I think there probably will be one at some point.
When they come out...they will simply add to what I have listed in the FFG category.
055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread
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I think there probably will be one at some point.
When they come out...they will simply add to what I have listed in the FFG category.
Really? I though he is within the ball park.
There is no need to match the US navy, but at least you need to match the pivot -- 60% of the force. For the next 30 years. US Navy plans to maintain at least 80 large surface combatants -- so to match the US pacific fleet, you need at least 48 ships. The you add Japan and South Korea -- that will account for another 12 ships. So we are talking about 64 ships, minimum. This is without considering the Indian Navy.
And this is only ships. If you compare number of missile tubes, you may need even more.
You need this number of ship to counter offshore balancing -- i.e. you need to be able to fight high sea battle to maintain marine trade routes.
Of course, China can not build this immediately -- but it's feasible to do it in 30 years. China just need to build at least 2 large combatants per year for 30 years. And within 30 years, China will spend about the same amount as US on defense while having an economy twice as large -- so this is not going to break the bank.
(A bit of a late reply)
I've always maintained the idea that 48 DDGs (of 052C/D and 055 displacement) and 48 FFGs (of 054A and 054B/057 displacement) would be the optimal critical mass for the PLAN to reach.
I do agree that the idea of 39 052Ds and 27 055s is way too high. Personally I doubt the PLAN will build many more than 12 052Ds; at the moment I'm of the opinion that mass and serial production of 055 will commence after JN and DL finish their last 052Ds on order in a few years time.
Your entire post however, misses out the importance of frigates in the PLAN order of battle, as well as 056 corvettes.
The availability of frigates means that the PLAN can do with less 052Ds, as 054As and the next generation frigate will take on many of the closer in air defence and ASW roles that 052D will have taken, while being modern and blue water capable.
A large expected number of 056 corvettes (rumours have suggested around 60 once it's all said and done) will mean the PLAN can patrol ECS and SCS during peacetime with corvettes rather than destroyers, and 056s can also do ASW missions in green water and within the first island chain during wartime.
My idea of 48 DDGs, 48 FFGs would be broken down like this:
-8 DDGs and 8 FFGs per fleet will be permanently available at port or patrolling in yellow sea, ECS or SCS. that gives 24 DDGs and 24 FFGs total i.e.: half of the surface fleet, for any western pacific contingencies either in yellow sea, ECS or SCS or beyond, and would operate either as a series of SAGs, multiple CSGs, or a combined task force including anything from carriers to LHDs
-4 DDGs and 4 FFGs per fleet will be under refit or giving their crew landside rest. So that is 12 DDGs and 12 FFGs total (i.e.: one quarter) at anyone time that is unavailable
-4 DDGs and 4 FFGs per fleet that are deployed on blue water operations, so 12 DDGs and FFGs (i.e.: one quarter) at any one time that will be as part of an SAG, CSG, ESG, or just a pair of ships. So that's basically 3 CSGs, ESGs/ARGs, or SAGs worth of surface combatants (assuming 4 DDGs and 4 FFGs per group -- which is actually larger than a typical USN CSG escort group which is made up of 1-2 Tico and 2-3 Burkes), or whatever combination or recombination of ships one wants to deploy depending on the situation. Maybe a single large combined taskgroup of 10 DDGs and 8 FFGs escorting two carriers and two amphibious assault ships in one theatre, with 2 DDGs and 4 FFGs for pirate hunting in another theatre. Or maybe you only want to deploy DDGs and FFGs to launch cruise missile strikes against a 3rd world country that is threatening your interests, so you deploy 4 SAGs of 3 DDGs and FFGs each around it and carriers aren't part of the equation at all.
Overall, what I'm suggesting is a doubling of the current 24 DDG + 24 FFG fleet that we currently see among the PLAN's frontline destroyer flotillas to 48 DDG and 48 FFG of fully modernized and blue water capable frontline combatants.
It is unrealistic to expect the PLAN to fight a multifront war simultaneously, and chances are any conflict will not make the PLAN "limit" itself by only deploying one fleet into battle while leaving the other two at full force in their respective areas.
For instance, an ECS war might cause the PLAN to deploy all of its available East Sea Fleet combatants as well as elements of North and South Sea Fleet, if for example there is little risk of high intensity action in the SCS.
It is also unrealistic to expect any PLAN blue water taskforce to survive a high intensity global conflict against the US until at least 2050 due to the sheer prevalence of USAF and USN bases around the globe which provides overwhelming logistics and air support to any US military elements, which China simply cannot match (and shouldn't seek to match).
Therefore, it is my opinion that any PLAN fleet up to 2050 should seek to achieve two overarching goals:
1: achieve the ability to fight and win an air-naval war in the western pacific against a high tier navy or more (i.e.: JMSDF, or the USN pacific forces), in conjunction with supporting land based air force and 2nd artillery. For navy procurement, this will require a force of modern surface combatants that range from cruisers, destroyers, frigates, corvettes, down to FACs, as well as aircraft carriers with fighters and fixed wing AEW, ASW helicopters, and ships like amphibious assault ships, AORs, submarines, as well as land based navy MPAs, SOSUS, UAVs, subsystems, as well as larger overall supporting logistics
2: achieve the ability to implement permanent blue water operations on a scale that allows the PLAN to defend SLOCs against non state actors and 2nd tier foreign military forces or navies, as well as the ability to project air power, cruise missile strikes, and amphibious assault that will allow limited unilateral or multilateral action against a 2nd tier foreign state or to protect and/or evacuate a meaningfully large number of PRC expats that require assistance. This basically includes all elements of CSGs, ARGs/ESGs, and SAGs depending on what the situation needs (carriers and airwing, amphibious assault ships and airwing, cruisers+destroyers+frigates, submarines, a large number of large AORs, limited foreign basing/logistics support networks, and extensive satellite communication and guidance capabilities).
In fact I would say to achieve goal 2 is in some ways easier than goal 1, because goal 2 doesn't put the PLAN against a high tier navy like USN or JMSDF and it requires less integration with PLAAF and 2nd Arty and requires a smaller number of ship types and supporting aircraft. I.e.: no need for SOSUS, or MPAs, or corvettes for goal 2.
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I think Jeff's numbers sound a lot more reasonable based on the current projections I've read. Also, think about what's required to expand the personnel to man the ships you propose. And also, war talk is active discouraged around here.
I'm not new around here, and speculating about fleet size is directly related to the missions and objectives the PLAN are looking to achieve, I think I've kept it well within reasonable limits.
As for projections: my fleet size is one of the early 2030s. I think JN and DL can definitely produce that number of 055s from now to then, and HD and HP can produce the new generation frigate at a similar pace as well, assuming funding doesn't drastically reduce.
By 2030 I expect all FFGs and DDGs older than 054/A and 052B/C to have been retired, which will free up a lot of crew for new generation ships. Similarly, I expect a lot of personnel reshuffling as various smaller combatants that are crew heavy like 037 boats to be decommissioned, with crew transferred to 056s but also to supplement new large ocean going combatants. And of course, new ships will have much higher automation than older ones. But that said, I also expect the PLAN to have a net expansion of total manpower from now to 2030 as well, not only for a larger FFG and DDG fleet but also to man their carriers and amphibious assault ships and AORs
I'm just saying that if that's your expectation, then you will be a little disappointed based on the current projection I've been gathering. I'm not saying they are outlandish, but much less likely than Jeff's figure. Anything can change and it's 15 years from now, that's why I don't like this kind of discussions. Especially when surface fleet is not a pressing need for China right now.
Well, I agree that speculating beyond 2020 things get very murky, but the original task was to guess what a reasonable critical mass surface fleet of the PLAN could or should be.
My speculation depends on the idea that 052D production would end with the 12th unit, that 055 production has commenced and would replace 052D in serial and mass production, that we will see the 054A successor emerge by 2020 at the latest, and that the PLAN will seek to expand frontline destroyer flotilla numbers in a way that DDG and FFG count remains relatively equal to each other like now.
With the end of 054A production in a few years the PLAN will have 24 054As enough for the frigate component of all their destroyer flotillas as they stand, and I can't see them simply standing still on FFG production for decades or more until 054A needs to be replaced, rather i expect an expansion in frigate numbers with the new generation frigate.
Same same goes for DDGs, when all 18 052C/Ds are in service, there are 6 spots left for 055s if they only want to have a 24 strong modern DDG fleet, and I doubt the PLAN will only produce 6 055s and only produce a new destroyer class in two decades when the first 052Cs need to be replaced.
An expansion in destroyer flotilla number or composition I think is inevitable once they are all fully modernised by the early 2020s, so the question is how big are they going to grow afterwards?
What are the projections you would make based on what you see?
We know that contract for 10 052D (8 at JN and 2 at DL) have been signed, but the plans are for close to 20 052Ds based on the latest rumours. As we've seen with 054A series, PLAN changes procurement plans once they really start to like a certain ship.
After the construction of the first two type 055, the PLA might need to evaluate the ships, and then decide whether further upgrades for subsequent ships are necessary. It took the PLAN some 5-6 years to evaluate the type 052C after two were constructed. Given that the mass production of type 052D (superstructure same as type 052C, so no need for detailed evaluation, not a new class of ship) has begun, I would guess by the time 055s are battle-ready, there would probably be more than 20+ 052Ds produced. I am talking about mid. 2020s. If the 055s use European, Russian, or Ukrainian propulsion, the time may take much longer under domestic engines are ready. By the way, is it confirmed that type 052C ship #3-6 use domestic engines? I kind of know type 052D use domestic gas turbine engine, there are still German components.
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What German components are you talking about in QC-280? What have you read that suggested it?
QC-280 is a copy of a Ukrainian gas turbine that China can now produce itself.
I hope you're not sourcing from kanwa again. Theyre only good for reporting at defender expos, almost everything else they write is rubbish
And I'm not sure why you believe 055 would be dependent on ukraine, uropean or Russian components for propulsion; it has been known for years that QC-280s will power 055 and the whole point of QC-280 to remoce reliance on the Ukrainian power plants
What German components are you talking about in QC-280? What have you read that suggested it?
QC-280 is a copy of a Ukrainian gas turbine that China can now produce itself.
I hope you're not sourcing from kanwa again. Theyre only good for reporting at defender expos, almost everything else they write is rubbish
And I'm not sure why you believe 055 would be dependent on ukraine, uropean or Russian components for propulsion; it has been known for years that QC-280s will power 055 and the whole point of QC-280 to remoce reliance on the Ukrainian power plants
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