055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread

[latenlazy]

Really. How about we make a wager on what kind of VLS will be on the 055? I'll even give you FIVE TO ONE odds. $500 my risk, $100 your risk. Let's put our money where our mouths are. I'm absolutely serious here.

Or, are you just going to admit that you know as equally well as I do what kind of VLS is going to be on the 055?

Chill. This isn't a dick measuring contest. I'm just looking at how strongly each conclusion is constructed, and I see no reason why we should be so confident that the 055 will have exactly the same VLS as the 052D. I think we can be reasonably confident they are built to the same standard, but that is not the same thing.

As for the MFR, I don't know if we are looking at the same MFR, but I literally have no idea what you are talking about here.

Frankly I don't know what *you're* talking about, because assuming the 055 has a bigger superstructure than the 052D, it would seem the MFR on the 055 would also be bigger.

Oh, it's "a lot" now? Which ones constituted "a lot" for you, again? Because I didn't see any kind of list in your post here that would suggest "a lot", whereas I definitely did give you a lot on my list.

The superstructure, which has two slots for what appears to be bigger MFRs than the 052D, and the mast, which constitutes 3 empty slots for radar arrays and an ESM tower that we don't have analogues for on the 052D. No matter how you try to disregard the mast structure, these differences in electronic equipment are *not* trivial. It's why my point about assuming different systems emphasizes differences in the electronic suite.

 

[Jura The idiot]

Really. How about we make a wager on what kind of VLS will be on the 055? I'll even give you FIVE TO ONE odds. $500 my risk, $100 your risk. Let's put our money where our mouths are. I'm absolutely serious here.

...

LOL betting office here?

generally the Chinese Navy doesn't develop concurrently (an example ... borrowing from the RN Type 45 ... launching hulls designed for the VLS in a design stage, which then could mean if the VLS development was delayed/had issues, the hulls would have no/dysfunctional VLS for some time), or it does?

 

[Blitzo]

Again, who can disagree with "5 is greater than 4"? You've reduced your claims to something so obviously true and yet so simultaneously meaningless that agreeing that the earth travels around the sun isn't much of a claim at all. When I said "meh" to those particular 055 subsystems I was giving my personal guesstimation of their likely advancement over the 052D. Your response is essentially that IF the advancements are advanced enough, then these advanced subsystems could theoretically result in some kind of advancement in 055 warfighting capability over the 052D. WOW, that's a truly incisive and meaningful riposte right there.

Underlined part is important.
I don't think your original post mentioned that the "meh" was your personal guestimation of their likely advancement over 052D, and I don't think subsequent replies did so either.

Needless to say, knowing now that the "meh" was because you yourself thought those advancements itself would be "meh" then this strand of discussion could have been ended a long time ago.

You can disagree all you want, but it doesn't change the facts of the matter or the most straightforward interpretation of the initial post. This post was made in the 055 thread. The poster was expressing his general admiration of the 3 055 hulls being simultaneously produced, and saying that advancements in technology allowed this to happen. It takes a truly biased mind to think that this same gushing enthusiasm would have been applied to the 052D's construction schedule; in fact as far as I can tell, it was NOT. You are just plainly and obviously wrong here.

Saying advancements in technology allowed 055's manner of production, is very different to saying that those advancements in technology didn't exist before 055's manner of production. Lack of enthusiasm towards 052D's manner of production has no relation on whether or not those advancements existed or didn't exist when 052D was designed/developed/produced.

Yes, his enthusiasm for 055's manner of production probably would not have been applied to 052D's manner of production because 052D was produced at a slower initial rate than 055 is and 052D was also a derivative of a proven hull design rather than a clean sheet hull design.
Him showing enthusiasm or admiration for 055's manner of production reflecting his belief that advancements of computing/modelling etc played a role in its production, does not exclude the notion that those advancements also playing a role in 052D's production.


Let's use an analogy.
Say, I bought a high end gaming laptop to replace my old laptop, allowing me to play games at very high graphics settings.
However, for the first few months after I've bought the laptop, I am still playing games which are only medium graphics settings rather games on very high graphics settings -- maybe they're older games which don't have very high graphics settings to begin with, or maybe I haven't got any new games yet, whatever. The older games are on medium graphics settings, but they still run smoother than my older laptop ran them.
But then, one day many months after I bought my new laptop, I finally buy a game that can take more advantage of the laptop with those very high graphics settings and for the first time I play a game using its very high graphics settings, and I would say to my nerd friends that I am able to play games on very high graphics settings because of my new gaming laptop.
However, me saying that I am now able to play games on very high graphics settings because of my new gaming laptop does not mean that I didn't possess a high end gaming laptop before I first played the new games.

So, in this case, the high end gaming laptop is equal to the "advancements in computing/design/modelling" subotai was referring to; me playing older games on medium graphics setting is the manner of production of 052D which is interpreted as not "gush-worthy" but the older games running smoother than my old laptop means the new laptop is still playing a role in its graphics; and finally me playing my new games on very high graphics settings is the manner of production of 055 which we now see.

Similarly, just because 055's manner of production now (clean sheet hull, three being built at once at two shipyards) is a reflection of advancements in computing/modelling/design, doesn't mean that those advancements didn't exist before 055's production, or that they didn't play a role in the design/development/production process of a previous ship like the 052D.

Wrong again. "Initial rate of production" is a completely fabricated term that you made up in this very thread to describe "going to be built faster initially but will somehow end up having an underwhelming launch rate". I have no doubt nobody else views 055 construction in this surreally artificial, fabricated manner. Also, what people who matter in the industry are impressed with is results, meaning how fast can you put hulls into the water; I'm guessing they also don't make this kind of weird artificial distinction. I'm pretty sure this is also the basis of everyone on SDF's satisfaction (except yours) with the appearance of 3 055 hulls. Unlike you, we do not distinguish some kind of "initial" rate of production with rate of launch and our being impressed with the 055's rollout is as contingent on initial build rate as it is on launch rate, because as I said, there should be no need to distinguish between the two. Who here has ever expressed such a queer distinction until you did in this very thread???

What even is a "fabricated term"? If you mean it's a term I created to refer to something specific for the purposes of this discussion, then sure it's a fabricated term.
I specified it, because it was the area of interest for this discussion relating to subotai's statement about confidence in the ship's design.

Obviously it would make no sense to make sense of subotai's posts in the context of overall rate of production, because such a thing would be illogical.
Instead, the point would be to consider in what way subotai's posts make sense -- and I do not think it is a stretch at all to point at the initial rate of production of 055 at the outset of its production as the important evidence to look at when trying to make sense of "confidence in the ship's design as a result of advances in computing/modelling etc".

"Confidence" indeed. Spin away, Bltizo.

I don't see how I am relevant here.

 

[Iron Man]

Chill. This isn't a dick measuring contest. I'm just looking at how strongly each conclusion is constructed, and I see no reason why we should be so confident that the 055 will have exactly the same VLS as the 052D. I think we can be reasonably confident they are built to the same standard, but that is not the same thing.

Again, you're just arguing now for the sake of arguing. Whether you want to admit to it or not, I'm pretty sure we both have the same amount of confidence exactly which VLS will be on the 055.

Frankly I don't know what *you're* talking about, because assuming the 055 has a bigger superstructure than the 052D, it would seem the MFR on the 055 would also be bigger.

Are you sure you don't know what I'm talking about?



Yes, it does look like the 055's superstructure is bigger, doesn't it?

The superstructure, which has two slots for what appears to be bigger MFRs than the 052D, and the mast, which constitutes 3 empty slots for radar arrays and an ESM tower that we don't have analogues for on the 052D. No matter how you try to disregard the mast structure, these differences in electronic equipment are *not* trivial. It's why my point about assuming different systems emphasizes differences in the electronic suite.

It's strange that you seem SO willing to speculate on what's on the main mast with utter and complete abandon (3 empty slots for "radar arrays" even!), and yet something as plainly obvious as the VLS choice, the powerplant choice, and the main radar choice is still such a mystery to you. BTW, I have ALREADY said long ago that the ESM mast on top of the main mast is new and obviously represents something 'different'.

 

[latenlazy]

Again, you're just arguing now for the sake of arguing. Whether you want to admit to it or not, I'm pretty sure we both have the same amount of confidence exactly which VLS will be on the 055.

And you're now dodging my points to take throwaway stabs at my intentions. As I have said before, and as I maintain right now, I am not nearly as certain about the 055's VLS as you are. As I made evidently clear in an earlier reply, your confident presumptions are built on speculative assertions, and while I don't question that those speculative assertions have merit, they are still speculative. You don't have to agree with my reasoning, but don't be an ass.

Are you sure you don't know what I'm talking about?

View attachment 36368

Yes, it does look like the 055's superstructure is bigger, doesn't it?

Yes, pretty sure I don't, because you just pointed at two pictures with no actual attempt to measure the relative sizes of each radar slot. Sure, there might be more free space around the slots on the 055's superstructure, but those slots on the 055 mockup could both be bigger than 052D's and still be smaller relative to the 055's superstructure. If you want to make your point and claim stronger evidence, do an actual size comparison. Don't just point and presume.

Not to mention, we don't actually know what goes into those slots. Even if those slots were the same size, the array that goes in there could have the same footprint as the Type 346 and still be a different radar. After all, the 052D shares the same slot as the 052C, but its radar was upgraded. Mind, since you seem to like to misrepresent my arguments, I am not saying this will actually be the case, just that based on prior observations we have just as much reason to believe that the radar won't be identical as we do that it will.

It's strange that you seem SO willing to speculate on what's on the main mast with utter and complete abandon (3 empty slots for "radar arrays" even!), and yet something as plainly obvious as the VLS choice, the powerplant choice, and the main radar choice is still such a mystery to you.

Actually, if you've been reading carefully, I have *not* been speculating anything about what's on the main mast. Pointing out those slots have no visual analogue to the 052D's mast isn't speculation. I am not making any assertion of what goes into the mast, just that we shouldn't assume the 055's mast will have identical equipment to the 052D's given that they don't have identifiable features, using *your* standard of drawing visual comparisons. Recall, I started this discussion by pointing out that assuming the 055's equipment will be identical to the 052D's is equally dubious as assuming it won't, not more dubious.

 

[Iron Man]

Underlined part is important.
I don't think your original post mentioned that the "meh" was your personal guestimation of their likely advancement over 052D, and I don't think subsequent replies did so either.

Needless to say, knowing now that the "meh" was because you yourself thought those advancements itself would be "meh" then this strand of discussion could have been ended a long time ago.

TBH I'm not sure how you could have interpreted me saying "meh" to those subsystems you mentioned as anything other than me drawing a conclusion about their perceived advancements.

Saying advancements in technology allowed 055's manner of production, is very different to saying that those advancements in technology didn't exist before 055's manner of production. Lack of enthusiasm towards 052D's manner of production has no relation on whether or not those advancements existed or didn't exist when 052D was designed/developed/produced.

Yes, his enthusiasm for 055's manner of production probably would not have been applied to 052D's manner of production because 052D was produced at a slower initial rate than 055 is and 052D was also a derivative of a proven hull design rather than a clean sheet hull design.
Him showing enthusiasm or admiration for 055's manner of production reflecting his belief that advancements of computing/modelling etc played a role in its production, does not exclude the notion that those advancements also playing a role in 052D's production.

Let's use an analogy.
Say, I bought a high end gaming laptop to replace my old laptop, allowing me to play games at very high graphics settings.
However, for the first few months after I've bought the laptop, I am still playing games which are only medium graphics settings rather games on very high graphics settings -- maybe they're older games which don't have very high graphics settings to begin with, or maybe I haven't got any new games yet, whatever. The older games are on medium graphics settings, but they still run smoother than my older laptop ran them.
But then, one day many months after I bought my new laptop, I finally buy a game that can take more advantage of the laptop with those very high graphics settings and for the first time I play a game using its very high graphics settings, and I would say to my nerd friends that I am able to play games on very high graphics settings because of my new gaming laptop.
However, me saying that I am now able to play games on very high graphics settings because of my new gaming laptop does not mean that I didn't possess a high end gaming laptop before I first played the new games.

So, in this case, the high end gaming laptop is equal to the "advancements in computing/design/modelling" subotai was referring to; me playing older games on medium graphics setting is the manner of production of 052D which is interpreted as not "gush-worthy" but the older games running smoother than my old laptop means the new laptop is still playing a role in its graphics; and finally me playing my new games on very high graphics settings is the manner of production of 055 which we now see.

Similarly, just because 055's manner of production now (clean sheet hull, three being built at once at two shipyards) is a reflection of advancements in computing/modelling/design, doesn't mean that those advancements didn't exist before 055's production, or that they didn't play a role in the design/development/production process of a previous ship like the 052D.

Umm, yes these advancements DID exist before the 055's production. We AREN'T debating whether they existed before the 055's production or even before the 052D's production. I have been arguing that this is in fact the case this entire time as a key point. We ARE debating whether the OP believed these advancements existed before the 052D's introduction, and by a straight reading this is clearly NOT the correct interpretation, especially because words like "fruition" were being applied to the 055's construction. You don't use "fruition" if the actual time of "fruition" was actually 5 blooming years ago during the 052D's introduction, you use because you believe these technologies are fruiting NOW, during or just before the 055's production. Taking SanWenYu's statement that subotai responded to for context, this is clearly what is going on.

"Agreed. It could also be indicating that the Chinese naval shipbuilding industry is maturing and, more importantly, most if not all components of 055 have met PLAN's satisfaction."

"There is another aspect to this which is hard to prove, but could also make big changes to what we are seeing. That is the use of super computers, modeling and simulation. China has been pouring massive money into this space for decades and we could be seeing the fruition of this as a large amount of one design come out, showing confidence in the model. Historically, China would done one or two of a physical design, learn from the real world, change and iterate in new versions."

What even is a "fabricated term"? If you mean it's a term I created to refer to something specific for the purposes of this discussion, then sure it's a fabricated term.
I specified it, because it was the area of interest for this discussion relating to subotai's statement about confidence in the ship's design.

Obviously it would make no sense to make sense of subotai's posts in the context of overall rate of production, because such a thing would be illogical.
Instead, the point would be to consider in what way subotai's posts make sense -- and I do not think it is a stretch at all to point at the initial rate of production of 055 at the outset of its production as the important evidence to look at when trying to make sense of "confidence in the ship's design as a result of advances in computing/modelling etc".

Yes, I'm glad you agree it's a term you fabricated. But why would a context of "overall rate of production" be "illogical"? This makes absolutely no sense to me. Overall rate of production is easily influenced if not more by design and production advancements as some kind of "initial" rate of production, a term and concept which is not natural to any discussion of ship production. If it is, where you have heard this concept discussed before prior to your introduction of it in this very thread? This is possibly THE most artificial concept you have brought up yet to try and weave your twists of logic to win your arguments. Please point me to any ship production online article or discussion which distinguishes between "initial" rate of production as some kind of separate entity from "overall" rate of production, and who else in the world cares about the former more than the latter.

I don't see how I am relevant here.

Well, it's all about the confidence, you said. If this poster is correct regarding what his PLAN officer dinner buddies are saying, the conclusion that comes from using ALL four initial ships essentially as test beds for gradual improvements to the class speak somewhat less to some kind of effusive confidence about the 055's design and more to PLAN's cautious traditional stepwise approach to design. This makes it FAR less likely that XYZABCDEFG of your "advancements" will be present on any given ship in the initial batch. More like XYZ. Or maybe just XY. Or maybe even just X.

 

[Iron Man]

And you're now dodging my points to take throwaway stabs at my intentions. As I have said before, and as I maintain right now, I am not nearly as certain about the 055's VLS as you are. As I made evidently clear in an earlier reply, your confident presumptions are built on speculative assertions, and while I don't question that those speculative assertions have merit, they are still speculative. You don't have to agree with my reasoning, but don't be an ass.

Your points are what, that the likelihood of 052D-type universal VLS is also what's on the 055 is "speculative"? Yes, technically it is speculative because we don't yet physically see what's on the 055, but given the vast amount of literature we already have access to that the VLS on the 052D is the new standard VLS for the PLAN AND the complete lack of evidence of any other new VLS in design or production, I would definitely and confidently say that your lack of willingness to acknowledge this VLS being present on the 055 is due to your desire to argue for the sake of arguing. Neither of us expect any other VLS to be on that ship; just be honest about it.

Yes, pretty sure I don't, because you just pointed at two pictures with no actual attempt to measure the relative sizes of each radar slot. Sure, there might be more free space around the slots on the 055's superstructure, but those slots on the 055 mockup could both be bigger than 052D's and still be smaller relative to the 055's superstructure. If you want to make your point and claim stronger evidence, do an actual size comparison. Don't just point and presume.

Why do a detailed size comparison when you will just reject out of hand anyway, as you've already implied? Isn't that grossly disingenuous? Even without a direct measurement you can guesstimate the sizes are almost exactly the same if not exactly the same by looking at the deck level heights, which are likely to be persevered across modern PLAN ships (~2.5m). Once you add the radar cover and the "windshield wiper" the vertical coverage of the radar between the two ships will end up being the same, i.e. just slightly less than 2 decks high. The difference in the size of the superstructures comes from the WIDTH of the superstructures, not their heights, both of which are 4 decks high counting up from the amidships level.

Not to mention, we don't actually know what goes into those slots. Even if those slots were the same size, the array that goes in there could have the same footprint as the Type 346 and still be a different radar. After all, the 052D shares the same slot as the 052C, but its radar was upgraded. Mind, since you seem to like to misrepresent my arguments, I am not saying this will actually be the case, just that based on prior observations we have just as much reason to believe that the radar won't be identical as we do that it will.

Once again you're just flatly wrong here:



The Type 346A is CLEARLY larger than the 346, which actually necessitated a redesign of the 052C's superstructure to accommodate the larger panel faces of the 346A.

Actually, if you've been reading carefully, I have *not* been speculating anything about what's on the main mast. Pointing out those slots have no visual analogue to the 052D's mast isn't speculation. I am not making any assertion of what goes into the mast, just that we shouldn't assume the 055's mast will have identical equipment to the 052D's given that they don't have identifiable features, using *your* standard of drawing visual comparisons. Recall, I started this discussion by pointing out that assuming the 055's equipment will be identical to the 052D's is equally dubious as assuming it won't, not more dubious.

You most definitely HAVE been speculating about what's on the main mast. I specifically quoted your speculation: you claimed that those three slots were for "radars". Well how do you know they are for "radars"? I already listed for you all the possibilities those slots could be used for, only one of which was "radars". BTW, I am also not speculating that the equipment going into the main mast is likely to be the same as what's on the external surface of the 052D. I have previously speculated myself that they are likely to be for ECM, since we have not yet seen anything like this on the Wuhan mockup and it is clearly going to be present on the 055 in some form. The main mast and those slots seem as likely a location as any. Now if it is ECM, this still does not definitively argue for a difference in hardware from 052D to 055 (though it may suggest it IMO), i.e. integrated vs enclosed vs externally mounted. In any case, we have both been speculating on many things about the 055 is my point here.

 

[latenlazy]

Your points are what, that the likelihood of 052D-type universal VLS is also what's on the 055 is "speculative"? Yes, technically it is speculative because we don't yet physically see what's on the 055, but given the vast amount of literature we already have access to that the VLS on the 052D is the new standard VLS for the PLAN AND the complete lack of evidence of any other new VLS in design or production, I would definitely and confidently say that your lack of willingness to acknowledge this VLS being present on the 055 is due to your desire to argue for the sake of arguing. Neither of us expect any other VLS to be on that ship; just be honest about it.

We have vast amounts of literature to show that the standard the 052D's VLS was built on is the new standard of VLS for the PLAN. We don't have much actual evidence that the 052D's specific VLS itself is the new standard. If I'm wrong about this, I would welcome sources that indicate the standard is in fact the latter and not the former.

Why do a detailed size comparison when you will just reject out of hand anyway, as you've already implied? Isn't that grossly disingenuous? Even without a direct measurement you can guesstimate the sizes are almost exactly the same if not exactly the same by looking at the deck level heights, which are likely to be persevered across modern PLAN ships (~2.5m). Once you add the radar cover and the "windshield wiper" the vertical coverage of the radar between the two ships will end up being the same, i.e. just slightly less than 2 decks high. The difference in the size of the superstructures comes from the WIDTH of the superstructures, not their heights, both of which are 4 decks high counting up from the amidships level.

If you do an actual size comparison, with measurements, I will not reject out of hand, but even if I did, it would only strengthen your case. I refuse to draw strong conclusions from the wanton guesstimation that you are currently engaged in without direct measurements in part because I have seen people attempt absurd exercises like assuming the J-20 and F-22 have the same canopy size to justify the J-20 is a 23m behemoth. Do the actual work, or don't be so smug.

Once again you're just flatly wrong here:

View attachment 36369

The Type 346A is CLEARLY larger than the 346, which actually necessitated a redesign of the 052C's superstructure to accommodate the larger panel faces of the 346A.

I stand corrected here. Now do the same direct comparison for the 055 and 052D, which is actually the main point of contention, if you want to win that claim.

You most definitely HAVE been speculating about what's on the main mast. I specifically quoted your speculation: you claimed that those three slots were for "radars". Well how do you know they are for "radars"? I already listed for you all the possibilities those slots could be used for, only one of which was "radars". BTW, I am also not speculating that the equipment going into the main mast is likely to be the same as what's on the external surface of the 052D. I have previously speculated myself that they are likely to be for ECM, since we have not yet seen anything like this on the Wuhan mockup and it is clearly going to be present on the 055 in some form. The main mast and those slots seem as likely a location as any. Now if it is ECM, this still does not definitively argue for a difference in hardware from 052D to 055 (though it may suggest it IMO), i.e. integrated vs enclosed vs externally mounted. In any case, we have both been speculating on many things about the 055 is my point here.

Okay, and if they're not radars, what are they? My offhand assertion that they are radars was irrelevant to my main point.

That we are both speculating on many things about the 055 is also my point, which is why my original entry into this debate was to point out that we actually can't say the burden of evidence is against the 055 having more "advanced war fighting capability" than the 052D, because there are some important and essential unknowns and differences that are important determinants of what that "war fighting capability" looks like. The burden of proof is *balanced* on this contention.

 

[Iron Man]

We have vast amounts of literature to show that the standard the 052D's VLS was built on is the new standard of VLS for the PLAN. We don't have much actual evidence that the 052D's specific VLS itself is the new standard. If I'm wrong about this, I would welcome sources that indicate the standard is in fact the latter and not the former.

OMG, are you even serious here? You are now reduced to this kind of argumentative spindoctoring inanity to avoid the obvious??? I'm not even going to indulge this here. If you are willing to resort to this kind of senselessness, it's no longer worth it to further argue this point with you. Welcome to a new low.

If you do an actual size comparison, with measurements, I will not reject out of hand, but even if I did, it would only strengthen your case. I refuse to draw strong conclusions from the wanton guesstimation that you are currently engaged in without direct measurements in part because I have seen people attempt absurd exercises like assuming the J-20 and F-22 have the same canopy size to justify the J-20 is a 23m behemoth. Do the actual work, or don't be so smug.

I stand corrected here. Now do the same direct comparison for the 055 and 052D, which is actually the main point of contention, if you want to win that claim.

No thanks, man. It's going to take more time to do this than I care to tonight, and I am absolutely not going to do something that takes me a lot of time and takes you a few flippant seconds to dismiss with a wave of your hand and a few strokes of your keyboard.

Okay, and if they're not radars, what are they? My offhand assertion that they are radars was irrelevant to my main point.

That we are both speculating on many things about the 055 is also my point, which is why my original entry into this debate was to point out that we actually can't say the burden of evidence is against the 055 having more "advanced war fighting capability" than the 052D, because there are some important and essential unknowns and differences that are important determinants of what that "war fighting capability" looks like.

I guess you just ignored my latest response? Did you just somehow miss an entire paragraph where I was talking about ECM? Did you forget a previous response from me to you listing multiple other possibilities for those slots? Regardless of what they are, "3 radar arrays" on the main mast are an absolute non-starter as a speculation. My point is that my speculations are reasonable and well within the bounds of the obvious and expected, whereas your speculations have absolutely no basis in previous evidence or even previous speculation.

 

[Orthan]

Has there been new photos of the 055 construction ? i think its been awhile since we got the first ones.