It is plausible that there are more than 8 09IV family SSBNs, but based on how difficult it is to quantify and track them, I wouldn't bet my house on it and I certainly wouldn't use outlets like military watch magazine as a supporting source.
09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter SinoSoldier
- Start date
It is plausible that there are more than 8 09IV family SSBNs, but based on how difficult it is to quantify and track them, I wouldn't bet my house on it and I certainly wouldn't use outlets like military watch magazine as a supporting source.
The tugs have entered the east graving dock this morning and looks like they've dragged something to the south side of the North pier - the usual spot for new boats to be taken to.
They removed the gate at around 0250 UTC, with BT1H entering at around 0320 UTC
They had the sub over at the southside at 0420 UTC
They then returned to the graving dock, this time BCCY entering (maybe to help with the floating barge.)
Full routes for the two here
No sat imagery available for today as yet.
They removed the gate at around 0250 UTC, with BT1H entering at around 0320 UTC
They had the sub over at the southside at 0420 UTC
They then returned to the graving dock, this time BCCY entering (maybe to help with the floating barge.)
Full routes for the two here
No sat imagery available for today as yet.
I'd say there are just the six - there's zero evidence saying otherwise.
That would be my bet as well if I was forced to put money on it.
But with nuclear submarines I tend to acknowledge a degree of "opsec and lack of consistent imagery means we're obliged to treat the confidence interval a bit larger," even if I don't actually believe it myself.
Righty ho!
I've got 30cm imagery from yesterday now - but as you know, because of widespread sharing on Social media of my images without credit, I'm not sharing it.
But.......
It's a 093B in the east graving dock.
There's also a 093A here now. As there's no sub at the west halls, there's a strong chance this was what was sticking out on the 5th in the low res imagery.
So, 093B has been moved today. It has no shrouds, but was in the water in the image rather than the dock being dry. The VLS area was also uncovered and a complete hull. Whether this means it is a new one or not cannot be confirmed at this time. If it gets the usual treatment of a new one, then we'll know.
Here's some maps - easier than describing the situation (sorry I'm not sharing the image but it costs me money and I don't want anyone taking the credit with no payment to me)
I've got 30cm imagery from yesterday now - but as you know, because of widespread sharing on Social media of my images without credit, I'm not sharing it.
But.......
It's a 093B in the east graving dock.
There's also a 093A here now. As there's no sub at the west halls, there's a strong chance this was what was sticking out on the 5th in the low res imagery.
So, 093B has been moved today. It has no shrouds, but was in the water in the image rather than the dock being dry. The VLS area was also uncovered and a complete hull. Whether this means it is a new one or not cannot be confirmed at this time. If it gets the usual treatment of a new one, then we'll know.
Here's some maps - easier than describing the situation (sorry I'm not sharing the image but it costs me money and I don't want anyone taking the credit with no payment to me)
Forgot to say, it was likely the 093A that was taken out on the 5th by BT1H as this the location it goes to that day
If you like these maps - I can continue to do them as things change
If you like these maps - I can continue to do them as things change
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The original source for that Military Watch Magazine article is this one tweet (yes, just ONE):
However, by judging the interaction between @Blitzo and that guy when @Blitzo was trying to correct him/her - I can say that he/she has very little solid idea of what he/she's talking about, let alone his attempts at flattering @Blitzo being rather cringeworthy.
Sorry to say, but he/she must not be taken as a dependable and reliable source of information on military-related affairs.
But then, I suppose some military news authors/outlets today are so starved of clicks and likes that they would rather take any random's Tweet and invent some news out of it.
In fact, the information on the size of China's nuclear-powered submarine fleet that is already in water today (i.e. in active service with PLAN + still in fitting-out stages at the shipyard) that is available right now that can be deemed as acceptable is as follows:
- 093/A SSN = 6-8 boats
- 093B SSN = 8-10 boats
- 094/A SSBN = 6-8 boats
Total: 20-26 boats
So where the hell did that guy even get that "34 nuclear submarines in active service" figure from? His/her a$$?
If the last 094 SSBN was constructed back in 2018 - Then what was that boat to the left of this April 2021 photo?
Moreover, I think this factor needs to be stressed - The number of SSBNs procured by the PLAN is primarily dependent on how many nuclear warheads the PLAN CMC intends to deploy as China's sea-based nuclear deterrence.
Given that land-based facilities (i.e. silos and TELs) are very much the dominant arm of China's nuclear triad (in fact, far surpassing the aerial and naval arms of the triad), it is no surprise that the PLAN would choose to procure SSBNs at a relatively glacial pace.
Also, with the rumors of the 096 SSBN (with purportedly up to 14 meters of hull diameter) being in the works - Should the PLAN higher ups deem that the wait for the 096 to enter construction to be worth it, then it's once again very normal for the last 094 SSBN to be commissioned back in 2021, and with no new 094 boats constructed ever since.
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I've looked at the 13 Jan imagery in detail now.
I think the 093B in the graving dock is an old one out of the tiling/paint shop rather than a new one. It's in great condition but the fact that the VLS section is complete, with no tarp over it (which the other new ones have had) leads me to think an old one rather than new - with a nice new tile and paint job.
Like I said earlier though, if they start working on it and reveal the VLS section we'll know for sure.
I think the 093B in the graving dock is an old one out of the tiling/paint shop rather than a new one. It's in great condition but the fact that the VLS section is complete, with no tarp over it (which the other new ones have had) leads me to think an old one rather than new - with a nice new tile and paint job.
Like I said earlier though, if they start working on it and reveal the VLS section we'll know for sure.
Why would it need a new tile and paint job when it is at most 3.5 years old?
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