs as well?
Somehow I doubt they will lay down more than 3 subs a year. The best Soviet and American yards were laying down 3-4 subs at their peak; whereas China is much weaker in nuclear submarines. Plus modern SSNs are even more complicated than the older boats. And we know that China's military development is very methodical and some would argue even conservative. I think we'll see a few small batches of the new SSN followed by years of testing and only then mass production (max 3 units a year).
Some of the numbers being thrown around in these last few posts are deep in fantasy fanboy territory.
Some of the numbers being thrown around in these last few posts are deep in fantasy fanboy territory.
An unfortunate phenomenon I've noticed during my time on this site is that I seem to elicit responses from people I least want to hear from. Oh, well.
The point of this example is not to belittle and diminish France, the point is that China is without peer or equal. It cannot be compared to anything else, it is in a galaxy of its own.
But we can all pretend for various reasons, some because they're legalistically cautious, others because they're spiteful anti-China ill-wishers, that what applied in the USSR and US applies to China. Then a few years later when the obvious comes to pass, we can all pretend to be surprised that the capacity China built actually gets utilized.
Has an economy larger than a city-state grown at double digit rates for three decades without interruption, post or pre WW2? There's always a first, and China is that first.
Your doubts and opinions are quite meaningless because there just isn't much thought behind them. You simply fail to comprehend China's scale and momentum - if you did, you wouldn't do anything as ridiculous as compare it to America and the Soviet Union. I hope (but not expect) the following example can go some way to correcting your ignorance: Let's take France's economy and compare it to China's. When I last did a calculation in 2019, China added France's entire GDP as an increment to its own every couple of years. Contemplate that for a second - think about all of your country's economic activity and understand that every two years, another French economy pops into existence in China. Note that this was back when France had an economy, before COVID-19 demolished it.
The point of this example is not to belittle and diminish France, the point is that China is without peer or equal. It cannot be compared to anything else, it is in a galaxy of its own.
China is just better.
Not only do you fail to comprehend China's scale, you completely misunderstand the most basic principles of its military development. The cautious experimentation you brought up happens only if China's technology is both behind the world standard and rapidly advancing. Once China is confident that its technology is competitive, it's full speed ahead - ref. Type 052C -> Type 052D/Type055 transition. With the construction and expansion of the new yard, it's crystal clear that China is confident that the Type 09-IIIB/09-V is competitive and will begin rapid construction.
But we can all pretend for various reasons, some because they're legalistically cautious, others because they're spiteful anti-China ill-wishers, that what applied in the USSR and US applies to China. Then a few years later when the obvious comes to pass, we can all pretend to be surprised that the capacity China built actually gets utilized.
The U.S. commissioned 17 nuclear submarines in 1964 and 10 in 1966, according to the chart on page 34 in this 1994 report by RAND, "The U.S. submarine production base". The commissioning rate should imply a similar production rate in the years prior.
The discussion was about attack submarines, not ballistic missile submarines. Having said that, I think the assumption that China wants to keep the number of nukes low is unfounded. China made a virtue out of necessity with its nuclear posture - it was too poor and backward to afford more than a few nukes. Also, being poor and weak made it not a worthwhile target, so minimal deterrence worked for it. Now none of that is true; China is much more technically capable and wealthy, and that power and wealth makes it a tempting target for a certain fading power on its way out. With the DF-41 ready and the JL-3 soon to join it, and given the deteriorating geopolitical situation, I expect the size of China's nuclear arsenal will increase by an order of magnitude.
Well, waddaya know, turns out even the US could manage the lift.
More attack submarines is of course a reason by itself; however the US DoD and others think China will also build more nukes.
From "Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020" by the US DoD, on page 84:
"Over the next decade, China’s nuclear warhead stockpile—currently estimated to be in the low-200s— is projected to at least double in size as China expands and modernizes its nuclear forces. "
According to the Washington Times, satellite imagery shows Chinese nuclear weapons facilities have been expanded
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Now this is gem
“The world deserves to know what is up to. They have never admitted how many nuclear weapons they have and how many they plan on building,” said , the State Department’s lead envoy for arms control.
“But it is clear from imagery that is engaged in a secretive crash buildup of its infrastructure. There is no doubt that wants to be on par with the United States and in terms of its military and nuclear capabilities,” he added.
How did they know how many since the Mianyang facility is underground
Does China have sufficient nuclear material or does it have to import?