09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[tphuang]

Well this is PLA watching after all, it goes hand in hand with speculation. So long as we all remember these are speculations, and that they are conveyed to any readers, then there shouldn't be a problem.

i think the goal of this forum is to go beyond speculation.

Err I don't think skywatcher's piece was insinuating VLS on a PLAN SSN somehow makes a submarine more advanced or closer to catch up with US SSNs.
Oscar class SSGN could launch massive SLCMs from dedicated tubes before western submarines, that didn't make them any more advanced or quieter (latter being more important) than their western counterparts of the time.

I'm clearly referring to the Chinese bbs, not skywatcher's piece.

As for what the rest of the PLA watching community thinks about SSNs and VLS; imo there are definitely some who would like 093B to have a VLS just because it is considered a staple for modern construction SSNs, but I don't think many of them would be serious enough to consider VLS more important than say, better acoustic stealth. Nor do i think we can conflate the persistent rumours of VLS on 093B as only from overeager fanboys.

The desire to see VLS is great on Chinese bbs. VLS is something tangible that once established, you can check off. Noise level is something that ordinary people like us don't have easy access to. And people can easily dismiss ONI figures.

It's funny you bring up 032, because 032 goes to demonstrate how easy it is to miss VLS on a submarine, it doesn't make the reverse true

My point is not that 093B does not have VLS, but rather it's completely indeterminate at this point. if PLAN does put it on, that simply means they believe it makes more sense to use the 4 m extra space they have 093B for that vs something else.

 

[tphuang]

well, this speculations and educated guess of PLAN hardware make the discussions very interesting, nothing really is certain, even you could argue whether Yuan really have AIP? nobody has seen the AIP module on Yuan

There have been numerous papers on 717 Institute's development of AIP and reports of this new domestic engine option on Yuan. There are definitely some solid support for that where it's not complete speculations. But yes, you can argue whether Yuan has AIP.

True VLS doesn't make a sub quieter but is a must have feature for saturation attack. Topedo launched missile is a bottleneck.

VLS not only does not make sub quieter, but it takes space away that otherwise could've made sub quieter. As for saturation attack, PLAN has plenty of missile launching platforms. And we've seen plenty of news on them. But for all the torpedoes it's developing, there isn't any news on them. What does that tell you?

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[Blitzo]

i think the goal of this forum is to go beyond speculation.

Sure, but we all have to start somewhere. Otherwise this forum would only discuss things once we have solid photos or official confirmations.
What we know about 055 started off as speculation in about 2012 and we've slowly built up from speculation to confident confirmation.
You were around for J-20's speculation phase when it was known as J-XX in the mid 2000s, and your blog at the time was quite useful in acknowledging the speculations as something to be aware of.

PLA watching I think is kind of similar to the scientific method where everyone brings together a variety of speculation and opinions that may be backed up by some forms of evidence and subject them to peer review to determine the likelihood of it being real.

I'm clearly referring to the Chinese bbs, not skywatcher's piece.

The desire to see VLS is great on Chinese bbs. VLS is something tangible that once established, you can check off. Noise level is something that ordinary people like us don't have easy access to. And people can easily dismiss ONI figures.

I don't disagree that many chinese PLA watchers would like to see VLS (and I can't blame them, given the capability it can provide both on 093B but more importantly for future larger SSNs), but the question is whether that has translated into an unrealistic expectation or whether the original speculation was based on something more insider and solid.

My point is not that 093B does not have VLS, but rather it's completely indeterminate at this point. if PLAN does put it on, that simply means they believe it makes more sense to use the 4 m extra space they have 093B for that vs something else.

There's been a bit of discussion regarding that; you'd think if 093B's acoustics were not to a level they were somewhat comfortable with then they'd probably use the extra space for sound dampening instead. Like you said it might mean the PLAN simply values having a few VLS on 093B... but given they won't be present in that high numbers, would such a trade off be logical?
I also find it a bit interesting that they're producing 3 093Bs in fairly rapid succession. Of course, this may be a material need where their old 091s are nearing retirement and they would have to just field the best SSN design they can get, but at the same time fairly rapid production does make me wonder if they're more confident in 093B as a design as well.

 

[Skywatcher]

We have humps on yuan and kilo. Do they look like they have VLS?

Having VLS modules installed in the same space in 093 means you have less space for everything else, which adversely affect 093B's noise level. Remember, the main problem with 093 is that it's very noisy. The first problem PLAN needs to solve is significantly lowering its noise level. They don't lack launch platforms for missiles.


Or maybe state the very real possibility that there is no VLS.

What a moment.

I see what you're talking about (the Type 093B and VLS caption).

That's a bloody error from entering the caption into the blog, from the copy! The 24 VLS was meant to talk about the Type 095's improvements (I'm including VLS due to the USCC/ONI/DOD reports listing it as a SSGN). Dagnabit!

Thanks to all for spotting it, am changing now.

How embarassing.

 

[Jeff Head]

The backbone of this forum is its professionalism and willingness not to become simply a fan boy site,or place to spout every rumor that comes out of China BBS.

The backbone of this forum, and its reputation, depends on us critically assessing these things and calling what is pure smoke and mirrors, or vaporware, or simple speculation what it is.

That is what Tphuang is trying to do.

Now, raising a question is fine...but we cannot run with something because someone, or some site, "thinks," it may be this or that.

 

[Blitzo]

The backbone of this forum is its professionalism and willingness not to become simply a fan boy site,or place to spout every rumor that comes out of China BBS.

The backbone of this forum, and its reputation, depends on us critically assessing these things and calling what is pure smoke and mirrors, or vaporware, or simple speculation what it is.

That is what Tphuang is trying to do.

Now, raising a question is fine...but we cannot run with something because someone, or some site, "thinks," it may be this or that.

Absolutely, which is why I use the word "peer review".

We tend to only consider rumours that are persistent and/or supported by some kind of evidence, or possibly from individuals that are considered somewhat reliable -- but even then none of us are so confident in a rumour that we are willing to accept it as gospel. There is always an understanding that what we're hearing or reading may not be true or not entirely accurate, and so long as we all remember that it should be fine.

The issue I have with tphuang's suggestion is that if we remove out the entire speculation process of observing new PLA developments we are basically cutting off not only the base of which we build up new knowledge from but also the lifeblood of this forum and PLA watching overall.
We start with smoke and mirrors and then from there we drill down to something substantial and solid... but we need to have some smoke, and a few mirrors to start off with imo.

 

[antiterror13]

I think it was just misunderstanding between Tphuang and me & Blitzo. Tphuang is highly respected by me and most members here. I believe his intention is very good to keep this forum in good shape, and me & Blizo intentions are also good to make this forum interesting & dynamic by discussing some rumours. ........ Just move on

 

[by78]

What sub is this? Note the interesting diving plane design. Someone on FYJS claims this is a Chinese nuclear submarine... but I somehow doubt that.

 

[kent]

What sub is this? Note the interesting diving plane design. Someone on FYJS claims this is a Chinese nuclear submarine... but I somehow doubt that.

it is not the new nuc sub, it is a old japanese sub Yushio-class
depends on the style of the sailplane, things on the top of sail, the ladder
forgive my poor English expression

 

[Jeff Head]

What sub is this? Note the interesting diving plane design. Someone on FYJS claims this is a Chinese nuclear submarine... but I somehow doubt that.

The lighting makes the dive plane look less wide than it really is.

But that is a Japanese diesel/electric sub, the Yushio class. Ten of them were commissioned between 1980 and 1989.

They have all been decommissioned now, the last of which was decommissioned in March 2008.