09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

antiterror13

Brigadier
I'm personally expecting near the end of this decade. Which is why I wrote on the ASW thread that I think the nuclear sub imbalance will get better by 2030.

Not sure whether China (still) depends on foreign technologies for SSN and SSBN construction, i.e extreme advanced CNC, software, chips, etc

I do hope not
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
As I understand it (on the basis of stuff I've read here and elsewhere on the internet), in terms of quietness:

093 = Victor III
093A = 688I
093B = early Virginias

Is that reasonable?
No, there is not much difference between 093 and 093A, they're both first iteration los angeles/Victor III level.

093G is a substantial upgrade that can't really be considered the same class anymore. These are analogues to Akula and 688i class.

The only subs in the PLAN comparable to Virginia class in noise are the SSKs, where China put most of its resources.
 

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
Some years ago (a decade maybe?) Texts were circulating around about some variant of 093 was using natural circulation to cool the reactor.

No LA class sub uses that.

Given that there are also 30 more years of computational and material advances, and given that 093 is not really smaller than the LA, if the natural circulation thing is indeed true, there is little reason to believe latest 093 aren't just as quiet than improved LA, if not a bit quieter.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
I've been thinking about the lack of activity at Bohai since its completion and I'd like to present a few interpretations for what we're seeing:

1. Potemkin shipyard: The new halls are nothing more than empty sheds China built to fool satellites. Not only is this grossly out of character, if successful it would be counterproductive. At worst, it would galvanize adversaries to expand their own submarine building without granting China any security. This possibility can be dismissed out of hand.

2. The submarines suck: China underestimated how difficult it would be to design a competitive SSN and is now all dressed up with nowhere to go. While possible, I don't think China would have undertaken a construction project this expansive without having crossed the t's and dotted the i's. While not great, I don't think that the latest variants of the 09-III are that bad that China couldn't build a few to tide itself over until the 09-V arrives. The submarines being completely inadequate doesn't gel with the progress China has made in SSKs and in ship design/building as a whole.

3. There isn't a delay: What we're seeing isn't a delay and there's still more work needed to prep the yard. It's difficult to tell that this is the case since we don't have other yards elsewhere of both this scale and recency, so analogies are difficult if not impossible to draw. We would be extraordinarily lucky to catch a satellite photo of plant and machinery moving into the halls, but perhaps we can observe some ambient activity.

4. China's waiting for a better design: The optimistic side of the coin to 2. China judges that it would be better to wait a short while for a much better design than to turn the crank on a less capable design.
China mainly has 2 major threats. 1. SK initiating armed unification with NK. 2. America invading Taiwan or potentially some area in the SCS.

In both cases but especially 1, the geography heavily favors SSKs.

Where SSN would be useful: India-Pakistan crisis, interdicting US shipping in late phases of Pacific war. These are important concerns as well, but not as immediate as investing on VLO platforms, ASW and VLS carrying ships, which are most directly useful in the straits and the yellow sea.

So Chinese attitude towards SSN development seems to be one of developing technology demonstration but not investing much into it otherwise. The new facilities is a step towards changing that, but the actual contract for the subs don't come until later compared with the yard construction, as China is taking it at a leisurely pace.

Nevertheless, there is 1 new type submarine being constructed now, and it seems to have great potential.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Some years ago (a decade maybe?) Texts were circulating around about some variant of 093 was using natural circulation to cool the reactor.

No LA class sub uses that.

Given that there are also 30 more years of computational and material advances, and given that 093 is not really smaller than the LA, if the natural circulation thing is indeed true, there is little reason to believe latest 093 aren't just as quiet than improved LA, if not a bit quieter.
LA class is single hull. 093 is double hull. Big difference in size.

natural circulation don't really matter all that much. Most reactors are naturally circulating at low to medium speed.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
China mainly has 2 major threats. 1. SK initiating armed unification with NK. 2. America invading Taiwan or potentially some area in the SCS.
China has only one threat: the US presence in the western Pacific. Every problem it has stems solely from that.
Where SSN would be useful: India-Pakistan crisis, interdicting US shipping in late phases of Pacific war. These are important concerns as well, but not as immediate as investing on VLO platforms, ASW and VLS carrying ships, which are most directly useful in the straits and the yellow sea.
To put this as kindly as I can, I strongly urge you to broaden your horizons when considering the kind of power projection China requires to win a Pacific war. If China is fighting in the Taiwan Strait and the Yellow Sea, something has gone terribly wrong. It should be fighting at a sustained high intensity near Guam and regularly punching Hawaii. If your ceiling is so low that you think China's concern should be the Strait and Yellow Sea, it's no wonder you don't see the urgency in having a vast and capable nuclear submarine force. Even a pissant like Australia sees the utility of having an SSN force (and is delusional enough to think it can get one) and you think the Strait and Yellow Sea is China's limit. We aren't in 2003.

Don't wait for the problem to come to your doorstop, go deal with the problem in its own home.

Chinese SSNs are going to be crucial in locking down the Second Island Chain the way the First is locked down. SSKs simply do not and will never have the speed, range, and endurance to conduct operations that far from home ports. Without a large fleet of first-rate SSNs, China won't be able to sail its navy beyond the cover of its ASW umbrella in the FIC because US subs will always be able to pick off PLAN surface ships. It would be like walking through a minefield. Conversely, the USN would be able to sail throughout the SIC without a care if PLAN SSNs are a non-factor as they are today. Capable SSNs would allow China to 1) Clear out the minefield the US put in the SIC in the form of its SSNs, and 2) Set up a minefield of its own.

So important is the Type 09-V strategically that I would place it above the H-20 in importance and priority, second only to China's strategic nuclear arsenal.
So Chinese attitude towards SSN development seems to be one of developing technology demonstration but not investing much into it otherwise.
Yeah, this is, like, the opposite of reality. Did you not notice that China just built the largest nuclear submarine yard on the face of the Earth? Do you think it did it to look at it? To think China didn't build a lot of world-class SSNs because it doesn't need them is a silly cope. It didn't build them (and still doesn't) because it couldn't.
 

BoraTas

Major
Registered Member
Lol, absolutely not. 093 is basically at around the same noise level as the last 2 091s. Maybe a little quieter. The main improvement is in reactor safety and higher speed. It was so loud that they stopped at 2 and waited several years before coming out with 093a. Which is most likely still noisier than Victor 3.

The problem is that 093 reactor hull is too small. 093b imo would be likely around Victor 3 in noise level since they are around the same size.

Currently, the quiet nuclear subs that china have are the most recently commissioned 094a.

Based on shilao podcast, 093b should be considered guodu class. 095 will be a lot larger and likely to skip a generation (think h6k to h20). Even with that, it's unlikely to fully catch up with the latest usn sub. So imo, 095 is likely to be china's first quiet nuclear subs and probably around the early Virginia class in stealth.
You look way too much at hull sizes of submarines to guess their noise levels. There is correlation but that correlation is actually quite weak. Virginia is smaller than the Seawolf yet has the noise level. The LA's surface displacement is just 75% of the surface displacement of Project 971's but it was significantly quieter at the beginning and equaled them in late cold war. The Project 941 (The Typhoon for NATO) was louder than the LA by a significant margin despite a surface displacement of 24,000 tons. The Astute and Virginia are quieter than the Yasen despite having smaller surface displacements. The Collins class is known as an underwater rock band despite its size. The German Type 212A, despite being very small is quieter than Kilos. The correlation is so weak that I think we should only include that as a sidenote. If China can not equal the noise level of Sturgeon in 2022 then we should stop PLA watching altogether.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
China has only one threat: the US presence in the western Pacific. Every problem it has stems solely from that.

To put this as kindly as I can, I strongly urge you to broaden your horizons when considering the kind of power projection China requires to win a Pacific war. If China is fighting in the Taiwan Strait and the Yellow Sea, something has gone terribly wrong. It should be fighting at a sustained high intensity near Guam and regularly punching Hawaii. If your ceiling is so low that you think China's concern should be the Strait and Yellow Sea, it's no wonder you don't see the urgency in having a vast and capable nuclear submarine force. Even a pissant like Australia sees the utility of having an SSN force (and is delusional enough to think it can get one) and you think the Strait and Yellow Sea is China's limit. We aren't in 2003.

Don't wait for the problem to come to your doorstop, go deal with the problem in its own home.

Chinese SSNs are going to be crucial in locking down the Second Island Chain the way the First is locked down. SSKs simply do not and will never have the speed, range, and endurance to conduct operations that far from home ports. Without a large fleet of first-rate SSNs, China won't be able to sail its navy beyond the cover of its ASW umbrella in the FIC because US subs will always be able to pick off PLAN surface ships. It would be like walking through a minefield. Conversely, the USN would be able to sail throughout the SIC without a care if PLAN SSNs are a non-factor as they are today. Capable SSNs would allow China to 1) Clear out the minefield the US put in the SIC in the form of its SSNs, and 2) Set up a minefield of its own.

So important is the Type 09-V strategically that I would place it above the H-20 in importance and priority, second only to China's strategic nuclear arsenal.

Yeah, this is, like, the opposite of reality. Did you not notice that China just built the largest nuclear submarine yard on the face of the Earth? Do you think it did it to look at it? To think China didn't build a lot of world-class SSNs because it doesn't need them is a silly cope. It didn't build them (and still doesn't) because it couldn't.
Australia is corrupt and dumb af, their procurement is driven by interests groups and needs to send kickbacks to USA. Why tf would China take a single inspiration from their procurement priorities? It'd be like USA looking at Belarus for an example of what to procure, because thats pretty much what Australia is, an American Belarus.

Youre the delusional one if you think China has no need to operate in the straits around Taiwan island and the yellow sea. SSKs completely dominate in that environment, so up until now they have been the priority.

If US invades, yes China will probe into Guam and towards the Phillipines, but likewise USA will probe into east Taiwan waters and the SCS. And if SK attacks NK, you bet SK will mobilize subs into the yellow sea. China is not the only one capable of attacking. When US SSNs are forced to go close into the first island chain, they face more stealthy SSKs that are already waiting for them, along with air and drone ASW cover, thus annulling American ability to attack key Chinese shipping. And US does need to attack fast, because speed is key in a Taiwan/SCS invasion scenario. Allowing China to keep bombing limited US Asia basing as well as wiping out the ROC rebels and then consolidating the island means failure for Washington.

Therefore the most important priority of the PLA is to gain first the ability to project watertight defense over Chinese territory and waters (all that encompasses the first island chain), which is more boosted by VLO platforms, newer missiles etc.

As for the last part, apparently you didn't read what I wrote:

"The new facilities is a step towards changing that, but the actual contract for the subs don't come until later compared with the yard construction"

Because China has secured relative safety at home territories, I predict that we will see a major SSN investment starting with this new boat on the new facilities. And because China kept its tech alive by making incremental SSN designs, we will most likely have a very good payoff once mass production starts.
 
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