I see it as a step-by-step progress.
09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter SinoSoldier
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I would suggest that everyone listens to the shilao podcast and be very cautious about where plan is at when it comes to nuclear subs. The one we see is definitely not a 095. It has the dimension of a 093 sub. Could be a new 093b or a 093a going in for work. It's really hard to judge from these satellite photos. More importantly, we need to consider where china is at when it comes to nuclear submarines. This is a platform that requires large investment for long period of time. It's an area where you can't get result. Consider that china started construction on type 093 in probably first half of 90s and joined service in 2003. The earliest 093 represented not much improvement from the last couple of 091s. the hull didn't change that much, the quieting technology most likely remained similar and the only major change was probably reactor and speed. I would assume over time, 093a got a lot better due to improved quieting technology, but this is an area that china needs continued investment. The issue fundamentally is that 093's inner hull is too small.
Do not expect 093b to be a miracle. Think about it more like h6k or latest variant of j7. It's a significantly improved 2nd generation nuclear sub. It's overall combat capabilities will probably be between early and late los Angeles class or around early akula class. Probably closer to original than improved la class. Now, china's 3rd generation fighter jet was a 2 gen leap to j10. And China's 3rd generation bomber is also expected to be a 2 generation jump to h20. One should expect that the first 095 to be somewhere between improve la and Virginia class.
If it disappoints you that Chinese nuclear subs are not more advanced, them consider how the Russians devoted all their naval budget to borei class in the early 2000s and completely neglected all it's surface fleet. And also consider that royal navy cut back it's type 045 and carrier investment but did not bat an eye at next generation nuclear submarines despite much higher cost. For china, the type 092 class cost as much per boat as 29 type 053s according to shilao. This is something you pour money into for a long time without obvious results. Consider that the British finished the reactor development for astute class in 2006 and astute class did not become fully operational until 2014. Long lead time, many years of investment and build time. Even if china finishes all the design for a 095 in 2021 with all it's latest technologies, it might not join service until 2027. The cost is absolutely astronomical. When china was desperately looking to improve it's brown water capabilities in the 90s and early 2000s, nuclear submarines was not the most obvious place to dump a lot of money. That's why we had all that diesel sub investment. It's only been in the past 10 or 15 years that plan really had the money and requirements to put huge investment into nuclear subs. But it will take sometime to develop what they need. I'm the future, there might be more value in the boats under construction in huludao than 2 or 3 super carriers. Each type 095 will probably cost more than each 055. Each type 096 might be 3 type 055s. But it will take time to get there's. Type 095 may or may not be as quiet as the latest yasen class. It probably won't be as quiet as the latest Virginia class. But don't have overly high expectations on 093b. See it as a good incremental platform that will allow them to test out technologies that will be on type 095.
Do not expect 093b to be a miracle. Think about it more like h6k or latest variant of j7. It's a significantly improved 2nd generation nuclear sub. It's overall combat capabilities will probably be between early and late los Angeles class or around early akula class. Probably closer to original than improved la class. Now, china's 3rd generation fighter jet was a 2 gen leap to j10. And China's 3rd generation bomber is also expected to be a 2 generation jump to h20. One should expect that the first 095 to be somewhere between improve la and Virginia class.
If it disappoints you that Chinese nuclear subs are not more advanced, them consider how the Russians devoted all their naval budget to borei class in the early 2000s and completely neglected all it's surface fleet. And also consider that royal navy cut back it's type 045 and carrier investment but did not bat an eye at next generation nuclear submarines despite much higher cost. For china, the type 092 class cost as much per boat as 29 type 053s according to shilao. This is something you pour money into for a long time without obvious results. Consider that the British finished the reactor development for astute class in 2006 and astute class did not become fully operational until 2014. Long lead time, many years of investment and build time. Even if china finishes all the design for a 095 in 2021 with all it's latest technologies, it might not join service until 2027. The cost is absolutely astronomical. When china was desperately looking to improve it's brown water capabilities in the 90s and early 2000s, nuclear submarines was not the most obvious place to dump a lot of money. That's why we had all that diesel sub investment. It's only been in the past 10 or 15 years that plan really had the money and requirements to put huge investment into nuclear subs. But it will take sometime to develop what they need. I'm the future, there might be more value in the boats under construction in huludao than 2 or 3 super carriers. Each type 095 will probably cost more than each 055. Each type 096 might be 3 type 055s. But it will take time to get there's. Type 095 may or may not be as quiet as the latest yasen class. It probably won't be as quiet as the latest Virginia class. But don't have overly high expectations on 093b. See it as a good incremental platform that will allow them to test out technologies that will be on type 095.
I'm going to point out where I find this argument to be problematic. We cannot extrapolate China's military development from very loosely analogous developments in other countries. To take one example of this kind of thinking, it should have been impossible for China to build the J-20 because it didn't first build an F-117 counterpart. That was the path the US took, "therefore" that must be the path China takes. That's obviously fallacious because the path late movers take is very different from the one the original innovators took. Later technologies were available to China that allowed it to skip steps.
I consider the inclusion of the British navy's nuclear submarine program something of a non sequitur. Britain just isn't in the same weight class as China; whatever difficulties or resource constraints it faces simply don't apply in China's case. Russia is also in this boat somewhat, given its weak overall industrial base (despite some military technology standouts) and deficient economic system during the Soviet period. The US managed just fine to have both a large, advanced SSN fleet and an equally large and advanced surface fleet. In this regard, the US is the only country in China's weight class.
Something to also consider is that a decade of China's time, resources, money, and expertise back in the day is very different from a decade of such recently. There's nothing magical about submarine quieting, especially given that China has advanced greatly in this field through its SSK program. Furthermore, there's a good chance that China is receiving Russian assistance in technologies it might still be lacking, like the quieting and efficiency of the nuclear reactor itself.
The clincher is the vast expansion of the Bohai Shipyard. This expansion indicates an imminent ramping up of production, which means that China has settled or is putting the finishing touches on a design it considers competitive against the threats it would face, namely US SSNs. The experimental phase of the 1,001 variations of the 09-III is winding down.
I think it is way too premature to speculate over the competitiveness of 09V.
Instead, I think it's more important to first agree whether this submarine is 09V or an 09III variant... And for the record, we've been expecting that a 09III variant (09IIIB) would precede 09V... For a few years now.
Instead, I think it's more important to first agree whether this submarine is 09V or an 09III variant... And for the record, we've been expecting that a 09III variant (09IIIB) would precede 09V... For a few years now.
Fair lol
A different question -- do you think it's the launch of a newly built submarine?
Your estimate of the barge width is way too wide because you've measured part of the drydock basin..
Check starting from around 11 minute market.
On the topic of 093B. Shilao podcast did mention that they completed certain stage of design work for improved 2nd generation nuclear submarine around 2019. I don't think I'm revealing something too secretive here, since USN is expecting something similar. From that perspective, if they laid down 093B in 2019, seeing the submarine at current completion status is well expected. If you believe that Type 095 is skipping a generation and aiming to be somewhere close to 4th nuclear submarine (so Virginia or Yasen class rather than 688I or Improved Akula), then I would expect it to look quite different from 093 series. At this point, Type 093B is likely to have very advanced combat system and sonar system and probably much improved quieting technology vs the original Type 093, but it's fundamentally still adopting the same hull dimensions as early Type 093s, so I'd expect this particular one to be most likely 093B with some chance of being an earlier 093 going for maintenance.
On the topic of 093B. Shilao podcast did mention that they completed certain stage of design work for improved 2nd generation nuclear submarine around 2019. I don't think I'm revealing something too secretive here, since USN is expecting something similar. From that perspective, if they laid down 093B in 2019, seeing the submarine at current completion status is well expected. If you believe that Type 095 is skipping a generation and aiming to be somewhere close to 4th nuclear submarine (so Virginia or Yasen class rather than 688I or Improved Akula), then I would expect it to look quite different from 093 series. At this point, Type 093B is likely to have very advanced combat system and sonar system and probably much improved quieting technology vs the original Type 093, but it's fundamentally still adopting the same hull dimensions as early Type 093s, so I'd expect this particular one to be most likely 093B with some chance of being an earlier 093 going for maintenance.
We saw what hull sections going into the bigger of the 2 new halls in November 2020:
I would think 18 months is enough to complete a full boat (not including fabrication of the modules) and so I'm going to go with a new boat rather than refit. But it does look like 093 so I'll go with 093B. Disappointing for those of us waiting for 095 but no doubt a significant improvement on its predecessors and a serious threat even to top tier navies. It would also serve to validate the new construction facilities in preparation for "dumpling mode".
I would think 18 months is enough to complete a full boat (not including fabrication of the modules) and so I'm going to go with a new boat rather than refit. But it does look like 093 so I'll go with 093B. Disappointing for those of us waiting for 095 but no doubt a significant improvement on its predecessors and a serious threat even to top tier navies. It would also serve to validate the new construction facilities in preparation for "dumpling mode".