Here is a thought on the upcoming Type 54B/57/52E with regards to timing/specs.
Because of the recent PLA naval buildup there doesn’t appear to be a critical capability gap at the frigate/destroyer level, whether qualitative or quantitative, which would require them to desperately press into service a new class beyond the current run of 054A and 052D. Of course, the fleet will continue to expand and improve, but the PLA isn’t playing ‘catch-up’ anymore. It can afford to be measured. That being the case, the design and production of 052B/057/052E doesn’t have to be done in a rush.
The PLA is also no doubt cognisant of the frigate renewal cycle for other major peers/competitor’s: the US, Japan, Russia, Korea, India, Australia and the UK (which is supplying designs to Australia in any case). They have all recently started, or are about to start, production of their next generation frigate. Type26, 30DX, Daegu, Talwar and Gorshkov have been known platforms for a few years, and with the USN’s recent FFG(X) selection, the PLA now has a high degree of visibility regarding its peers/competitor’s expected frigate capabilities for the next few decades.
Peer frigate specs and numbers are clearly not the sole driver for the PLA. But, now that they can see what everyone else is doing, and there is no longer a technology gap, they have the luxury of designing a frigate program that can fit anywhere they want on the spectrum. That is a huge advantage, because it means they can select technology, risk, numbers and budget to match where they want to be relative to the others in the frigate/small destroyer category. They can spec a vessel to outgun on a ship to ship basis, or they can be more cost conscious and plan a different route. Either way, that is a strategic advantage when dealing with long lead time platforms like a frigate class.
Therefore, it is possible that the perceived delay we have seen in the selection/production of 54B/57/52E may in some part reflect the fact that the PLA wanted to, very sensibly, wait until all of its key peers/competitors had locked themselves into designs and production…before finalizing its own.
