I would add perhaps accelerate the retirement/training-transfer of older subs, higher ratio of nukes to diesels?, and most importantly, expansion of the operational/support structures for a much larger order of battle whose technical proficiency probably takes much longer than the sub construction time. Like J-15 pilots, PLAN must severely lacks people with very high-level of engineering skills.
09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread
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I would add perhaps accelerate the retirement/training-transfer of older subs, higher ratio of nukes to diesels?, and most importantly, expansion of the operational/support structures for a much larger order of battle whose technical proficiency probably takes much longer than the sub construction time. Like J-15 pilots, PLAN must severely lacks people with very high-level of engineering skills.
Very good point. More 093Bs now means more trained and experienced crews for 095/6 when they come on stream. PLAN needs to bin 035s ASAP, and the remaining Kilos and Song/039 boats in the fairly near future.
I've been thinking about the lack of activity at Bohai since its completion and I'd like to present a few interpretations for what we're seeing:
1. Potemkin shipyard: The new halls are nothing more than empty sheds China built to fool satellites. Not only is this grossly out of character, if successful it would be counterproductive. At worst, it would galvanize adversaries to expand their own submarine building without granting China any security. This possibility can be dismissed out of hand.
2. The submarines suck: China underestimated how difficult it would be to design a competitive SSN and is now all dressed up with nowhere to go. While possible, I don't think China would have undertaken a construction project this expansive without having crossed the t's and dotted the i's. While not great, I don't think that the latest variants of the 09-III are that bad that China couldn't build a few to tide itself over until the 09-V arrives. The submarines being completely inadequate doesn't gel with the progress China has made in SSKs and in ship design/building as a whole.
3. There isn't a delay: What we're seeing isn't a delay and there's still more work needed to prep the yard. It's difficult to tell that this is the case since we don't have other yards elsewhere of both this scale and recency, so analogies are difficult if not impossible to draw. We would be extraordinarily lucky to catch a satellite photo of plant and machinery moving into the halls, but perhaps we can observe some ambient activity.
4. China's waiting for a better design: The optimistic side of the coin to 2. China judges that it would be better to wait a short while for a much better design than to turn the crank on a less capable design.
1. Potemkin shipyard: The new halls are nothing more than empty sheds China built to fool satellites. Not only is this grossly out of character, if successful it would be counterproductive. At worst, it would galvanize adversaries to expand their own submarine building without granting China any security. This possibility can be dismissed out of hand.
2. The submarines suck: China underestimated how difficult it would be to design a competitive SSN and is now all dressed up with nowhere to go. While possible, I don't think China would have undertaken a construction project this expansive without having crossed the t's and dotted the i's. While not great, I don't think that the latest variants of the 09-III are that bad that China couldn't build a few to tide itself over until the 09-V arrives. The submarines being completely inadequate doesn't gel with the progress China has made in SSKs and in ship design/building as a whole.
3. There isn't a delay: What we're seeing isn't a delay and there's still more work needed to prep the yard. It's difficult to tell that this is the case since we don't have other yards elsewhere of both this scale and recency, so analogies are difficult if not impossible to draw. We would be extraordinarily lucky to catch a satellite photo of plant and machinery moving into the halls, but perhaps we can observe some ambient activity.
4. China's waiting for a better design: The optimistic side of the coin to 2. China judges that it would be better to wait a short while for a much better design than to turn the crank on a less capable design.
My thinking is that it'd most likely be a combination of 3 and 4, as new yards need time to get up and running so making use of that time to refine designs and technologies including testing on existing proven platforms allows the yards to hit the ground running for mass production of the new designs.
I think it is a combination of 3., but also one more option you didn't mention, what I dub to be 5.
5. It will take a while for the full production capacity of the new facilities to be ramped up, independent of having the new equipment and factory tooling made ready.
This is a new greenfield site that only saw its first boat launched earlier this year has, and any new factory producing a new class of submarines (which the 09IIIB are) will not immediately see its production start off at its peak. One new boat may be launched the first year of operation, followed by two the next year, then perhaps four the year after, and so on, until a sustainable peak is reached.
For my part, everything we have seen with the launch of the new submarine so far and the pace of launch and work we are seeing, I believe should be well within projections.
4. Is likely true to an extent as well, but it is moreso than 3 and 5 were designed specifically to synchronize with 4, rather than there being any meaningful delay as such.
Given the vast amount of building space in the new halls and more efficient setup, I'd be surprised if any new submarines were started in the old hall.
But nuclear submarines do take some years to complete.
From what's being hinted at 09IIIB is going to have a next-gen electric motor designed by Ma Weiming's team. It's safe to assume we'll get new propeller blades as well given Chinese advances in materials in the last 10 years. China should be able to make quieter coolant pumps and quieter turbine generators too. They might even use pumps and turbogenerators developed for 09V's power plant on 09IIIB first, as those subsystems are quicker to certify.
Compared to late Akula models, 09IIIB has (in term of noise, my 100% unprofessional assessment)
+ (known) inherently quieter turboelectric architecture
+ (highly likely) new state-of-the-art electric motor
+ (highly likely) superior propeller due to superior materials, computing power and manufacturing
+ (highly likely) quieter coolant pumps and turbine generators due to advances in electric machines design and superior manufacturing
+ (highly likely) superior active/passive noise isolation techniques (if all those reports about 何琳 He Lin's works are not complete BS)
+ (known) smaller hull size so smaller propeller
- (known) smaller hull size so potentially less space for implementing acoustic treatments
I'd be surprised if 09IIIB is not significantly quieter than late Akula models.
If the rumor about 095V having Ma Weiming team's shaftless pump-jet (a pump-jet with impellers driven by a bearingless motor in which the rotor is floated by magnetic levitation and mechanically decoupled from the stator) is true, then 095 will probably come later rather than sooner. It would be a tremendous achievement to build a bearingless motor powerful enough to drive a SSN. My 100% speculation is that Ma Weiming's team has managed to build a powerful enough bearingless centrifugal pump to act as a reactor coolant pump and the new pump was significantly quieter so PLAN decided to build a large batch of 09IIIB and wait a bit longer for 09V. Probably way too optimistic but one can always dream.
Compared to late Akula models, 09IIIB has (in term of noise, my 100% unprofessional assessment)
+ (known) inherently quieter turboelectric architecture
+ (highly likely) new state-of-the-art electric motor
+ (highly likely) superior propeller due to superior materials, computing power and manufacturing
+ (highly likely) quieter coolant pumps and turbine generators due to advances in electric machines design and superior manufacturing
+ (highly likely) superior active/passive noise isolation techniques (if all those reports about 何琳 He Lin's works are not complete BS)
+ (known) smaller hull size so smaller propeller
- (known) smaller hull size so potentially less space for implementing acoustic treatments
I'd be surprised if 09IIIB is not significantly quieter than late Akula models.
If the rumor about 095V having Ma Weiming team's shaftless pump-jet (a pump-jet with impellers driven by a bearingless motor in which the rotor is floated by magnetic levitation and mechanically decoupled from the stator) is true, then 095 will probably come later rather than sooner. It would be a tremendous achievement to build a bearingless motor powerful enough to drive a SSN. My 100% speculation is that Ma Weiming's team has managed to build a powerful enough bearingless centrifugal pump to act as a reactor coolant pump and the new pump was significantly quieter so PLAN decided to build a large batch of 09IIIB and wait a bit longer for 09V. Probably way too optimistic but one can always dream.
bro thanks for the opportunity, I want to share with you what @Oldschool had PM me its a new sub!
Oldschool
Junior Member
Registered MemberYesterday at 4:26 AM
It's clearly a new class of sub. Not the old 093and 094.
Featuring shaftless pumpjet, VLS and new sail.
No way just an upgraded 093.
I think that's overoptimistic both for the new reactor and the pump-jet. Shilao and Yankeesama seem sure that what's being built are 09IIIBs and 09V is at least good 5 years away.
From what I've read what's being built at Huludao features a next-gen electric motor (to drive propellers) instead of pump-jet. Bearingless motors are previously only used in low power scenarios, building one powerful enough to propel a SSN to high speed would be an extraordinary advance. Rumor also has it that the new reactor design is only recently locked. It would take years to get it reviewed and tested. Both point to 09V being years away in the future.
When did we get those hints?
The electric motor was attributed to use for 09V as the true next generation nuclear submarine
There was never an indication that a shaftless pumpjet was being developed for nuclear submarine purposes.
That was an incorrect interpretation of a shaftless propeller being developed shown in the same television program when Ma stated the new electric motor/drive would be applied for the next gen nuclear submarine.
But the shaftless propeller itself was never stated as being intended for a nuclear submarine.