09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Cheng]

Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Just been having a look at the range of the JL-2 missiles, if they were to be launched whilst the submarine was sitting in port in Sanya.

With a reported range of 14000km, they can reach almost everywhere in the continental USA.

With a reported range of 12000km, they can reach:

Seattle (Boeing, Microsoft and Amazon)
San Francisco, Los Angeles and the rest of California (Silicon Valley and Hollywood)

 

[Jeff Head]

Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Just been having a look at the range of the JL-2 missiles, if they were to be launched whilst the submarine was sitting in port in Sanya.

With a reported range of 14000km, they can reach almost everywhere in the continental USA.

With a reported range of 12000km, they can reach:

Seattle (Boeing, Microsoft and Amazon)
San Francisco, Los Angeles and the rest of California (Silicon Valley and Hollywood)

Most people believe the 12,000 km range is the most accurate. It is highly doubtful that the missile (given its size and propulsion) has a 14,000 km range.

So, for the benefit of the doubt, if you split the difference, then it is a line from Albuquerque, NM to Milwaukee, WI and all points west of that line that fall in that range from Sanya.

 

[Jeff Head]

Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Again it's PLA who put their big money where their mouth is with these new investments. US like you said has their existing systems which are sunk costs. It's only smart for them to talk the other side down if they don't have the means to meet the challenges.

Sorry, Schumacher, you can't have it both ways.

The PLAN, when they spend on theses systems, they become "sunk" costs too.

The US has spent more billions into all of these systems than the PLAN has, so by your logic, until the PLAN matches that amount, they are the ones not putting their money with their mouth is, and I could say any talk to the contrary is just "cheap," talk on your part too.

But it doesn't work that way for either side. Both the US and the PLAN continue to develop...but we can take note of their relative positions by how they spend.

As I said, the PLAN has reached a situation they are satisfied with on FFGs...one of near parity to western FFGs. So they have settled on, and produced in good numbers that design.

They are coming to that type of situation with their DDGs, and may settle on the Type 052D design for a while. We shall see.

With subs, they clearly are not there yet...perhaps with the 095 (SSN) and 096 (SSBN) they will be. But we do not know yet, we shall see.

It is tremendously more expensive to have numerous classes of vessels of the same type than it is to have a class that meets your needs and that you standardize on. As the PLAN has with the Type 054A.

Less cost in building per vessel, less cost in training, less cost in logistical supply, etc., etc.

When the PLAN reaches a point where they are satisfied with their technological achievement and parity with their subs...they will take advantage of those savings. Until then, we can safely presume that the PLAN is still striving to equal their competitors.

But, as I said, we are now simply repeating again what has already been said. Folks can read both of our positions and decide for themselves.

 

[Schumacher]

Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Sorry, Schumacher, you can't have it both ways.

The PLAN, when they spend on theses systems, they become "sunk" costs too.

The US has spent more billions into all of these systems than the PLAN has, so by your logic, until the PLAN matches that amount, they are the ones not putting their money with their mouth is, and I could say any talk to the contrary is just "cheap," talk on your part too.
......................

Not trying to have both ways . Would have been if we're talking old existing PLAN stuffs. I'm only referring to new stuffs 094, 052D etc here.
I hope you won't split hairs by saying 094s are already built, the point is they're very new & just become operational and chances of PLAN making a boo boo having their huge investments becoming ineffective so soon is slim.

 

[tphuang]

Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Not trying to have both ways . Would have been if we're talking old existing PLAN stuffs. I'm only referring to new stuffs 094, 052D etc here.
I hope you won't split hairs by saying 094s are already built, the point is they're very new & just become operational and chances of PLAN making a boo boo having their huge investments becoming ineffective so soon is slim.

I think we are actually saying that 094 has legitimate second strike threat despite the fact that it's noisier than PLAN would like it to be, so ineffective is not the correct description here.

And you don't go from 092 to Ohio class in one step. You have to make a lot of improvements and investments in the process. 094 is the result of the first set of such improvements.

 

[Schumacher]

Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

I think we are actually saying that 094 has legitimate second strike threat despite the fact that it's noisier than PLAN would like it to be, so ineffective is not the correct description here.

And you don't go from 092 to Ohio class in one step. You have to make a lot of improvements and investments in the process. 094 is the result of the first set of such improvements.

Yes, agree with most except the Ohio part. Not so much disagree, more like unsure why bring up Ohio at all.
I never claimed 094 is better than Ohio.
SSBN has a fairly well defined, singular task. To nuke the targets in times of war before itself is killed.
No proof that 094 needs to be as advanced as Ohio to do its job which is all I say, although Ohio can deliver more punch & with higher probability of success. USN can hit China, now PLAN can also hit US. It's not even Ohio's job to get 094.

Likely Ohio etc is brought up only to soothe some emotions aroused by 094 & the new capabilities it brings, like saying don't worry, our Ohio is still better, when it has little to do with what I said which unfortunately made the discussion longer than it needs to be.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

He is trying to use Ohio class as a benchmark, a standard to judge by. The PLAN would love it if they had a SSBN of Ohio caliber. Have no doubt but that takes time.

 

[Schumacher]

Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

He is trying to use Ohio class as a benchmark, a standard to judge by. The PLAN would love it if they had a SSBN of Ohio caliber. Have no doubt but that takes time.

That's good. Try not to bring it up in replies to my previous posts. It made things unnecessarily complicated.
Since we're here, I don't know what level 096 will be but I hope PLAN will not invest in techs saying we want to be like Ohio, rather what's needed to get the job done. There're only so many nukes you can hit someone with before it becomes meaningless.
Throwing all the costs & techs onto a single boat may not be good when there're many ways to skin a cat.

 

[tphuang]

Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

That's good. Try not to bring it up in replies to my previous posts. It made things unnecessarily complicated.
Since we're here, I don't know what level 096 will be but I hope PLAN will not invest in techs saying we want to be like Ohio, rather what's needed to get the job done. There're only so many nukes you can hit someone with before it becomes meaningless.
Throwing all the costs & techs onto a single boat may not be good when there're many ways to skin a cat.

so looks like you are satisfied. Let's not get into MAD type of topic, since we already have one on that in the strategic defense forum.

 

[Jeff Head]

Re: PLAN submarines Thread II

Not trying to have both ways . Would have been if we're talking old existing PLAN stuffs. I'm only referring to new stuffs 094, 052D etc here. I hope you won't split hairs by saying 094s are already built, the point is they're very new & just become operational and chances of PLAN making a boo boo having their huge investments becoming ineffective so soon is slim.

IMHO, you are trying to have it both ways, Schumacher. Here's why.

The Type 094 design is actually not "very new." Do you remember when the Type 094s were built?

The first one was seen at dock side (meaning it had been launched) in what, 2006? The second in 2007. They probably were each under construction for at least two years before being seen, if not more. This means the Type 094 design was finalized at least ten years ago. It is not only not "very new," it is not "new," at all. The money they have put into the Type 094 is indeed "sunk" money.

It took them four years to commission that first one, in...I believe 2010.

Now, at the end of 2013, it is the Type 096 that the PLAN is investing in, in terms of building. Why?

Because the Type 094s, even with the changes they implemented 3-4 years ago to get the modifications that we see today, did not meet up to their expectations for any long term serial build. So now they are building the Type 096 in the hopes that that design, probably finalized in 2011 or 2012, will.

And that is good. As I have said, the PLAN is embarked on a major development cycle in their nuclear submarine development.

At the same time, the US continues to spend billions on the Ohios. They are constantly being upgraded.

I brought them up because they are indeed the standard in terms of quieting technologies, propulsion, and their weapons for SSBNs world-wide to this day. The PLAN hopes to get to that level of technology.

Will it be exactly the same? Of course not. They will do it their way. However they do it, they want to be that quiet or more so. They want to have that type of efficient nuclear propulsion, or even more. And they want to have those capabilities in their own missiles. But they are not there with the Type 094.

As they get there, the US is also sinking billions more now into its next US Navy SSBN design. That design will not be for 2-4 boats. It will be for at least 12 boats to replace the Ohios. The US can do this because the US technology and manufacturing base in this area is already very mature.

The PLAN is simply trying to mature their own technological and manufacturing base so they can do the same and take advantage of those cost savings and economies of scale I spoke to earlier, and at the same time to close the gap and gain parity.

There is nothing wrong with that. It is not meant as a slight, or an attack on the Chinese or the PLAN. In fact, I recognize and respect greatly how fast they are doing so. But, right now, it is just the way it is. To deny this would be to deny reality...and if they did, it would also mean they would not close the gap. But the PLAN is not denying it, they are continuing to improve their designs step by step, and move forward.

The US Admiral's comments...which started all of this...were, as I said, partially wrong (IMHO) because the Type 094s, despite whatever difficulties, do already have a nuclear deterrent capability with their missiles without ever leaving the protection of areas just off the Chinese coast. I am sure out of the public eye the Admrial realizes and respects this nuclear deterrent capability.

But his public comments were also correct in the sense that the Type 094s are not quiet enough to venture out into the blue water beyond the 1st island chain without being tagged and followed by US subs and other military assets.

So, the Chinese are investing more to get to the next level. Good for them...or as the English might say, bully for them.