055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread
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kwaigonegin
Colonel
It's like tossing a coin. Every toss gives you a 50/50 chance REGARDLESS of the number of tosses done prior. Same with missile hits. It's call Gambler's fallacy.
Unlike a coin toss however, in the case of a hit probability, there are 100000000X other variables at play so each missile release has a slight differentiation and variation from the last one including speed, wind, angle of BOTH vehicles and other factoids.
the 2nd release could be 49.5% vs 50.5% etc and so forth.
Unlike a coin toss however, in the case of a hit probability, there are 100000000X other variables at play so each missile release has a slight differentiation and variation from the last one including speed, wind, angle of BOTH vehicles and other factoids.
the 2nd release could be 49.5% vs 50.5% etc and so forth.
This is just wrong. What makes you think that the probability of the first missile making it or not making it to the "kill box" has anything to do with the second missile making it or not making it to the "kill box"? What is the mechanism behind the first missile's alleged influence on the second missile? Are they telepathically communicating with each other? Where are you even getting this from??? What happens to the first missile has NO influence on what happens to the second missile.
I don't know what the LOL is for, but you clearly don't understand probability and statistics, even after the very obvious coin toss example. If an air defense missile, say the RIM-2 Terrier, from the 1960's were used against a "latest-block" Exocet (which is still subsonic, non-stealthy, and non-maneuvering, meaning the fact that it's latest-block is meaningless for this discussion) in a salvo, the probability of AT LEAST ONE MISSILE out of the entire salvo hitting the Exocet will INCREASE as you put more missiles into the salvo, even though the Pk of each Terrier is 1) independent, 2) constant, and 3) low. Let's say it has a bad Pk of 0.4 against missiles. A salvo of 6 Terriers vs a single Exocet will STILL net you a 95.3344% of at least one of them hitting the missile. The probability would in fact NOT be "still very close to said low Pk". It would be very high with 6 Terriers. Just because you don't understand the math and don't want to believe it doesn't mean it's somehow not true.
This "chain rule" is not an "approximation", whatever you mean by that. You are literally arguing against math at this point. Arguing against math will result in a loss every single time.
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I'm not sure what you're trying to argue here, but tossing a coin 4 times and expecting 4 tails in a row is NOT 50%. The actual probability of this occurring is only 6.25%; conversely the probability that at least one out of four coin flips results in a heads is 93.75%. Statistically, averaged out over an infinite amount of time, the quadruple coin flips will eventually average out to approximately 50% heads and 50% tails, but this is NOT what we are talking about, and I think both you and Jura are hung up about this.
vesicles
Colonel
I think we are confusing with the mathematics here. If a missile launching system has a hypothetical accuracy of 90%, this "90%" value has been treated with the proper probability calculations, which means hitting% of each individual missile has been incorporated into the calculation in deriving the final mean value of 90% (considering individual hitting % over a large set of launches).
Keep in mind that, for large data sets, the mean of the data is effectively the probability. You should not perform any further treatment.
By multiplying 90% X times (X is the # of launch attempts) (like some posters are doing), you are simply treating the probability calculation twice.
Keep in mind that, for large data sets, the mean of the data is effectively the probability. You should not perform any further treatment.
By multiplying 90% X times (X is the # of launch attempts) (like some posters are doing), you are simply treating the probability calculation twice.
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No, the Pk is for ONE launch. Successive launches and the summation of their probabilities are a separate issue.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
again you are falling for what is call a gamblers fallacy. Each individual coin toss is 50/50 chance and prior coin toss has NO bearing on the next result. Even if you throw 5 tails in a row does not mean your next attempt will likely be heads.
vesicles
Colonel
How was Pk calculated from actual launches? It makes absolutely no sense that someone just randomly chooses a missile and launches it. then they magically come up with a number of probability/accuracy. Launching one single missile means you either hit it (probability of 1) or miss it (probability of 0). how do you derive any other probability values? They must launch numerous missiles against numerous targets. With a large enough data set (satisfying the power analysis), they then calculate mean and probability. at this stage, mean is effectively probability. they might say such probability is for estimating a single missile launch, that number is derived from large data set and should stand for large number of launches without further manipulation.
Now, will your next missile actually hit its target? No one knows, just like no one knows if a professional basketball player will his his next basket. However, if he shoots enough shots, his overall success % will be close to his probability calculated from his previous performance. In that sense, launching numerous missiles will actually get you close to your calculated probability of hitting a single target. Thus, it is actually beneficial for missile launching systems to fire against more targets if you want it to perform to its potential.
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Yes, but that is only true when you've already tossed five tails and somehow beat the odds. Before you starting tossing the coin, the probability of your throwing five tails is 3.125%.
Likewise, the probability of one missile's hitting the target before you launch it is 0.7. The probability of launching five missiles and having at least one hit is 1 - 0.3^5 = 0.99757 or 99.757%. However, if by some miracle you launch all of them and they all end up missing then you're back to square one and the chances of your next missile's successfully intercepting the target is 0.7.
Dunno. I'd assume they compile it from a variety of sources, from both test launches and combat launches. What I do know is that missile Pks are always given for one missile, not one salvo of missiles.
I am not falling for gambler's fallacy. You are just not understanding statistics. Yes, it is true that even if you get 5 heads in a row, the chance of the next toss being heads is still 50%. But again this is NOT what we have been talking about. We are talking about something similar to the chance of getting all 5 tosses to result in heads. The chance of all 5 tosses being heads is most definitely NOT 50%. This is true despite the fact that each toss is independent of the other tosses. If you truly don't understand this concept, I am not only flabbergasted, but I would also just love to play a little gambling game with you for real money payable via PayPal. I'll even give you 10 to 1 odds on my proposal. Are you up for this game? I'm actually being serious here.
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