09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Maikeru]

Maybe something, maybe nothing, but today's Sentinel image (overcast but shapes can be discerned) appears to show:

1. Something about 09IIIB size in the launching drydock, in the exact same place we say the first of this year's new boats;
2. Maybe a hull section going into the southern assembly hall; and
3. Work continuing on the new building (function unknown but possible module fabrication), appears to be getting roof fitted.

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It looks like whatever it is appeared between 19th July (last clear Sentinel image) and 8th August (false colour here):

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[Maikeru]

Finally the money shot:

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So, is this 09IIIB #7? Can't say for sure - it could be an earlier boat put in the launching drydock for some reason. However, it is certainly possible that this is #7 since May 2022, i.e. 25 months ago, or 1 boat every ~4 months.

Amazing that this hasn't generated more interest, even here on SDF.

Also confirms the new fabrication hall is halfway roofed now.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Finally the money shot:

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So, is this 09IIIB #7? Can't say for sure - it could be an earlier boat put in the launching drydock for some reason. However, it is certainly possible that this is #7 since May 2022, i.e. 25 months ago, or 1 boat every ~4 months.

Amazing that this hasn't generated more interest, even here on SDF.

Roughly measuring from the bow end of the submarine to the other side of the overhead crane (since its stern end is covered by the overhead crane) produces a length of about 115 meters. This almost matches the length of 093-class that is available in public domain.

If this is not a recurring 093B unit, then yes - We are indeed looking at the 7th 093B SSN built.

And if pop3 and Patch's "prophecies" are accurate, we're still one boat short (alongside two 094B SSBNs and the first ever 095 SSN).

Also confirms the new fabrication hall is halfway roofed now.

Given the expected concentration of SSN and SSBN construction activities at this sole location in all of China, they better have some of the most capable SAM units and coastal defense units in the PLA to defend this very shipyard.

And/or, they should find another military shipyard that can be upgraded for SSN and SSBN construction. I'm thinking of Jiangnan (considering that they aren't just getting slated for SSK-N construction, but will also become one of the two shipyards in China that will build CVNs in the future).

 

[para80]

I think right now expanding maintenance capability is probably a bigger concern. Production in a shooting war of the kind that needs to be assumed for say a confrontation with the US is probably not an immediate issue. But having your nukes not go all the way back to Bohai for scheduled maintenance would certainly help. Hence I assume some of the work happening on Hainan.

 

[Blitzo]

Finally the money shot:

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So, is this 09IIIB #7? Can't say for sure - it could be an earlier boat put in the launching drydock for some reason. However, it is certainly possible that this is #7 since May 2022, i.e. 25 months ago, or 1 boat every ~4 months.

Amazing that this hasn't generated more interest, even here on SDF.

Also confirms the new fabrication hall is halfway roofed now.

I think the usability of Sentinel and the image quality are probably the greatest impediments to it having more wider circulation and use.


It's really somewhat bizarre that the usual suspects like thinktanks and bigger defense outlets aren't using some of their satellite imagery bux on Bohai. Or maybe they've tried to but there are other reasons why they can't.

 

[ismellcopium]

And if pop3 and Patch's "prophecies" are accurate, we're still one boat short

Another expansion at Huludao shipyard photographed by satellite. Saw @Deino retweeted this Sutton's tweet, so I'll just post it here.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1610936621834305540

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Apparently a new harbor is under construction by extending out from the old submarine construction hall at Huludao.
View attachment 104433

What's more interesting is Patch's reply to the tweet:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1610945872291848193

If Patch's information is accurate:
1. As far as what is known, at present, that there are 9x 093 & 093As in active service with the PLAN, with 1x 093B said to be fitting out at Huludao. So an additional 9x 093Bs to the fleet are indeed a huge increase of PLAN's future SSN fleet size (19 boats in total), especially if it could be done within short periods of time.

2. The two additional 094s with enlarged launch tubes (let's just call these boats 094Bs) would mean China's credible underwater nuclear deterrence fleet would be expanded to 8 boats in total in the future.

2.5. But man, when can we have our 096s...?

3. Perhaps the sole 095 said to begin construction/be under construction in Huludao is likely a test boat for the PLAN to test and verify the onboard facilities and technologies? Because I believe that if the PLAN is fully satisfied with the design and engineering of the new SSN class, then more than one 095s should be ordered instead.

Shouldn't it be 3 short?
Also what did the tweet with the claim say in full again (timeline etc)? Forgot.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Scanned photo of a 093/A SSN from a magazine. Posted by @边城扫图 on Weibo.

 

[bebops]

It seems like Caterpillar Drive is the next big trend. Does China has this in their submarine?

We know X rudder has existed for China for their new sub.

095 is most likely a X rudder nuclear sub, not conventional. That is the incremental changes we expect.

 

[Blitzo]

It seems like Caterpillar Drive is the next big trend. Does China has this in their submarine?

What is a caterpillar drive?
That's from the hunt for red october, a work of fiction, not real life.

Unless you're referring to magnetohydrodynamic drive, which is just a concept and it's not the "next big trend". There are no proper nuclear submarine designs in the works that is known or rumoured of that will implement MHD in the foreseeable future.

We know X rudder has existed for China for their new sub.

095 is most likely a X rudder nuclear sub, not conventional. That is the incremental changes we expect.

No one has suggested that 09V will be a conventional submarine. It's been known since before the designation was confirmed, that it would be nuclear just based on naming patterns.

there are a number of features that are in the running for being on 09V. Among them included is the relatively high possibility of X tails yes

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Scanned photo of a 094A SSBN during a commissioning ceremony at Sanya in April 2021 from a magazine. Posted by @空警世界 on Weibo.