09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Blitzo]

I think we can discuss this new propulsion system and its implications without emotive political bickering. Thanks to those who have posted detailed information with sources.

At first glance this technology seems similar to Rolls-Royce 'Permanent Magnet Thrusters'

The technology itself is not necessarily new, and the UK and US have both considered or are planning to apply this tech on their future SSBN classes like Dreadnought and Columbia. And both nations of course have developed and in service ships with electric drive as well which uses similar technology.

The question is not about whether the technology is new but how far China is along compared to the rest of the world and in terms of application. Eg. I would be quite impressed if 09V and 09VI emerge in the next few years and field electric drive and shaftless drive before the Dreadnought and Columbia classes do.

 

[Blitzo]

Source: Recent interview with Prof. MA Weiming shown on CCTV's <Focus Report>.

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(starting at 8:00)

It was reported in the interview that (as claimed by Prof. MA and the narrator):

• China was the first in the world to have successfully developed Medium Voltage DC Integrated Electric Systems.
• Their progress in this field is 10+ years ahead of everyone else, including the US.
  
• They already won multiple awards with key IEP technologies (did not specify), now they're applying for another national award with the IEP project. One of MA's students is the project lead.
  
• The key purpose of their Naval Integrated Electric System is to allow the use of high energy weapons on ships, not just to improve noise, maneuverability, or efficiency. Those side benefits do exist, but the key purpose is to use high energy weapons on ships.
• During the interview MA pointed to a device explaining that it was their first project that has been ahead of the world. He did not explain what the device is, but from the looks of it, it is fairly clear that the device is a shaftless electric pump propulsion system for submarines.
• MA did not mention anything specific about the 095, he did not claim that whatever model will or will not be quieter than whatever else. What he did say was that they're ahead of the world in regards to this technology, and he did say it is something that will be used on their next generation nuclear submarine. He also said the tech is already being applied, implying that construction for said submarine has begun (if not completed).

Tbh I'm a little bit alarmed that Prof Ma is releasing this information so openly. Disclosing these sort of developments so early may prove to be bad opsec. And although he deserves significant fame and recognition for all of his work and service and contributions, I think adopting a lower profile may be good as well.

 

[Lethe]

Yes it would be very impressive if China can field submarines with such propulsion ahead of the US or any other nation. The videos were for informational purposes, nothing more.

Tbh I'm a little bit alarmed that Prof Ma is releasing this information so openly. Disclosing these sort of developments so early may prove to be bad opsec. And although he deserves significant fame and recognition for all of his work and service and contributions, I think adopting a lower profile may be good as well.

I think it is more reasonable to assume that he has been cleared to present the information that he has, which then invites us to consider what that means. Most immediately, it probably means that the project is already well advanced. It also probably means that US intelligence agencies are already aware of China's plans and progress in this respect. More broadly, I think such disclosures reflect China's increasing confidence in its technological achievements and how they stack up to the world, such that disclosures reflect well on and are a source of pride for the Chinese nation, CCP, PLA. As such I think we can expect to see increasing levels of open-ness from China regarding its capabilities going forward, albeit probably not to the extent of western nations. It could also be part of a calculated pushback against the narrative that, while China has made great strides in other areas, that its nuclear submarines still lag considerably behind their western and Russian contemporaries.

 

[broadsword]

I'd rather they keep the info classified. Let the leak come from the US ~INT services so there will be less bickering here.

 

[Blitzo]

Yes it would be very impressive if China can field submarines with such propulsion ahead of the US or any other nation. The videos were for informational purposes, nothing more.



I think it is more reasonable to assume that he has been cleared to present the information that he has, which then invites us to consider what that means. Most immediately, it probably means that the project is already well advanced. It also probably means that US intelligence agencies are already aware of China's plans and progress in this respect. More broadly, I think such disclosures reflect China's increasing confidence in its technological achievements and how they stack up to the world, such that disclosures reflect well on and are a source of pride for the Chinese nation, CCP, PLA. As such I think we can expect to see increasing levels of open-ness from China regarding its capabilities going forward, albeit probably not to the extent of western nations. It could also be part of a calculated pushback against the narrative that, while China has made great strides in other areas, that its nuclear submarines still lag considerably behind their western and Russian contemporaries.

oh yes i'm sure that the high ups cleared him to disclose this information.

I'm wondering if that was wise. I can see some of the reasons for it, like which you laid out, but otoh I think continuing to preserve a state of secrecy for a bit longer at least until a few boats are in service with this technology might be sensible too

 

[antiterror13]

Tbh I'm a little bit alarmed that Prof Ma is releasing this information so openly. Disclosing these sort of developments so early may prove to be bad opsec. And although he deserves significant fame and recognition for all of his work and service and contributions, I think adopting a lower profile may be good as well.

does it mean that China already has a better technology?

 

[Blitzo]

does it mean that China already has a better technology?

Better than what Prof Ma described?

In the past it might have been true that when state media reveal something new it usually means that a successor system is in advanced stages of development, but recently they seem to have become a bit more open about certain subsystems or domains of technology.

In this case I wouldn't be surprised if they were also doing basic research into future technologies and sciences in this domain, but considering this disclosure by Prof Ma doesn't seem to be describing a system that is yet in any sort of frontline service (let alone widespread frontline service) I imagine it is probably on the most cutting edge of the maritime power + propulsion domain that China will be putting out over the foreseeable future.

 

[FORBIN]

Facts are even if a futur 095 - annouced for 2020+ construction to start eventualy in 2018 - get more capable ofc PLAN have do a good choice with new 093A mainly B she get new SSN in time which replace few capable mainly very noisy 091 cuz don' t forget nuclear submarines are the most difficult vessels to build all classes without exception get delays more or less importants in general minimum 2 years.
Construction of nuclear submarines are often compared to the construction of a rocket to go into space...

 

[superdog]

oh yes i'm sure that the high ups cleared him to disclose this information.

I'm wondering if that was wise. I can see some of the reasons for it, like which you laid out, but otoh I think continuing to preserve a state of secrecy for a bit longer at least until a few boats are in service with this technology might be sensible too

Secrecy allows you to 'surprise' your adversary and delay the time it takes for them to adjust to a counter strategy, it also helps you stay low key if the adversary is focused elsewhere.

Disclosure allows you to boost morale internally, and serves as a deterrent against aggressive military probing and intervention strategies. It is bad if your adversary knows everything you're capable of, but it is also bad if their decision makers and public opinion severely underestimates your resolve and capabilities, as that makes the country more eager to use force.

In addition, disclosure helps convince 3rd parties that you have the 'hard' capabilities to back up your 'soft' global initiatives. It may not be a direct influence (China is not pushing for military alliance in the OBOR, nor is it using military threat to enforce its plan), but it instills confidence in the sense that this big picture you're drawing will be there to stay, it won't be like a sand castle at the beach.

Nowadays it is pretty much impossible for China to continue pretending that it is not the single biggest challenger to US military dominance. China has now shifted from ‘hiding yourself and buying some time’ to 'exerting your influence and buildup your game'. So the benefit of secrecy is diminishing and the benefit of disclosure is rising. It makes sense for them to reveal a bit more of their muscles. But of course they will always keep some cards hidden, as do all other military powers.

 

[delft]

By building a large plant to build nuclear submarines, by building four 055's at the same time, by building two aircraft carriers at the same time China shows a confidence in its technology and industrial capabilities similar to what I remember from the impression US gave in the '50's. US was at the time building their highway system and growing their civil aviation industry in its many aspects and they were investing in industries all over the World. China is now building its high speed rail network and is investing in BRI &c.
I think China has decided the time to be excessively modest has now passed.