Agreed.
(Please note that the following is purely based on "for-the-sake-of-food-for-thought-discussion" assumption that the 095 SSNs will have the aforementioned multipack VLS. Do not take the following as official information unless stated otherwise)
Though, TBH, I don't think it is viable enough to deploy only one large-sized missile per multipack VLS - For the similarly-sized multipack VLS that can only fit three 850mm missile tubes in a different configuration.
This is because for the similarly-sized multipack VLS that can only fit three 850 mm missile tubes, my own guesstimate for the largest possible diameter of the missile tubes that still allows more than one missile per similarly-sized multipack VLS is around 950-960 mm (i.e. 2).
Depending on the dimension and displacement constrains for the 095 SSNs, I don't think that carrying more than 8 multipack VLS per boat is likely. The key consideration - The 095s is still very much a proper SSN. Any more than 8 would turn the 095s into Virginia Block 5-like SSGNs.
Then, here are some estimations I made:
| 4 multipack VLS per boat | 6 multipack VLS per boat | 8 multipack VLS per boat |
One >1000mm missile tube per multipack VLS | 4 | 6 | 8 |
Two ~960mm missile tubes per multipack VLS | 8 | 12 | 16 |
Three 850mm missile tubes per multipack VLS | 12 | 18 | 24 |
My point is that if the multipack VLS can only fit one large-sized missile per multipack VLS, then the width and volume of firepower of which one 095 can deliver against the enemy would become rather limited, alongside concerns WRT the rate of fire, increased chances of enemy interception, etc.
This problem would become more pronounced if the number of multipack VLS per boat is lower.
Of course, the multipack VLS can have two or more different configurations on the same boat. But for the sake of comparison, I make it such that every multipack VLS has the same configuration on the same boat. Though, my point still stands.
So, this discussion about the hypothetical VLS configuration for 09V has some merit.
You are thinking along the right lines in terms of dual packing -- i.e.: you are wanting to ensure that the submarine could have sufficient magazine size of weapons.
And you are right -- i.e.: magazine size is important, however when you have a multipack tube launch system like this, another important trait is "volume usage".
Volume usage is important because you don't want to waste important space in the multipack tube, and also because you want your payload to be sufficiently differentiated and capable from each other to fill different roles.
Let's say the overall tube dimension is 2m diameter and 9m long.
That comes to an overall tube volume of 28.3m^3
Let's say that the payloads can all be 8.5m long, in which case the only factor we will change is their diameter and number, and assume a cylindrical geometry for the payloads (realistically they'll be tapered at one end, but this is more for demonstration's sake):
For a tripack configuration of 0.85m diameter per payload:
- the volume of a single payload is 4.82m^3
- the total volume of the three payloads is 14.46m^3
- the volume usage percentage is 51.3% (i.e.: 14.46/28.3)
For a dualpack configuration of 0.96m diameter per payload:
- the volume of a single payload is 6.15m^3
- the total volume of the two payloads is 12.3m^3
- the volume usage percentage is 43.5% (i.e.: 12.3/28.3)
For a single pack configuration of, let's say 1.8m diameter (I won't make it 2m because let's assume that for the purposes of modularity the actual usable diameter will be a bit smaller than 2m):
- the volume of a single payload is 21.6m^3 (the total volume of the single payload is the same)
- the volume usage percentage is 76.3% (i.e.: 21.6/28.3)
Now, the "volume usage percentage" is one of the reasons why I felt that a tripack 0.85m configuration was useful, as it would offer a combination of useful magazine size, while having the overall tube (of about 2m diameter) able to be potentially fitted side by side in a 12m diameter hull. Additionally, 0.85m diameter payloads could be developed from UVLS payloads but adapted for underwater launch -- YJ-18 and YJ-21 (more importantly), and future UVLS weapons could all be implemented.
A weapon like YJ-21 would also have quite useful ranges likely in excess of 1,000km if longstanding rumours are to be believed.
In other words, tripacking 0.85m weapons helps to use the space of a multipack tube efficiently, while each individual weapon is still fairly capable and useful, and also while providing decent overall magazine size.
In fact, I think going any smaller than 0.85m might not be worth it (unless they want to carry only LACMs which might be smaller in diameter and enable carriage of 6 or 7 per tube, but that's a different topic), which of course is why I am not considering 20cm diameter payloads which would be able to use all of the volume much more efficiently with large magazine sizes but where an individual 20cm diameter payload would be ludicrously useless.
That takes us to the dual pack situation -- imo a 0.96m diameter weapon is not significantly more capable than a 0.85m weapon by volume to warrant development nor to warrant dual packing.
Volume for a missile corresponds to payload, propellant (and thus range), among other things, keeping other factors constant.
A 0.96m diameter weapon has a volume of 6.15m^3, and a 0.85m diameter weapon has a volume of 4.82m^3, i.e.: by volume it's only 27.6% larger. The development cost for a weapon that is only over a quarter larger in volume, and having to only be able to dual pack such a weapon, with a volume usage percentage of 43.5%, strikes me as not a wise use of money and resources.
OTOH, a 1.8m diameter weapon has a volume of 21.6m^3, which is 250% larger by volume than a 0.96m diameter weapon (6.15m^3), and 348% larger by volume than a 0.85m diameter weapon (4.82m^3) -- meaning that a 1.8m diameter weapon has a lot, lot more payload, and a lot, lot more propellant to work with, which of course corresponds to greater range and a heavier warhead, among other things. And of course it also has a high volume usage percentage of 76.3%, minimizing wastage of space.
Now, as you pointed out, a 1.8m diameter weapon does mean you'll be having a much lower magazine size, but a 1.8m diameter weapon would only be used for certain targets in certain conditions. With a hypersonic glide payload on a 1.8m diameter missile, they could likely start to approach your usual ICBM category ranges (like near 8000km), which opens up many many targets that an acoustically competitive and modern SSN could strike, at great distances from the target (and thus preserving the safety of the launch SSN as well). For those that have discussed means of striking the CONTUS west coast, it means they can just be on the edge of the central pacific and be able to launch at those distances without having to get closer past Hawaii, which could be quite important at an earlier stage of a conflict where certain key lynchpin targets may be considered high value.
OTOH, 0.96m diameter weapons would only offer a marginally more capable weapon than a 0.85m diameter weapon, yet with a significantly lower magazine size that is two thirds the size.
A 1.8m diameter weapon would be much much more capable than a 0.85m diameter weapon, with a magazine size that is only one third the size; but I think the capability of the weapon would be more than worth it.
Of course this is all just a thought experiment.
I personally think that if they do go with a ~2m multipack tube, a tripack ~0.85m configuration should definitely be pursued either way (and the papers seem to allude that they're investigating that route).
If they do make the tripack tube modular and able to carry additional payloads, I just think a dual pack load isn't worth it as the minor capability increase won't be worth developing a new bespoke weapon and the dualpack tube configuration to hold it.
If there are concerns about limitations for magazine size for a 1.8m diameter weapon, that can be quite easily managed by:
- recognizing the 1.8m diameter weapon is only for long range higher value targets
- having a single submarine carry a combination of 1.8m diameter weapons in single tubes, and a 0.85m diameter weapons in tripack tubes (e.g.: a hypothetical 09V with eight 2m tubes, could carry four 1.8m diameter weapons in four tubes, and twelve 0.85m diameter weapons in the other four tubes)
- and of course, future lengthened higher VLS capacity variants of 09V could be developed to have 10, 12 or 14 tubes, which would offer up even more options for mixing and matching. If anything, the more tubes a submarine has, the more important it is to try to maximize the total "volume usage percentage" in terms of tube space