09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[charles18]

China's submarine decade just begun. wait and watch. by 2030 PLAN sub fleet will be much larger than what we are thinking.

.....

You're probably right.
If the previous decade of the 2010's was the decade of surface combatants and amphibious ships then this time in the 2020's it will be the decade of submarines and aircraft carriers. Quality wise I don't expect anything game changing to come out of surface combatants and amphibious ships because China has already achieved technological maturity within this department. Submarines however are a different story. The PLA-navy needs a serious "tech upgrade" and something tells me they will not fail to deliver.

 

[BoraTas]

About the podcast of today by @Blitzo and Patch
It reinforces my beliefs about some stuff but it also refutes some


Reinforced beliefs:
- Sub vs sub combat will be pretty much non-existent considering how short ranged passive sonars are against modern subs.
- Ships and aircraft became really good at ASW. Subs are basically useless at ASW. Complete reversal of the cold war scheme.
- Torpedos are inherently short ranged weapons. A thick and non-oxidizing medium like water ensures that.
- Littorals, thus ECS and SCS are not really good for subs. Sonar performance degrades, and navigation becomes much harder.
- China is significantly ahead of what most people believe.
- Putting subs in the Taiwan strait is a very bad idea for China's adversaries.
- Quietness is already beyond the point of diminishing results.
- SSKs are bad for intense anti-surface ops.

New things I learned:
- I thought Soryu's were very hard opponents. It turns out they were not. Because you can preposition aircraft or ships to their base entry and exit routes, and use active sonar. Then they can't avoid you.
- SSKs are really really bad at offensive anti-surface because of their really low high-speed underwater endurance. They are area denial at best. You preposition them. Then if someone gets close enough they can torpedo them.
- Unless you can disrupt enemy ASW aircraft sorties, SSKs are not survivable. This leads to the first condition.
- Seawolfs are noisier than late-Virginias.

Implications of these:
- Anti-ship missiles are very beneficial for subs.
- SSKs need SAM capability. Congrats to the Germans.
- AIP is incredibly important for SSKs.
- HALE/MALE type ASW drones will be very useful because of their endurances.
- China will probably de-prioritize non-nuclear subs. They will continue to exist, but I believe they will make around 1/3-to-1/2 of the fleet in ~2050.

BONUS:
@Blitzo is a really nice person

 

[AndrewS]

About the podcast of today by @Blitzo and Patch
It reinforces my beliefs about some stuff but it also refutes some


Reinforced beliefs:
- Sub vs sub combat will be pretty much non-existent considering how short ranged passive sonars are against modern subs.
- Ships and aircraft became really good at ASW. Subs are basically useless at ASW. Complete reversal of the cold war scheme.
- Torpedos are inherently short ranged weapons. A thick and non-oxidizing medium like water ensures that.
- Littorals, thus ECS and SCS are not really good for subs. Sonar performance degrades, and navigation becomes much harder.
- China is significantly ahead of what most people believe.
- Putting subs in the Taiwan strait is a very bad idea for China's adversaries.
- Quietness is already beyond the point of diminishing results.
- SSKs are bad for intense anti-surface ops.

New things I learned:
- I thought Soryu's were very hard opponents. It turns out they were not. Because you can preposition aircraft or ships to their base entry and exit routes, and use active sonar. Then they can't avoid you.
- SSKs are really really bad at offensive anti-surface because of their really low high-speed underwater endurance. They are area denial at best. You preposition them. Then if someone gets close enough they can torpedo them.
- Unless you can disrupt enemy ASW aircraft sorties, SSKs are not survivable. This leads to the first condition.
- Seawolfs are noisier than late-Virginias.

Implications of these:
- Anti-ship missiles are very beneficial for subs.
- SSKs need SAM capability. Congrats to the Germans.
- AIP is incredibly important for SSKs.
- HALE/MALE type ASW drones will be very useful because of their endurances.
- China will probably de-prioritize non-nuclear subs. They will continue to exist, but I believe they will make around 1/3-to-1/2 of the fleet in ~2050.

BONUS:
@Blitzo is a really nice person

Could you expand on what is meant by China being significantly ahead of what most people believe?

 

[BoraTas]

Could you expand on what is meant by China being significantly ahead of what most people believe?

Early 09-III equals Sturgeon
The latest ones equal Los Angeles

Early Virginia level of quietness is expected by ~2030.

US SSN counter detections are somewhat regular. Soryu detections and trackings by prepositioning are really common. Thinking about it, this is probably why Japan went full on Lithium-ion and discarded AIP.

 

[gelgoog]

- Sub vs sub combat will be pretty much non-existent considering how short ranged passive sonars are against modern subs.

Nuclear attack submarines are still faster than surface ships. What I think will happen more is persistent undersea sonar networks. And then the attack submarines can act as interceptors, you launch them to intercept a target and use active sonar to engage.

- Ships and aircraft became really good at ASW. Subs are basically useless at ASW. Complete reversal of the cold war scheme.

The ships use active sonar, just like submarines, and are slower than nuclear attack submarines. So I really do not see how this is true. It is true that aircraft are a problem. But they use two means to detect submarines, sonobuys, or magnetic anomaly detectors. And they strike submarines with either mines or torpedos. I think you will see submarines use composite materials on the hull or non-magnetic materials which render the magnetic anomaly detectors useless.

- Torpedos are inherently short ranged weapons. A thick and non-oxidizing medium like water ensures that.

"Short" ranged is like 50-60km...

- Littorals, thus ECS and SCS are not really good for subs. Sonar performance degrades, and navigation becomes much harder.

It might be possible to process the signal if your sonar is stationary you can likely just filter out the background.

- SSKs are bad for intense anti-surface ops.

Modern SSKs have cruise missiles. So I would not dismiss them so easily.

- I thought Soryu's were very hard opponents. It turns out they were not. Because you can preposition aircraft or ships to their base entry and exit routes, and use active sonar. Then they can't avoid you.

Soryu is not particularly quiet. The Swedish Stirling engines they use are mechanical engines and quite noisy. Fuel cells like on German submarines should be a lot quieter.

- Unless you can disrupt enemy ASW aircraft sorties, SSKs are not survivable.

Like I said you can use a composite hull or some other non-magnetic hull and try to reduce the visibility of the SSK.

- SSKs need SAM capability. Congrats to the Germans.

And just where will you put the sensor on the submarine? Radar would make the submarine visible, and IR sensors would likely work poorly from under water.

- AIP is incredibly important for SSKs.

Not really. At least not current AIP. Which in all cases is really low power.

- China will probably de-prioritize non-nuclear subs. They will continue to exist, but I believe they will make around 1/3-to-1/2 of the fleet in ~2050.

Maybe. Until China pushes out beyond the first island chain the nuclear submarines won't be all that useful to be honest.

 

[sinophilia]

About the podcast of today by @Blitzo and Patch
It reinforces my beliefs about some stuff but it also refutes some


Reinforced beliefs:
- Sub vs sub combat will be pretty much non-existent considering how short ranged passive sonars are against modern subs.
- Ships and aircraft became really good at ASW. Subs are basically useless at ASW. Complete reversal of the cold war scheme.
- Torpedos are inherently short ranged weapons. A thick and non-oxidizing medium like water ensures that.
- Littorals, thus ECS and SCS are not really good for subs. Sonar performance degrades, and navigation becomes much harder.
- China is significantly ahead of what most people believe.
- Putting subs in the Taiwan strait is a very bad idea for China's adversaries.
- Quietness is already beyond the point of diminishing results.
- SSKs are bad for intense anti-surface ops.

New things I learned:
- I thought Soryu's were very hard opponents. It turns out they were not. Because you can preposition aircraft or ships to their base entry and exit routes, and use active sonar. Then they can't avoid you.
- SSKs are really really bad at offensive anti-surface because of their really low high-speed underwater endurance. They are area denial at best. You preposition them. Then if someone gets close enough they can torpedo them.
- Unless you can disrupt enemy ASW aircraft sorties, SSKs are not survivable. This leads to the first condition.
- Seawolfs are noisier than late-Virginias.

Implications of these:
- Anti-ship missiles are very beneficial for subs.
- SSKs need SAM capability. Congrats to the Germans.
- AIP is incredibly important for SSKs.
- HALE/MALE type ASW drones will be very useful because of their endurances.
- China will probably de-prioritize non-nuclear subs. They will continue to exist, but I believe they will make around 1/3-to-1/2 of the fleet in ~2050.

BONUS:
@Blitzo is a really nice person

How about the craziest one of all: during the podcast Patchwork states that the J-20 is *significantly* superior to all US aircraft. Of course that includes not only the F-22 but the F-35.

Pretty shocking statement, he makes it very authoritatively and in a laughing and dismissive manner at anyone who thinks otherwise.

I wonder if anyone has any comment on this? I watched all 3 hours 14 min and that was easily the biggest thing that stood out to me.

Bonus: According to Patchwork China could not only take Taiwan but easily take Okinawa even if US, Japan, Taiwan, and possibly Korea get involved.

 

[sequ]

How about the craziest one of all: during the podcast Patchwork states that the J-20 is *significantly* superior to all US aircraft. Of course that includes not only the F-22 but the F-35.

Do you have time stamp?

 

[sinophilia]

Do you have time stamp?

God help me about to enter this 3 hour 15 min podcast and look for it

 

[sequ]

God help me about to enter this 3 hour 15 min podcast and look for it

I'm listening to it and I am 30 min into it... Do you have an estimation on when they talk about air force stuff?

 

[sinophilia]

I'm listening to it and I am 30 min into it... Do you have an estimation on when they talk about air force stuff?

No but I’m looking for the J-20 comment, which of all 3 other people on the podcast (including Blitzo) no one really opposed it.