In the abstract that’s a good point, but in practice force planning can involve many dynamic factors. The type 052Ds we’re seeing completed right now were ordered three years ago, before the 055 design was likely finalized, and a comparable ramp up of 055 production may take another three years yet. The PLAN may be all in on the 055, but if they had a planned fleet size or force capability level to meet in real time they’re not exactly going to hold off production of an older design(that is still very capable) just so they can avoid making more hulls they eventually intend to obsolete later on. Present needs dictate what they build just as much as future plans and, after all, fleet planning works off a rolling schedule. That said, I myself am personally partial to the idea that the intention is to have a 3 tier blue water fleet, but I think there’s enough ambiguity that a good case can be made otherwise. I do think though that we’ll know for sure which way the PLAN is going with intended force force structure if we get new orders of the 052, in either the current D or future E variant. I also think maybe the decision to go with a smaller and less ambitious 054B instead of a larger more ambitious 057 could hint towards their thinking about the future of the 052 type.
055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread
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PiSigma
"the engineer"
I see the PLAN going 52 and 55 together for awhile yet. Part of it is leads time for the project and procurement decisions made years ago. Once a ramp up in production is started, the momentum is hard to stop. Also, if the navy likes the ships, volume and budget comes into play. Even if 55 is much better, there is a certain need for volume, so the compromise would be 52.
I also still think 55 is not a huge revolution in ship design because they are getting 5 ships essentially at the same time. Which means they are confident in the design or that there is nothing super revolutionary in the design that they need years to debug like the 52C. This would mean possibility the crews for 52 and 55 can be cross trained, gives more flexibility for manpower.
If we do see a larger 54 in a 57 ship between the current 54 and 52 in tonnage, then 52 might stop production soon after.
It is either 56 - 54 - 52 - 55 or 56 - 57 - 55.
57 as a beefed up frigate with 55 a beefed up destroyer would be interesting.
I agree. I see the 52D continuing for a while yet, and the 55 also continuing.
Perhaps as many as 18 Type 52Ds which would allow for six of those per fleet plus the two Type Type 52Cs per fleet as well. Then probably at least 12 Type 55s with four per fleet, or up to eighteen to allow for six per fleet.
Also it depends on how they orgnize the carrier battle groups with respect to the fleets. If they want their escorts to be rotated through but not (at the time they are part of the escort) to be a part of each fleet, you may see an addition two Type 052Ds and one Type 055 per carrier...which would mean another two Type 054A/B per carrier...or the potentil Type 057.
As I say, it will depend on how they organize the crriers with respet to the three fleets.
I believe they might rotate esort dutie through the various escorts, but while they are escorting a CSG, they are on detached duties.
Such an organization would then end up with up to:
6 x Type 055 per fleet
6 x Type 052D per fleet
2 x Type 052C er fleet
10 x Type 054A/B per fleet (up to this number, perhaps 8 per fleet)
Then for the carriers:
1 x Type 055 per carrier
2 x Type 052Ds per carrier
2 x Type 054A/B er carrier.
If we factor in three fleets and four carriers you end up with:
22 x Type 055 DDGs
26 x Type 052D DDGs
06 x Type 052C DDGs
38 x Type 054A/B
This is a total of:
54 DDGs
38 FFGs
A modern surface fleet of 92 vessels in the mid to late 2020 time frame.
Again, I agree with this.
What the Type 55 brings is a deeper well for VLS, and probably the type of fleet/group command facilities within the ship that we see on a US Ticonderoga CG, allowing the Type 55 to operate in a battle-space coordination/control role in a stronger manner than a Type 052D perhaps. Also, as I say, with 112 VLS, she brings much deeper well for VLS missiles for better overall fleet defense.
All in all a very amazing transformation that the PLAN will have made in a 25 year period...absolutely amazing actually.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
Its always a good thing when Jeff agrees with my comment
.But 54 DDGs and 38FFGs seems kind of top heavy. I think in future is a 57 design between 54 and 52 is designed it might be the new dumpling ship... Mass production.
But then again, I don't think China needs that many ships.
Also, I think the current three fleets will get reformed in a few years (maybe 10?) The original three fleets are meant for brown water shore defence within the first island chain. With a blue water navy, I think they will evolve into a northish pacific fleet covering Japan, SK, Russia, southish pacific cover SCS, Philippines, up to northern Australia and a Indian ocean fleet for expeditions. If that happens, then I can see Jeff's ddg and ffg numbers make a lot of sense. They might still keep the fleet names, just different scope.
YEs...it will depend heavily on how they organize.Its always a good thing when Jeff agrees with my comment
But 54 DDGs and 38FFGs seems kind of top heavy. I think in future is a 57 design between 54 and 52 is designed it might be the new dumpling ship... Mass production.
But then again, I don't think China needs that many ships.
Also, I think the current three fleets will get reformed in a few years (maybe 10?) The original three fleets are meant for brown water shore defence within the first island chain. With a blue water navy, I think they will evolve into a northish pacific fleet covering Japan, SK, Russia, southish pacific cover SCS, Philippines, up to northern Australia and a Indian ocean fleet for expeditions. If that happens, then I can see Jeff's ddg and ffg numbers make a lot of sense. They might still keep the fleet names, just different scope.
But I think a good first step would be to take the carrier CSGs and make them an independent group to be used as PRC leadership direts and then allow for enough vessels to rotate the escorting vessels into that group so that they all get the benefit, say every twoyears or so, to get the experience.
And yes, that overall number is fairly heavy...but given the regional response to the current PLAN buildup (that is a modest buildup by the other nations in the region) the PRC may see the need to have those types of numbers, particularly as they expand their SLOCs to the INdain Ocean, the Med, Africa, south America, etc.
If The future Chinese blue water fleet is truly to operate well beyond the continent shelf and outside the South China Sea, then Chinese task forces would face a threat from nuclear submarines at least as severe as the threat from surface forces and fleet aviation.
Even if 055 takes over the role of the primary fleet Air defence asset, China still lacks a true blue water fleet surface ASW asset. An 052 sized hull with IEP would seem to seem to be ideal for a blue water fleet ASW destroyer analogous to the now defunct Spruance and Russia Udaloy.
Since the end of the Cold War, the down grading of threat has allowed the USN to save cost and concentrate on one type of surface warship. This should not become taken as a future fleet paradigm. I strongly believe if the competition between USN and PLAN intensifies in both technology and capability, fleets on both sides will become more specialiEd again with dedicated assets to handle particular strengths of the opponent.
Even if 055 takes over the role of the primary fleet Air defence asset, China still lacks a true blue water fleet surface ASW asset. An 052 sized hull with IEP would seem to seem to be ideal for a blue water fleet ASW destroyer analogous to the now defunct Spruance and Russia Udaloy.
Since the end of the Cold War, the down grading of threat has allowed the USN to save cost and concentrate on one type of surface warship. This should not become taken as a future fleet paradigm. I strongly believe if the competition between USN and PLAN intensifies in both technology and capability, fleets on both sides will become more specialiEd again with dedicated assets to handle particular strengths of the opponent.
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PiSigma
"the engineer"
I don't see the Chinese navy ever becoming global in the sense of the British or american navies. So south america, west Africa and the med would only be places to visit but not places to base. Maybe in 50 years, who knows. Everything else agreed.
Whether it is top heavy or not depends on whether the Chinese navy expects to fight carrier to carrier in one place (say west pacific) while defending convoys (say Indian Ocean) in another. If so, then it needs a lot more lower end vessels.
But if the Chinese carriers are intended as the outer screen say 1000 miles beyond the Chinese shore while Chinese maritime traffic operates behind this, then the heavy assets form a de facto distant convoy escort and the number of smaller vessels canprohaps be reduced.
Geography will make it unlikely for the Chinese navy to ever maintain a larger presence than barely sufficient to show the flag in the North Atlantic or the Mediterranean.
But I can imagine the Chinese navy can become dominating presence in the north west pacific imside an arc defined by Bering Strait, Solomon isles, New Zealand, and Srilanka, with the ability to conduct large scale fleet operation from there throughout the pacific and Indian oceans, and even parts of south Atlantic in say 30-50 years.
In 10-20 years China and the US will undoubtedly collide at Bering straits as the Arctic Ocean becomes ever more icefree, and a new area of great game.
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