Shilao, Yankee and Ayi talked about the new missile in
, in very cryptic terms (starting at about 55 minutes in). I have trouble following so feel free to add or correct the below if you have better understanding of what they discussed:
- they are aware of three different ASM in development for UVLS - double conical MaRV ASBM, HGV waverider ASBM and air breathing HCM
- the characteristics of cold launch + lack of rear fairing matches what they've seen of images for one of the three types, however the shape does not closely match what was expected, so it's not safe to rule out that it could be the other two
- one of the three type is technically an upgrade on the other, I imagine they meant the HGV waverider ASBM is an upgrade to MaRV ASBM, "higher on the tech tree" was the term they used. However they also agree that by the time they are aware of such a project all the show stopper technical huddles would have been worked out long ago and since they know of three then three are probably concurrent projects
- although the analogy of "tech tree" was used, they want to emphases that you should not think of these three as linear progression that goes A -> B - > C, it's not like once you have B you retire all the A in service. Rather all three might enter service at once and even be loaded onto a single ship, so that without knowing the opposition's exact ABM capabilities you launch all three types at the same time and present three different attack profiles, making interception even harder
- they seem to be hinting that none of these three are called YJ-21, or alternatively all of them are called YJ-21 with different flavors. Beyond these three there are further missile projects for UVLS and if you include those possibilities then this thing may be any of the 4-5 different projects going on
They also joked that this must be the happiest day for Sutton because he's been saying 055 launched ASBM is coming since 2020 and now he's vindicated.