09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Maikeru]

10 SSNs per year is so fantastic number that I think nobody normal would claim that. That's more than the rest of the world combined and probably double that.
And all coming from a country that has built, how many, 10-11 SSNs during last 40 years. And 40 SSKs in about 40 years. So, no, IMHO- it's a pipe dream. Even the USN during the maximum Cold War production produced in average, 3-4 per year. And they had much more experience with SSN production than China.
Personally, if the PLAN get's just one SSN per year, I would be very pleased. Maybe once when they have satisfactory project, increase to 2 or even maybe a 3 per year, but that's for late 2030s...

No point in building all the vast new facilities for both SSN and SSK if they were only going to build 1 or 2 a year of each. And the China of 40years ago - or even 10 years ago - is very different in terms of technology and industrial capability to the China of today.

 

[BoraTas]

No point in building all the vast new facilities for both SSN and SSK if they were only going to build 1 or 2 a year of each. And the China of 40years ago - or even 10 years ago - is very different in terms of technology and industrial capability to the China of today.

After what China did with surface combatants and high-speed rail, and what it is doing with nuclear reactors, I think 4 SSNs per year by 2025 is a very real possibility.

 

[Blitzo]

10 SSNs per year is so fantastic number that I think nobody normal would claim that. That's more than the rest of the world combined and probably double that.
And all coming from a country that has built, how many, 10-11 SSNs during last 40 years. And 40 SSKs in about 40 years. So, no, IMHO- it's a pipe dream. Even the USN during the maximum Cold War production produced in average, 3-4 per year. And they had much more experience with SSN production than China.
Personally, if the PLAN get's just one SSN per year, I would be very pleased. Maybe once when they have satisfactory project, increase to 2 or even maybe a 3 per year, but that's for late 2030s...

The future production rate of PLAN SSNs that are being estimate is dependent on the facilities that they have built and the floor space for final assembly available..

I personally do agree that sustaining 10 SSNs a year seems a bit much, but I wouldn't be surprised if their annual SSN output is much higher than in previous decades, once the facility really hits all cylinders.


Past history is not a guide for the future -- in 2010, the idea of the PLAN within a decade launching 10 destroyers in a year would've also been considered crazy.

We should instead rely on what we can see, and credible rumours.
And we can see that Bohai has massively expanded construction facility and floor space, and we have rumours that the PLAN have iterated and advanced their SSN tech to be okay with finally embarking on mass production.

So the question we have is how many they'll build of each type and how fast they will build them.

 

[Maikeru]

After what China did with surface combatants and high-speed rail, and what it is doing with nuclear reactors, I think 4 SSNs per year by 2025 is a very real possibility.

Or even more, if the political will and the money is there. The new facilities appear to have been set up as a pulsed production line for SS(B)N so they may be able to produce somewhat faster than US yards, say 3 years rather than 4 for a Virginia means 6-7 a year depending on whether the old hall on the West side is still in use.

 

[abc123]

The future production rate of PLAN SSNs that are being estimate is dependent on the facilities that they have built and the floor space for final assembly available..

I personally do agree that sustaining 10 SSNs a year seems a bit much, but I wouldn't be surprised if their annual SSN output is much higher than in previous decades, once the facility really hits all cylinders.


Past history is not a guide for the future -- in 2010, the idea of the PLAN within a decade launching 10 destroyers in a year would've also been considered crazy.

We should instead rely on what we can see, and credible rumours.
And we can see that Bohai has massively expanded construction facility and floor space, and we have rumours that the PLAN have iterated and advanced their SSN tech to be okay with finally embarking on mass production.

So the question we have is how many they'll build of each type and how fast they will build them.

Allright, it remains to be seen. I hope, for China's benefit- that they are able to build as much as you say- they will definitly need them. Now, if two US shipyards are able to produce just 1 SSN annually each, and have big problems in increasing production ( as we see in AUKUS case ) then these Chinese numbers really do seem excessive. For building 10 subs annually, they would need space for about 20-30 submarines concurrently, and that's a very big area.

 

[Blitzo]

Allright, it remains to be seen. I hope, for China's benefit- that they are able to build as much as you say- they will definitly need them. Now, if two US shipyards are able to produce just 1 SSN annually each, and have big problems in increasing production ( as we see in AUKUS case ) then these Chinese numbers really do seem excessive. For building 10 subs annually, they would need space for about 20-30 submarines concurrently, and that's a very big area.

So, personally I don't think they will launch 10 SSNs annually.

However, it is the case that I'm terms of the final assembly halls, there are equivalent floor space slots that seem able to accommodate 20 SSNs with sufficient practical spacing between them to enable work on 20 SSNs simultaneously all at their own respective stages of construction.

Now, I would be very surprised if all 20 slots where used for SSNs (because it'll take a while to spool up to enable all slots to run and also because chances are some would be for SSBNs and so on meaning they'll reduce the SSN equivalent slots). But that is probably where the "up to 10 launched a year" hypothesis comes from.
It is very very unlikely to happen, but it hasn't come out of nowhere.

 

[Maikeru]

We first saw hull sections going into the new halls in November 2020:

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The first sub was launched May 2022:

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If we assume that the first seen sections were for the first launched sub that gives ~18 months in the hall, yielding a maximum annual production rate of 12-14 boats from the new halls alone if they just do SSN not SSBN.

Lay down to launch time is actually similar to recent Virginia class, which then take a further 1-2 years to fit out and do trials and tests before commissioning:

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This would explain the expansion in pier capacity going on at Huludao.

Note some Virginias went from laid down to commissioned in little over 2 years!

 

[Blitzo]

We first saw hull sections going into the new halls in November 2020:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The first sub was launched May 2022:

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If we assume that the first seen sections were for the first launched sub that gives ~18 months in the hall, yielding a maximum annual production rate of 12-14 boats from the new halls alone if they just do SSN not SSBN.

Lay down to launch time is actually similar or only slightly better than recent Virginia class, which then take a further 1-2 years to fit out before commissioning:

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This would explain the expansion in pier capacity going on at Huludao.

As I wrote to AndrewS, we cannot in good reasoning make any relationship between that module seen in 2020 and which boat it belonged to.

Seriously, I think it would be much better for us to actively pretend that module seen in 2020 didn't exist.



Idea of taking 18 months to assemble an SSN under the assembly hall once it is up and running is also a massive assumption, and as I wrote previously, it is unlikely they would use all 20 slots for SSNs either.

Don't raise expectations so high by tweaking assumptions in the most extreme side of the spectrum.

 

[Maikeru]

As I wrote to AndrewS, we cannot in good reasoning make any relationship between that module seen in 2020 and which boat it belonged to.

Seriously, I think it would be much better for us to actively pretend that module seen in 2020 didn't exist.



Idea of taking 18 months to assemble an SSN under the assembly hall once it is up and running is also a massive assumption, and as I wrote previously, it is unlikely they would use all 20 slots for SSNs either.

Don't raise expectations so high by tweaking assumptions in the most extreme side of the spectrum.

I am basing my assumptions on Virginia class construction speeds, it's not just guessing. The dates of laying down, launching and commissioning are all listed in the Wiki page I linked.

 

[Kalec]

I was wondering how he could tell that Huludao launched a new SSN, I think he is posting based on low-res Sentinel photo taken today.

Drydock filled with water meanwhile a blackish thing on the same blue platform.

So it takes Huludao shipyard 8 months to launch a new SSN after the previous one, and one question remains. How to tell whether it is a 093B or 094, some one checked it on the ground by drone?