Alrighty, so over the last few days variations of this latest satellite picture of JNCX shipyard has emerged, and is a more up to date photo compared to what we've had previously. I don't think it is up to date to the current present, but based on my estimates it was probably taken within the last two weeks or so. Google Earth I don't think has been updated yet with this (assuming it will be eventually used to update GE), so right now we only have these screen capture pictures to work with. But they're still pretty good.
It's been posted on CDF already, but not here, and now that I have a bit of time I'd like to offer my interpretations and analysis of this juicy piece of IMINT.
First of all, is the original picture:
Second, is the original picture with my annotations, which I will refer to in the rest of this post:
To explain these annotations:
In green:
-Bow: I believe is the bow section of 055 unit 1. Note, this bow section is not fully complete as I believe the most immediate bow section has not been installed when this picture was taken.
-Stern: I believe is the stern and amidships section of 055 unit 1
-Extra: I believe this is a module for 055 unit 2 (I'll explain more on this later)
In red:
-I have "Ignore 1" and "Ignore 2" -- these are merged together overlays of the Bow and Stern sections, not done by me but part of the original picture. They are useful for providing a rough guide to how big 055 might be compared to the 052D, but unfortunately whoever stitched them together added a few extra pixels between the sections so it is just a little bit larger than it actually is.
In yellow, near the bottom:
-I've circled a part of the basin entry area, called "Basin Width". This will come into play when we consider the 055's length.
So, obviously the first thing this photo allows us to do is to try and finally estimate 055's length with virtually all the modules finally here. There are a few ways of doing it, even though the latest Google Earth imagery is not up to date.
That is by measuring certain known fixed quantities on Google Earth, and comparing the ratio between those lengths with the 055 sections.
The most accurate way at this point is to compare the Bow section and Stern section separately and add them together for an estimate.
In my case, I'm going to use the "Basin Width" as one fixed quantity, and the 052D's length as another fixed quantity, both of which can be measured by anyone on Google Earth right now.
Basin Width I get is consistently about 39.7m after repeated measures.
052D's length I get is consistently 156.6m after repeated measures.
The next step is to consider the ratio of the reference lengths to the 055 section lengths, which can be done via pixel measurements or just using a ruler on the screen. Let's call it "Section to reference length ratio, or "section screen size/reference length screen size".
Consistency is key.
Now, a bit of maths, the basic formula I'm using is:
055 estimated total length = (Bow section to reference length ratio) x reference length + (Stern section to reference length ratio) x reference length
I will repeat those measures using both the Basin width length as well as the 052D length, to get two measures using two different reference lengths.
Using basin width length:
055 estimated total length = (1.74) x 39.7m + (2.69) x 39.7m = 175.8m
Using 052D length:
055 estimated total length = (0.44) x 156.6m + (0.68) x 156.6m = 175.4m
So I think the two measurements are pretty close, but of course this also needs to account for some error as the low resolution of the picture means we're dealing with an uncertainty, let's say of +/- 2m or 3m.
But this doesn't mean the total length of 055 is "only" ~175m, because as I mentioned before the bow section is definitely incomplete, and extending it forwards a little, I think it is quite reasonable to think that it would add on another 2m-3m of length at least, if not 5m or more.
So I think the total length of 055 once everything comes together will likely be very close to 180m, either approaching it, near it, or even possibly slightly over it.
One can also measure the beam of the modules as well using the same method, and I end up with a beam of about 20.5m or 20.7m, or somewhere in between.
For a ship ~180m long, and a beam about 20.5m, considering the geometry of the 055 and the upper superstructures (compared to previous generations of ships), at this stage I would throw out that it's full displacement will probably be between 12,500 tons to 13,000 tons, with a standard displacement of slightly over 11,000 tons.
Finally, one can also see that there is an "Extra" module that I indicated in my second picture. I believe we have seen pictures of this extra module by recent pictures taken on the ground, and it has been suggested that it may be for 055 unit 2 (because from the ground we can see it has the same geometry of previous 055 modules for about the amidships section).
At the time I wasn't very sure if that module was for 055 unit 2 or simply another module for 055 unit 1, however now that we have this satellite picture, I do think that module is almost definitely for 055 unit 2, because it almost definitely isn't for 055 unit 1 -- if it is for 055 unit 1 then it would mean the 055 class as a ship would be nearly 200m long! And I don't think anyone believes that is the case!
In either case, I'm sure we will get more pictures on the ground and from space and in the air even, in coming months, but at this stage I think we can finally get a rough estimate of just how long this ship will probably be.
The next questions we should be looking to answer, are just how many VLS 055 has, the geometry of the topside structures, the kinds of radar it uses (especially on the aft mast, if there is one at all), and also of course what will be of the "step platform" that we saw on the mock up and what, if any indication that the white/vs grey paint has or if it is inconsequential.
