09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[para80]

I have been listening to Australian news on this and they are pretty convinced that there was a submarine there but they just couldn’t get close enough to be sure about it.

either someone in defense department knows for sure and doesn’t want to say or a likely 093A was quiet enough that it couldn’t be tracked or nothing was there.

A few notes:

Defence per their normal guidelines on this does not comment on the presence of foreign submarines they are aware of, at least for the duration of an event (the PLAN cruise is ongoing). They also do not comment on own (or partnered) submarines for the same reasons.

In Estimates (a public hearing discussing unclassified information) RAN leadership, when asked, said "We do not know whether or not a submarine is part of the group.". Considering Estimates still expects officials to answer truthfully/to best knowledge (yes there are technically consequences if they do not), if someone in the department "knows for sure" that a Chinese submarine was present, the most appropriate answer would be "I cannot comment on operations/classified information" or similar phrasing. This answer was used repeatedly in the past on known (by Defence) facts outside of Estimates clearance. It wasnt used in this case.

Personally my impression or deduction is they are truthfully unsure, but that possiblity also very much includes that they assess with high confidence that no Chinese submarine is in the area.

What Australian media thinks on the matter is not really of any bearing. They would not be told by relevant sources, even as some sort of politicial leak. Its far too sensitive information.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

I have been listening to Australian news on this and they are pretty convinced that there was a submarine there but they just couldn’t get close enough to be sure about it.

either someone in defense department knows for sure and doesn’t want to say or a likely 093A was quiet enough that it couldn’t be tracked or nothing was there.

certainly, this won’t be the last time we see a task force like this. So submarines will be coming along more often in the future. There is the problem that they don’t have enough “quiet” subs as of now. So I hope they can develop combat capability with 093B soon, maybe in 2 to 3 years. So more will be available for these deployments.

I listened to this and it was entirely a waste of time. They barely touched on submarines and they still think the PLAN is in the early 2010s.

China has more ships but America's are more technically advanced.

I don't really bother with the USN much, does anybody know if they have ships with GaN AESA radars yet or are they still running poverty electronically scanned arrays?

There's no understanding or awareness at any level of the magnitude of threat they're under. They are completely ignorant of the fact that China just launched as many SSNs in two years as AUKUS will get over its multi-decade lifetime, and that these submarines are essentially an extended test run for a monster of a shipyard that's barely started ramping up production.

 

[tphuang]

A few notes:

Defence per their normal guidelines on this does not comment on the presence of foreign submarines they are aware of, at least for the duration of an event (the PLAN cruise is ongoing). They also do not comment on own (or partnered) submarines for the same reasons.

In Estimates (a public hearing discussing unclassified information) RAN leadership, when asked, said "We do not know whether or not a submarine is part of the group.". Considering Estimates still expects officials to answer truthfully/to best knowledge (yes there are technically consequences if they do not), if someone in the department "knows for sure" that a Chinese submarine was present, the most appropriate answer would be "I cannot comment on operations/classified information" or similar phrasing. This answer was used repeatedly in the past on known (by Defence) facts outside of Estimates clearance. It wasnt used in this case.

Personally my impression or deduction is they are truthfully unsure, but that possiblity also very much includes that they assess with high confidence that no Chinese submarine is in the area.

What Australian media thinks on the matter is not really of any bearing. They would not be told by relevant sources, even as some sort of politicial leak. Its far too sensitive information.

sure, I mean I don't follow Australian media to know the credibility of the security establishment people that they bring onto the programs itself.
Maybe the people they bring on to the program are just saying these things as an expectation of what normally would happen or they base it on conversations with people with more classified info.

My point was does RAN even have the asset in place in Eastern Australia to actually track submarines that are operating 500 miles of its coast. If there is no Collins class around, you are basically using ANZAC frigates and P-8s? It seems that P-8s main goal here is to just follow along the PLAN task group. Unless Anzac class can actually detect nuclear subs from a distant out and cue up P-8, it seems to me that finding something like 093B in the future would be very difficult.

It's not like Australia can surround itself with SOSUS like sensors. Its coastline is huge.

Thats at least one of my theories and its IMO notionally possible a different reactor may have gone onto the A-boats already. But its all totally speculative.

Are you asking about 093A vs the first 093 or later 093A vs earlier 093A or later 093A vs 093B? I think it's reasonable to assume that later 093As would have different reactor than the first 093s, since you are looking at about 12 year gap there, which saw significant progress in China's reactor technology.

Also, Shilao people did say that they are now able to use natural circulation cooling for higher speed than people. That would indicate improvements in reactor technology also.

 

[Gloire_bb]

I don't really bother with the USN much, does anybody know if they have ships with GaN AESA radars yet or are they still running poverty electronically scanned arrays?

SPY-6 is GaN, as are some other modern support arrays(new gen AN/SPS-73, for example).

For China we're more guessing than we truly know(on a level "next one should be GaN"). But either way, they aren't especially old either, and unlikely to be deployed at scale.

 

[para80]

My point was does RAN even have the asset in place in Eastern Australia to actually track submarines that are operating 500 miles of its coast. If there is no Collins class around, you are basically using ANZAC frigates and P-8s? It seems that P-8s main goal here is to just follow along the PLAN task group. Unless Anzac class can actually detect nuclear subs from a distant out and cue up P-8, it seems to me that finding something like 093B in the future would be very difficult.

I wouldnt want to speculate too much. I can say the P-8A was (were) actively engaged in search for a submarine at least during the earlier stage of the Chinese deployment. They did not just track the surface elements.

It's not like Australia can surround itself with SOSUS like sensors. Its coastline is huge.

Yes. However there are efforts to install a SOSUS/IUSS like capability. It will not surround Australia, but it will likely cover the northern approaches. I think much of that remains in the early/planning stages at present though.

Are you asking about 093A vs the first 093 or later 093A vs earlier 093A or later 093A vs 093B?

I am talking relatively undefined about 093A. I wouldnt want to guess where the transition point may have been between individual 093A hulls. My point is more generally apart from the timeframe that the 093A hulls showed an interesting diversity in outer hull design and I am not convinced this is purely down to how to mount a TAS or the like.

But a new reactor and related substantial space-savings seem to me one way to explain the modest (if any) growth of 093B vis a vis a large missile compartment. There are other sections of course where savings can be found, but the propulsion compartment is the most obvious location IMO.

 

[Biscuits]

When the submarine is in its own ship formation, it would be essentially impossible to spot it.

If you know from which direction the fleet is coming, you can insert a SSK like a naval mine to wait for it, but thats hardly possible in such a large open area.

China could have sent one of her older boats as well with the intention to signature trade if US decides to sends the newest Virginia there for Australia's benefit. Basically, going into the soup of ASW to try and find the submarine is not worth it. A sub with disposable signature is either too slow (Collins) or too loud (688i) to enter the PLAN formation. A sub that could conceivably enter and swap signatures with the PLAN submarine is not worth revealing the signature for.