09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I really don't see a hybrid SSK/N making much sense on cost-effectiveness grounds. I can see that PLAN might go for a small pure SSN like Rubis/Amethyst just to get numbers up quickly. This could potentially be built at Wuchang.

Same thoughts. A hybrid just kinda doesn't make sense when Rubis and Suffren already provided a pretty solid example/guide on how to design and build a small-sized, true-purpose SSN.

We do know that the 039A/B/C SSK displaces around 3500-3600 tons, and expecting the upcoming 093B SSN to displace somewhere around 9000-10000 tons. *Hence, this small-sized SSN MIGHT weigh somewhere around 4000-5000 tons...

In the meantime - Other than Wuchang, since Jiangnan is/has:
1. Known to be designated as one of the shipyards responsible for the construction of CVNs in the future, and
2. Been involved in the construction of SSKs as well, alongside Wuchang -
Therefore, Jiangnan can also be contracted to build these small SSNs as well.

If things are tight (i.e. Indopac war is deemed inevitable very soon), then perhaps Dalian too can be involved in pumping out these small-sized SSNs, since Dalian are known to be designated for constructing CVNs in the future as well. Although, it should be noted that Dalian is not known to have been involved in any submarine construction work before.

*Italiac is my own thoughts.

 

[Maikeru]

Same thoughts. A hybrid just kinda doesn't make sense when Rubis and Suffren already provided a pretty solid example/guide on how to design and build a small-sized, true-purpose SSN.

We do know that the 039A/B/C SSK displaces around 3500-3600 tons, and expecting the upcoming 093B SSN to displace somewhere around 9000-10000 tons. *Hence, my gut feeling tells me that this small-sized SSN could weigh somewhere around 4000-5000 tons... but that's just me.

In the meantime - Other than Wuchang, since Jiangnan is/has:
1. Known to be designated as one of the shipyards responsible for the construction of CVNs in the future, and
2. Been involved in the construction of SSKs as well, alongside Wuchang -
Therefore, Jiangnan can also be contracted to build these small SSNs as well.

If things are tight (i.e. Indopac war is deemed inevitable very soon), then perhaps Dalian too can be involved in pumping out these small-sized SSNs, since Dalian are known to be designated for constructing CVNs in the future as well. Although, it should be noted that Dalian is not known to have been involved in any submarine construction work before.

*Italiac is my own thoughts.

4-5kt would put them in Suffren territory - and also Swiftsure/Trafalgar territory. Rubis has a submerged displacement of only 2600t!

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

4-5kt would put them in Suffren territory - and also Swiftsure/Trafalgar territory. Rubis has a submerged displacement of only 2600t!

Yes.

However, the 039C SSK is already displacing somewhere around 3500-3600 tons (when submerged).

Therefore, I don't think that it would be feasible for the small-sized SSN to have an even lower (fully-submerged) displacement than the 039C, let alone anywhere close to that of the Rubis.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

The third 09IIIB has yet to be confirmed, at best there are circumstantial indicators based on satellite imagery, but it is indeed yet to be definitively checked off as having happened.

Personally I think people shouldn't read too much into the significance of this news a little bit -- yes the CEO of Huludao saying that they'll have the heaviest and most arduous construction/work in 14-5 and into the future is notable, but that is something everyone's been predicting for years.
"We'll be building a lot more stuff soon" is basically all that can be surmised, which isn't new to us.




In the long term I expect the PLAN subsurface fleet to be more heavily "proper nuclear," but at this stage UUVs are yet to be sufficiently mature that they can replace the role of capable SSKs/mini-nukes in the shorter range, lower performance submarine mission.
In a couple decades, I could certainly see new build SSKs/mini-nukes being replaced with large UUVs, but at the moment they are still in their infancy, and the PLAN is also still in the process of building up its "proper nuclear" fleet as well.

None of this will preclude the importance of advanced and comprehensive networking, but if they want a robust, reliable subsurface warfighting capability within the 1IC, then for the foreseeable future they'll still have to buy SSKs/mini-nukes.

Armed UUVs are too hard to manage for complex SSK/N level tasks because unlike USVs and UAVs there's no way to reliably communicate with them and sonar is far more ambiguous than optical or radar. Even regular subs are 100% radio silent without surfacing and rely on the internal navigation capabilities of the crew.

The only way to effectively get underwater armed forces is to put people in metal cylinders.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Same thoughts. A hybrid just kinda doesn't make sense when Rubis and Suffren already provided a pretty solid example/guide on how to design and build a small-sized, true-purpose SSN.

We do know that the 039A/B/C SSK displaces around 3500-3600 tons, and expecting the upcoming 093B SSN to displace somewhere around 9000-10000 tons. *Hence, this small-sized SSN MIGHT weigh somewhere around 4000-5000 tons...

In the meantime - Other than Wuchang, since Jiangnan is/has:
1. Known to be designated as one of the shipyards responsible for the construction of CVNs in the future, and
2. Been involved in the construction of SSKs as well, alongside Wuchang -
Therefore, Jiangnan can also be contracted to build these small SSNs as well.

If things are tight (i.e. Indopac war is deemed inevitable very soon), then perhaps Dalian too can be involved in pumping out these small-sized SSNs, since Dalian are known to be designated for constructing CVNs in the future as well. Although, it should be noted that Dalian is not known to have been involved in any submarine construction work before.

*Italiac is my own thoughts.

I think a SMR powered Stirling engine would be of comparable dimensions to a LOX/diesel fired Stirling engine. A proven 10 MW thermal SMR is only 2 m tall 1.8 m OD. Powerplant dimensions might be a bit bigger but no LOX or excess diesel tanks.

 

[abc123]

Don't forget to include price for steam turbine, coolant pumps, etc. You will still need Diesel generators as backup power as well.

Of course, I meant the whole shebang.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

How would a small SSN compare to a regular sized SSN (as well as to modern SSK) in capabilities, particularly in terms of quietness and speed? What are the main capabilities that would need to be compromised in scaling down the size of a SSN?

 

[gelgoog]

It is harder to reduce noise levels on smaller subs. And modern subs increasingly have VLS modules in them to launch missiles. A smaller submarine would have less cells. Endurance might also be lower since you have less space for crew and consumables.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Looks like @lylegoldstein (and also CSIS) has touched upon the viability of Chinese SSNs launching standoff strikes against US targets far beyond the FIC with sub-launched conventional ballistic/hypersonic missiles:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1687650384737673216

To be honest, unless nuclear exchange has begun, I highly doubt that Chinese SSNs would attack US cities. Key military targets, e.g. air bases, naval bases, shipyards, fuel depots and aircraft manufacturing plants are the more probable targets for standoff strikes by Chinese SSNs.

This idea have been discussed in earnest in this thread early this year, particularly by @Patchwork_Chimera before the Discord leak purge came in.

Since all the posts made by Patch has been deleted, I'll have to copy-&-paste Patch's quoted post when being replied.

Well, that's easier said than done. Strictly speaking, everyone wants to avoid unfavorable engagements, but actually doing so is very difficult when facing a capable adversary. USW (and to a lesser extent, ASW) is one domain in which we've retained most of our advantages over the PLAN, and that will continue being true for - at least - most of this decade.

As far a chokepoints go, it's a double edged sword. In the same way that 1IC chokepoints don't only affect the PLA, expeditionary chokepoints don't only affect the US. Anything worth sinking is worth protecting, and until 09V comes online, 09IIIBs are still extremely vulnerable to USN USW/ASW outside of the 2IC.

Just speaking from my own (comparatively limited) experience specifically dealing with USW CONEMPs, their largest contribution is achieved by operating in the blue waters between the 1IC and 2IC. This is especially true if the PLAN pursues SL(ASh)BMs roughly similar to our own I-CPS procurement (which we know is, at a minimum, being seriously explored). Relevant to that, we are expecting future PLAN SSNs to host a new, relatively large VLS/CLS system to employ these new munitions, which aligns with prior talk from the grapevine about a 1.2 meter diameter, 1500nm-class range AShBM being developed by the PLAN.

This is a very impactful capability uplift, and it's something we're seriously concerned about over here. With such a munition, PLAN SSNs within the 1IC become viable ASuW shooters for surface targets out to Guam. When patrolling between the 1IC and 2nd IC, with effective C3, they create the threat of unknown-axis AShBM salvos from well outside a USN formation's organic ASW coverage. As long as the 09IIIBs operate within range of land-based or surface-based ASW support, USN SSNs pose a significantly reduced threat to the 09IIIBs, with the caveat that some degree of attrition would be a near-certainty.

Beyond ASuW, if the munition is capable of prosecuting ashore targets, things open up even further.

(Illistration unavailable, unfortunately)

This is a quick and dirty visual of what 1500nm standoffs from Misawa, Guam, and Darwin look like. With some caveats, PLAN SSNs with SLBMs alter these locations' threat profile from primarily single-axis, medium to long response window threats (with H-6K/KD-20 salvos being particularly "visible") to include unknown-axis, short response window SLBM salvos. This also has outsized effects even beyond the actual SSN. It's difficult to overstate how much impact the threat geometry has on an IAMDS, so introducing the need to detect, track, cue, launch, prosecute, and assess incoming munitions (especially BMs) from multiple axes simultaneously (with potentially minimal reaction time) will impose its own "virtual attrition" on an IAMDS compared to single-axis threats.

Not great.

To make things worse, as more capable SSNs begin to enter service (and as crew proficiency solidifies), it will become feasible to operate beyond the 2IC (and therefore beyond PLAN/AF support). Once this happens, we start to have serious issues.

(Illustration unavailable again, unfortunately)

This is a similar low-effort visual as the last, but for Pearl, SD, Bremerton, and Eielson.

At the moment, sans AEGIS BMD equipped CRUDES, there is practically nothing in the way of an AMDS integral to these installations. I'm sure it goes without saying that PLA fires being able to reach out and touch us on our home turf is uh... sub-optimal.

While it would be vastly more challenging - if possible at all - to conduct dynamic ASuW with these munitions at this kind of distance (due to C3 and targeting limitations), the traditional SSN threat remains. This threat requires us to pull away forces that could be contributing to 7FLT operations, and to instead task them with ASW operations under 3FLT.

Beyond ASuW (again), the STW element also poses tremendous implications. Pearl, SD, and Bremerton are very juicy targets, and the ability to successfully destroy or disable CVNs (and ofc the myriad of CRUDES not underway) in port is the kind of game-changer that Xi Jinping probably asked Santa for Christmas. As it stands, there's just not much we can really do about a concerted attack like this, assuming we don't have extensive prior knowledge.

In order to rectify this threat before it truly matures, we will need to stand up an extensive IAMDS capable of defending our critical installations from multiple axes simultaneously, and with minimal reaction time. That's no small task. Alternatively, we could maintain AEGIS BMD equipped CRUDES patrols in the vicinity of these targets, but that would come at the cost of more (badly needed) major surface combatants not available for operations in 7FLT.

Altogether, unless we're content to just watch as we experience Tora Tora Tora with Chinese Characteristics, these new threat vectors will slowly force us to make difficult, undesired decisions/tradeoffs in order to address them.

(smh, I wish the PLA just stayed on defense. it's sooo much more fun when you can hit the other guy but he can't hit you)

 

[grulle]

do we know how many VLS do the 093B have?