055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread

[Jeff Head]

Okay guys...I know I posted about it to try and explain...but give me credit, I also indicated that we cannot go to the "Us vs Them" talk.

We have learned over the years that it leads to contention, bad feeling, chest thumping, and ultimately warnings and suspensions. That's why it is against the Rules.

So, let's let the "Malacca Dilemma" discussion now rests where it is.

Thanks.

 

[Lethe]

So do you see the PLAN combining "quantity" and "quality" like the U.S., especially mass-producing ships far more complex than 052D, like the 055?

Yes. No reason why China can't produce 2x 055s per year from 2020. I don't buy this idea that 055 is some boutique class of vessel just because it is significantly larger than 052D. This is simply what a first-rate 21st century surface combatant looks like.

 

[Jeff Head]

Yes. No reason why China can't produce 2x 055s per year from 2020. I don't buy this idea that 055 is some boutique class of vessel just because it is significantly larger than 052D. This is simply what a first-rate 21st century surface combatant looks like.

They could...but will they need to?

As I say, I expect six to twelve Type 055s. I expect twelve to eighteen Type 052Ds, And clearly the six Type 052Cs are it for that class.

With their probably twenty-four Type 054As...and maybe additional Type 054Bs, and up to 36 very modern DDGs, they are going to have the second largest combatant Navy in the world next to the US Navy, and they are all going to be very modern and capable vessels.

We shall see.

 

[Lethe]

They could...but will they need to?

I think so, yes. I don't see PLAN's (or China's) modernisation/expansion drive slowing for at least another 20 years. Chinese planners will absorb every scrap of funds the national economy can deliver, and clamour for more. Near-parity with USN (which of course does not suggest the same composition) is the very least Chinese planners will be willing to accept given the nation's challenging threat environment.

Add to this that it would be easy to justify the retirement of older vessels (pre-2005) ahead of schedule, if construction rates and circumstances permit, given the technological inferiority of such vessels, the inefficiency of maintaining the few vessels of such types in service, and the enormous strides made since.

As I say, I expect six to twelve Type 055s. I expect twelve to eighteen Type 052Ds, And clearly the six Type 052Cs are it for that class.

The dozen 052Ds presently on the cards should all be in service by 2020. The only reason to order more, in my view, is if there are difficulties bringing 055 online. Absent such difficulties, we should see 1-2 'shakedown' units of 055 by 2020 (i.e. where Kunming and Changsha are now) and production ramping to 2 units per year thereafter.

 

[Jeff Head]

The dozen 052Ds presently on the cards should all be in service by 2020. The only reason to order more, in my view, is if there are difficulties bringing 055 online. Absent such difficulties, we should see 1-2 'shakedown' units of 055 by 2020 (i.e. where Kunming and Changsha are now) and production ramping to 2 units per year thereafter.

I believe the Type 052D will be a longer run than that.

The Type 055 is much larger, more expensive, and not something that you would want to send in all circumstances.

I expect that the Type 055 will be the ZPLAN version of the Ticonderoga...more limited in number and the anchor for defense of very critical task groups.

The Type 052D will be more like the Burkes. Not as many as there are Burkes, but a significantly larger number than the Type 055s.

With large numbers of 0%$A FFGs and 052D DDGs (and their upgrades) the PLAN gets a lot more flexibility and the cost benefit ratio remains very high.

But...time will tell.

 

[Brumby]

They could...but will they need to?

We shall see.

The issue is not simply about production capacity and capability to deliver. China might have grown strong economically but it doesn't have unlimited funding and there are always competing priorities. Force structure planning is grounded on missions requirement and future scenario planning and where China wants to be eventually. In my view, at a minimum it would need one type 055 for each CBG i.e. four. If China plans to mirror that number with its ARG it would need another four. In total it would need at least eight. Beyond that it is anyone's guess but not because its production facility needs to be kept busy.

 

[SpicySichuan]

I believe the Type 052D will be a longer run than that.

The Type 055 is much larger, more expensive, and not something that you would want to send in all circumstances.

I expect that the Type 055 will be the ZPLAN version of the Ticonderoga...more limited in number and the anchor for defense of very critical task groups.

The Type 052D will be more like the Burkes. Not as many as there are Burkes, but a significantly larger number than the Type 055s.

With large numbers of 0%$A FFGs and 052D DDGs (and their upgrades) the PLAN gets a lot more flexibility and the cost benefit ratio remains very high.

But...time will tell.

Given what we know about the 055 model, it is highly possible that a 055 will more expansive than a Burke Flight IIA on a unit basis. If you look at China's GDP per capita along with the current slowdown in economic growth, I doubted China can afford 62 ultra-expensive ships. When we get to 2030s, we might look back and say the type 054A(B) and type 052D(E) had been the PLA's most successful mass-produced warship, and 055...just like what eventually happened to the DDH-1000 Zumwalt class.

 

[SpicySichuan]

Given what we know about the 055 model, it is highly possible that a 055 will more expansive than a Burke Flight IIA on a unit basis. If you look at China's GDP per capita along with the current slowdown in economic growth, I doubted China can afford 62 ultra-expensive ships. When we get to 2030s, we might look back and say the type 054A(B) and type 052D(E) had been the PLA's most successful mass-produced warship, and 055...just like what eventually happened to the DDH-1000 Zumwalt class.

I mean DDG-1000

 

[Lethe]

I believe the Type 052D will be a longer run than that.

The Type 055 is much larger, more expensive, and not something that you would want to send in all circumstances.

I expect that the Type 055 will be the ZPLAN version of the Ticonderoga...more limited in number and the anchor for defense of very critical task groups.

The Type 052D will be more like the Burkes. Not as many as there are Burkes, but a significantly larger number than the Type 055s.

I think you have neatly illustrated the difference in our perceptions. I see 055 as a 21st century Burke, and at a time when China can afford to produce such a vessel in numbers. It is no secret that Burke III is straining against its hull form, I think the 055-Zumwalt axis is a better approximation than Burke III of what a first-rate 21st century surface combatant, designed with ample future growth potential and technology integration in mind, looks like.

Regarding the "second line"/volume functionality of 052D, I see the future frigate (054B/057) in the 5000+ ton class as joining/complementing the 052Ds in fulfilling this.

But...time will tell.

Indeed it will. =)

 

[Lethe]

The issue is not simply about production capacity and capability to deliver. China might have grown strong economically but it doesn't have unlimited funding and there are always competing priorities. Force structure planning is grounded on missions requirement and future scenario planning and where China wants to be eventually.

China is still very Army-centric in line with the historical national security objective of repelling the barbarians. Over the coming decades, as an invasion of China (by anyone) becomes ever more implausible, PLAN should receive an increasing share of available funds, in line with evolving national security requirements directed more towards securing e.g. global trade flows (there's that Malacca Straits argument again), overseas interests, etc.