09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter SinoSoldier
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SinoSoldier
Colonel
Do we have sufficient information on the 09V and 09IIIB to tell them apart or to even say that they're different boats? Unless the 09V is of a different weight class or role, such as the Oscar vs Akula, it doesn't make much sense to pour money and time into a modernized variant of a 09III when a 09V could've done the trick.
As for the X-sails, it's surprising that it took the Chinese this long to grasp this concept.
Based on past rumours and timing, this is unlikely to be 09V.
It was always known that 09IIIB would emerge before 09V.
This is not based on any sort of visual external inspection, though I suppose one could make the case that this submarine seen had dimensions and overall configuration that is consistent with an 09III family submarine, while there has been some expectation that 09V would be slightly different, including dimensionally.
But as I said, the differentiation is primarily based on timing and rumours, not visual inspection.
I am not convinced that the tails are X/cruciform. It looks to me it could be a standard t tail, with the appearance of cruciform being from shadows.
In Sutton's opinion it's some sort of 093
Lines up with what @Bltizo is thinking as well.
@Interstellar
Do you think it's 09IIIB?
Do you think it's 09IIIB?
Except Sutton thinks that this is an existing hull that is going into drydock for maintenance rather than the launch of a new hull.
I could see that argument, though you'd expect it to be in the other dock for maintenance, and the timing is suspicious.
I suppose if we had new pictures in the next few weeks to determine the location of this hull, it would help.
Using the launch basin/drydock to measure the sub, I too am getting similar numbers. Around 108 m in length (plus minus a meter or so) and around 12 m in width. (again plus minus a meter or so). So, quite within the 093A dimensions ballpark.
The sail seems to be the same size and at same position as 093A. The dimensions seem to match it too.
Even the tail surfaces seem to protrude just as much as on 093A. Suggesting it's not an X-tail but a regular cruciform tail as seen on previous 093.
Given the same length - I'm actually inclined to think there's no VLS on this sub. While the resolution is too low to be sure, such a feature might be hidden under flush hatches - i'd say it's more plausible a VLS would be added for a new subtype submarine.
Of course, in theory it's possible that the 093b, if this IS that, received a thorough internal redesign - perhaps due to greater automation and a smaller crew required - so that the VLS module could be inserted without making the sub longer. But there's not enough precedents for that. And there are examples of subs being lengthened for VLS insertion.
So... the two most plausible theories right now is that we're either looking at one of the older subs that is for whatever reason being brought into maintenance not to the old facility but to this new facility -
or that the sub is indeed a new build, but it is yet another iteration of the 093A, and not the expected 093B with a VLS.
Also, it seems pretty obvious from the size and shape of the blob behind the tails that the sub does not feature a shroud. So likely no pump jet propulsion. Again pointing to the theory of it being either an old sub or an older design sub.
One has to wonder - why haven't there been images of the sub outside the basin? How long does it take for a sub to leave a construction hall and to be placed onto the floating dock? It may very well be that satellites simply did not catch that moment. But it could also be that the submarine entered the floating dock from the harbor. In which case it'd definitely be just an older sub going into maintenance.
If it's a new sub, I'm sure there'll be more images and news about it in the coming days.
Finally someone posted this model picture on Twitter, though it appeared to have pump jet propulsion and VLS.
Shilao also further clarified in livestream that he actually meant to be "It is impossible to determine propulsion system merely by satellite photos."
@Kalec bro IF this depiction is the same with the satellite photo, then I say the SSN is a 095.