I would not be surprised if we see a future VLS launched hypersonic antiship glider for the PLAN.
Don't know why you guys emphasizing on 3 units per year...
We all know Chinese have all (resources/capacity/capability/manpower/shipyards/finance/technology) enough to churn out 7 - 10 in a year, maybe more & it applies to CGs/DDGs/FFGs/OPVs/FACs/SSKs/LPDs except SSBNs/SSNs/LHDs & carriers.
Therefore, its all depends on them i.e.
- How many they want in a year.
- What they want.
- When they want.
- From where they want.
Economics also play a part.
Civilian ship orders have pretty much collapsed in the wake of the 2008 financial crash and has still not recovered.
It’s not coincidence that the PLAN’s current unprecedented fleet expansion started only a few years after that, just as Chinese yards were finishing their existing orderbooks but have little new work coming in.
The PLAN fleet expansions is as much about government support of key Chinese shipyards in these difficult times as it is about just what the PLAN might need.
As such, the broader world economic outlook will also have a big impact on just how many destroyers the PLAN ends up having.
If civilian orders picks up again in a big way, I fully expect PLAN fleet expansion to slow down. However, if the world economy continues to be sluggish, then Beijing will keep allocating funds for the PLAN to buy new warships to help keep all the highly skilled shipyard workers employed until civilian orders pick up again.
So depending on how long it will take for the civilian shipping industry to recover, the PLAN may well end up with a 100+ DDG fleet.
Despite all the growth in recent years, China’s defence budget has barely increased much as a percentage of GDP, so China has massive leeway for further military expansion without putting undue strain on its
economy.
China could quite easily keep the current fleet expansion rate for at least another decade at least, and they will do just that if it is what it will take to safeguard its shipbuilding industry, because Beijing sees shipbuilding as a critical national security industry.