09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Blitzo]

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Check starting from around 11 minute market.

On the topic of 093B. Shilao podcast did mention that they completed certain stage of design work for improved 2nd generation nuclear submarine around 2019. I don't think I'm revealing something too secretive here, since USN is expecting something similar. From that perspective, if they laid down 093B in 2019, seeing the submarine at current completion status is well expected. If you believe that Type 095 is skipping a generation and aiming to be somewhere close to 4th nuclear submarine (so Virginia or Yasen class rather than 688I or Improved Akula), then I would expect it to look quite different from 093 series. At this point, Type 093B is likely to have very advanced combat system and sonar system and probably much improved quieting technology vs the original Type 093, but it's fundamentally still adopting the same hull dimensions as early Type 093s, so I'd expect this particular one to be most likely 093B with some chance of being an earlier 093 going for maintenance.

Are Virginia/Yasen considered to be "fourth generation"? By which standards? I mean -- for 09III family, of course they are second generation by Chinese norms because first generation where the 091.

Also, I wouldn't put too much stock into "external appearance" as a major determinant of submarine capability. Yes there are some features that are often attributed with "more capable submarines" such as hull mounted diving planes, blended sails, or pump jets, among others. But they are not anywhere as decisive in telling us what the capability of a submarine is in the way that say, stealth shaping does for fighter aircraft.

For example, one could describe the Virginia/Seawolf class as externally looking like a 688i but with a blended sail and a pump jet.
Or that Yasen looks like an Akula without the sonar bulb.
Or that Astute looks like Trafalgar but with a redesigned sail.
... Or indeed that the 09III family look externally like 091.

Those are all very general external superficial changes, but doesn't account for the myriad of internal differences which we can't see.


In the case of 09V, it is very possible that it may superficially look similar to a 09III family submarine, just more refined. Personally, I do expect it to have some more modern external shaping, perhaps hull mounted diving planes, maybe a pump jet. I could see it being a bit longer as well if they decide to have a proper VLS farm.
But the big differences will be more internal than external -- namely the configuration of its pressure hull, its reactor, and its internal quietening measures, combat systems, sensors etc. Those aren't things we can easily see.


In the case of 09IIIB, while I agree that it of course will be constrained by the same pressure hull dimensions as the 09III family have been due to being a double hull submarine, there are still substantial measures and ways for its performance and capability to be iterated on and improved in the above internal measures that I described.

 

[Interstellar]

Fair lol

A different question -- do you think it's the launch of a newly built submarine?

Is there any evidence that suggests otherwise?

 

[Maikeru]

Is there any evidence that suggests otherwise?

There is no real evidence either way that I have seen. I am going on the hull sections we've seen going into the halls before and assuming it's about now we'd be expecting a full boat to come out. But I could be wrong. Unusual, but it sometimes happens

 

[tphuang]

Are Virginia/Yasen considered to be "fourth generation"? By which standards? I mean -- for 09III family, of course they are second generation by Chinese norms because first generation where the 091.

Also, I wouldn't put too much stock into "external appearance" as a major determinant of submarine capability. Yes there are some features that are often attributed with "more capable submarines" such as hull mounted diving planes, blended sails, or pump jets, among others. But they are not anywhere as decisive in telling us what the capability of a submarine is in the way that say, stealth shaping does for fighter aircraft.

For example, one could describe the Virginia/Seawolf class as externally looking like a 688i but with a blended sail and a pump jet.
Or that Yasen looks like an Akula without the sonar bulb.
Or that Astute looks like Trafalgar but with a redesigned sail.
... Or indeed that the 09III family look externally like 091.

Those are all very general external superficial changes, but doesn't account for the myriad of internal differences which we can't see.


In the case of 09V, it is very possible that it may superficially look similar to a 09III family submarine, just more refined. Personally, I do expect it to have some more modern external shaping, perhaps hull mounted diving planes, maybe a pump jet. I could see it being a bit longer as well if they decide to have a proper VLS farm.
But the big differences will be more internal than external -- namely the configuration of its pressure hull, its reactor, and its internal quietening measures, combat systems, sensors etc. Those aren't things we can easily see.


In the case of 09IIIB, while I agree that it of course will be constrained by the same pressure hull dimensions as the 09III family have been due to being a double hull submarine, there are still substantial measures and ways for its performance and capability to be iterated on and improved in the above internal measures that I described.

Shilao's podcast called Virginia class 4th generation. I'm fine with that designation as a general description. Sturgeon would be 2nd and LA would be 3rd in that case. If we don't want to use that here, that's fine too. I'm assuming if Shilao's podcast is talking about it that way, that's how people inside Chinese military are looking at it.

I would expect Type 095 to be wider and probably longer than Type 093 series. Maybe not as long and wide as Yasen class, but between Type 093 and Yasen class. And I would expect it to have a more powerful reactor (in 200 kw range) and be able to go faster despite being larger than Type 093. And I would expect external shaping, sail position, diving planes mounting to be at somewhat different than the earlier Type 093s.

 

[SEAD]

Are there any estimation for total production capacity of the new Huludao infrastructure? e.g. is 4x095 per year possible around 2025?

 

[Maikeru]

Are there any estimation for total production capacity of the new Huludao infrastructure? e.g. is 4x095 per year possible around 2025?

Depends how long each sub takes to put together but the big hall has 3 bays each capable of holding up to 4 SSN or 1 SSBN at a time and the smaller hall has 2 bays but the rails are set only for SSN. So a hard maximum of 20 SSN at a time or 3 SSBN and 8 SSN.

 

[SEAD]

Depends how long each sub takes to put together but the big hall has 3 bays each capable of holding up to 4 SSN or 1 SSBN at a time and the smaller hall has 2 bays but the rails are set only for SSN. So a hard maximum of 20 SSN at a time or 3 SSBN and 8 SSN.

Thx and how long a boat takes in bay, 18 month? Is it possible that 095 is larger so each bay can hold less SSNs?

 

[Maikeru]

Thx and how long a boat takes in bay, 18 month?

We don't know, nor do we know how long it will take to fabricate the modules in the northern hall before they go into the assembly halls, but from start to finish a Virginia takes ~4.5 to 6 years so probably something similar for Types 095/6.

 

[Blitzo]

Shilao's podcast called Virginia class 4th generation. I'm fine with that designation as a general description. Sturgeon would be 2nd and LA would be 3rd in that case. If we don't want to use that here, that's fine too. I'm assuming if Shilao's podcast is talking about it that way, that's how people inside Chinese military are looking at it.

Right, okay so it's just the way they described it in the podcast. That's fine, I just wanted to clarify where the "generations" came from.

I would expect Type 095 to be wider and probably longer than Type 093 series. Maybe not as long and wide as Yasen class, but between Type 093 and Yasen class. And I would expect it to have a more powerful reactor (in 200 kw range) and be able to go faster despite being larger than Type 093. And I would expect external shaping, sail position, diving planes mounting to be at somewhat different than the earlier Type 093s.

I think 09V could be longer than the 09IIIB family, but why do you think it would be wider?

Is there any evidence that suggests otherwise?

Some people have floated the idea (no pun intended) that the submarine in the image is an existing in service 09III/A submarine that has returned to drydock for maintenance, and that the image taken was part of the process of settling it to drydock.
(On the western side of the drydock at the old facility they have used the drydock and floating barge for that as well I believe)

Personally I think it is slighlty more likely that it is a new build submarine being launched, but I acknowledge that with only this one image at this stage it is possible it's an existing submarine rather than a new one.

If we had imagery over the previous days showing this submarine exiting from the assembly hall however, that would prove it is a new build submarine.

 

[gelgoog]

I would think 18 months is enough to complete a full boat (not including fabrication of the modules) and so I'm going to go with a new boat rather than refit. But it does look like 093 so I'll go with 093B. Disappointing for those of us waiting for 095 but no doubt a significant improvement on its predecessors and a serious threat even to top tier navies. It would also serve to validate the new construction facilities in preparation for "dumpling mode".

I assume they will start with building something they are familiar with in the new facilities and perhaps with some new construction techniques and systems easy to replace. This is a similar learning method to the one with Type 002. This will allow them to debug the production facilities and train the staff. Later they will come up with the new design, probably right after these boats are built.

It seems a bit of excess caution to me however. Perhaps the next generation reactor was not ready yet, or something like that, and they could not start production on the next generation submarine yet.

If China could they should just convince the Russians to license a kind of variant of the Laika submarine class hull to them. That is supposed to be an universal submarine design which will be used for the next gen attack and strategic subs. I think it will be the most suitable for Chinese purposes and build strategy. But since a submarine is built around the reactor, and China will have their own reactor design, they can never use the exact same hull design.