09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Huludao launched a new 093B today, though I find it hard to tell from low-res satellite photo.

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So we evolved from hunting whales and sharks to hunting fishes...

 

[sunnymaxi]

So we evolved from hunting whales and sharks to hunting fishes...

real game has begun.

launched first type 093B in first month of 2023. now interesting thing is, how many Subs they launch in this year.

 

[AndrewS]

real game has begun.

launched first type 093B in first month of 2023. now interesting thing is, how many Subs they launch in this year.

When did it start module assembly?

 

[Blitzo]

When did it start module assembly?

They build SSNs under cover in the assembly halls, so we will never get to know when a newly built SSN starts module assembly.

 

[AndrewS]

They build SSNs under cover in the assembly halls, so we will never get to know when a newly built SSN starts module assembly.

I recall one of the modules was spotted in the open when it was being moved?

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I recall one of the modules was spotted in the open when it was being moved?

Yes, but unless any one of us here is working in that section of Huludao, nobody knows which section of the 093 is that module for. We don't know if the module is the first/second/third/fourth/fifth/etc to arrive at the site either.

Therefore, I don't think having a satellite view of the module at that site could provide anything authoritatively indicative of the timetable of the submarine's production, especially when much of the construction process is hidden underneath the assembly hall's roof.

 

[Blitzo]

I recall one of the modules was spotted in the open when it was being moved?

We spotted "something that looks like might be a hull module".

But we do not know which boat it corresponded to and for which boat it started assembly with (nor do we even know if it was even a hull module for an actual submarine or if it was perhaps a demo module or something).


The covered assembly halls means it is impossible for us to track construction/assembly of modules into submarines.

 

[Maikeru]

Clouds must have cleared for a second Sentinel pass:

 

[Blitzo]

Clouds must have cleared for a second Sentinel pass:
View attachment 104858

That looks to me like the same picture as posted above, just wider.

Check the shadow and the location and geometry of ice and stuff -- it looks the same.

 

[abc123]

Agreed, but I do think 10 SSN equivalents per year would be excessive.

If you're going to ramp up the labour force and supply chain to 10 per year, you want to keep this going for 10 years at least because it is so specialised. That means you end up with 100 after just 10 years. Then you face a steep ramp down to something more sustainable, which I judge as around 4-6 per year.

If you were to ramp to 8 instead of 10 per year, it just extends the timeframe to get to the required numbers.
For example, to reach 50, it would take 6 years instead of 5 years. For 100, it would be 12.5 years instead of 10 years

It also makes recruitment and training demands easier.

10 SSNs per year is so fantastic number that I think nobody normal would claim that. That's more than the rest of the world combined and probably double that.
And all coming from a country that has built, how many, 10-11 SSNs during last 40 years. And 40 SSKs in about 40 years. So, no, IMHO- it's a pipe dream. Even the USN during the maximum Cold War production produced in average, 3-4 per year. And they had much more experience with SSN production than China.
Personally, if the PLAN get's just one SSN per year, I would be very pleased. Maybe once when they have satisfactory project, increase to 2 or even maybe a 3 per year, but that's for late 2030s...