054/A FFG Thread II

[plawolf]

I don't understand the need for a Type 054B. Why would the PLAN invest into another new FFG design ? The 30 or so Type 054A will be enough to perform what ever duties FFG's has and the rest of the fleet should just be Type 052D's or Type 055's.

Exactly, with co-operative engagement, you don't need every ship in the fleet to have the same top-end radars.

Even if you do put PARs on a future 054B, the smaller size of the arrays and reduced peak power that can be generated by the smaller ship will mean it is unlikely that those PARs will add much to fleet defence not already provided for by 052Ds and 055s.

I think the biggest change the 054B will bring will be IEPS (future-proofing the design for things like next gen directed energy weapons); using new universal CCL VLS; maybe double helo hanger. All of which will likely result in a heavier displacement.

Personally, I would take any one of the above over PARs for an 054B class ship.

 

[Lethe]

054B isn't about adding super duper radars to turn the ship into a miniature 052D/055, but about updating an existing successful design with the latest technologies to ensure that PLAN has a capable and affordable blue water surface combatant going forward, a frigate that can be built in numbers sufficient to fulfil the tasks that PLAN requires of it, most especially including anti-submarine warfare, whether serving as part of a carrier task force, screening amphibs or civilian vessels, or operating alone or with one or two other vessels.

The lack of such a frigate is part of the reason USN is in such dire straits today, with smaller numbers of enormous and expensive Burkes and Ticos called upon to do anything and everything, resulting in extended deployments with little downtime for maintenance, exhausted crews, and ultimately tragedies such as the recent collisions costing the lives of American sailors.

While the number of destroyers in PLAN service will increase going forward, and form an increasing proportion of the fleet (if only because there are more older frigates retiring going forward than older destroyers), PLAN will not repeat USN's mistake of creating a top-heavy fleet with insufficient number of hulls and crews for required taskings.

 

[Iron Man]

Exactly, with co-operative engagement, you don't need every ship in the fleet to have the same top-end radars.

Even if you do put PARs on a future 054B, the smaller size of the arrays and reduced peak power that can be generated by the smaller ship will mean it is unlikely that those PARs will add much to fleet defence not already provided for by 052Ds and 055s.

I think the biggest change the 054B will bring will be IEPS (future-proofing the design for things like next gen directed energy weapons); using new universal CCL VLS; maybe double helo hanger. All of which will likely result in a heavier displacement.

Personally, I would take any one of the above over PARs for an 054B class ship.

CEC isn't about using the largest radars to serve as the eyes and the little ships to serve as the missile trucks. CEC uses multiple radars from multiple ships to build a highly redundant and highly robust picture of the battlespace. An X-band AESA from a notional 054B is a perfect complement to an S-band AESA from a 052C/D or 055, especially at engagement distances of 200km or less where both types of radars will have the range to simultaneously detect and track targets. CEC may also not be fully functional in ECM-heavy environments, especially if certain ships in the fleet are being jammed. It is also distinctly possible that the development for such an X-band AESA is already a sunk cost (due to it possibly sitting on the mast of the 055 currently). IEP is nice and all, but any ship can serve as a test ship for this technology, and if you're actually still testing this technology rather than implementing it outright, putting it on several dozen ships to test the technology is the epitome of recklessness. I would take an X-band AESA paired with a large VLS magazine over IEP any day of the week. It would allow a frigate-sized ship to fill a niche role that the PLAN still currently lacks, i.e. medium range defense against saturation attacks, a role that the 054A cannot adequately fulfill. This role, combined with ASW work that is most efficiently done by a smaller ship and other duties like patrol, convoy escort, etc., makes a 054B a perfect complement to larger ships like the 052D and 055, who are then freed up to concentrate on large ship tasks like fleet air defense, BMD/anti-sat warfare, land attack.

 

[Blitzo]

How many more ships does China need ? The current DDG and FFG count stands at 79. Two Type 053H3 maybe transferred to Bangladesh in the coming years. There are still about 16 ships Type 055 (4), Type 052D (7) and Type 054A (5) either under construction or on sea trial. But there are 19 ships (6 Luda and 13 Jianghu) that are considered obselete.

Well, how many modern destroyers and frigates do you believe would be sufficient for the Chinese Navy, going forwards to say 2030?

Given the way the Chinese Navy's surface combatant forces are structured, with six destroyer flotillas making up the general blue water capable, primary surface combatant forces, with a number of frigate squadrons equipped with smaller and older frigates...

I personally think the Chinese Navy could use anywhere up to some 48 modern aegis type destroyers by 2030, with some 48 modern air defence capable frigates by that time as well (i.e.: say 8 destroyers and 8 frigates per DESFLOT, effectively doubling from the current/legacy 4 destroyer/4 frigate per DESFLOT arrangement of today), and in addition some 30+ older frigates as part of individual frigate squadrons to support 056/As in patrolling regional waters closer to home, fulfilling the same mission they currently have with their 053H, H2, H3 and so on variants today, but instead with 054/As by that time instead.

Of the DESFLOT forces in the late 2020s, I expect:
-the destroyers to be made up ships no older than the first two 052Cs. Or putting it another way, to include 052C, 052D, 055s and 055 variants (and/or possibly a hypothetical 052E variant as well depending on what kind of vision the Navy has for their future frigate force)
-the frigates to be made up of some younger 054A ships, 054Bs, and/or a hypothetical 057 class

The frigate squadrons of the late 2020sin turn would be made up of older 054As, the two 054s, and/or possibly the last few 053H3s that would be on their last legs. T

I hope to see most of the destroyers older than the initial two 052Cs to be either decommissioned, mothballed, sold abroad, or in the process of being so, by the late 2020s. I expect most of the frigates older than the youngest few 053H3s to be retired by that time.



Of course, this is just my own idea for how many surface combatants I think the Chinese Navy could use plucked from thin air and it's not meant to be conclusive, but the bottom line is I think the Chinese Navy could definitely significantly expand their surface forces over the next decade and a bit, including the potential doubling of the Navy's DESFLOT order of battle by 2030 compared to the early 2010s... And in terms of combat capability, it would of course be an increase of many times rather than just doubling.

 

[Jeff Head]

Well, how many modern destroyers and frigates do you believe would be sufficient for the Chinese Navy, going forwards to say 2030?

I hope to see most of the destroyers older than the initial two 052Cs to be either decommissioned, mothballed, sold abroad, or in the process of being so, by the late 2020s. I expect most of the frigates older than the youngest few 053H3s to be retired by that time.

Of course, this is just my own idea for how many surface combatants I think the Chinese Navy could use plucked from thin air and it's not meant to be conclusive, but the bottom line is I think the Chinese Navy could definitely significantly expand their surface forces over the next decade and a bit, including the potential doubling of the Navy's DESFLOT order of battle by 2030 compared to the early 2010s... And in terms of combat capability, it would of course be an increase of many times rather than just doubling.

Well, with the money the PLAN is spending now in the late teens refitting some of these ships, I expect some of them to serve on into the 2030s.

For example. I expect Type 051B which has been refit with VLS and better radars and CIWS to continue to serve into the 2030s. I expect both Type 051Cs to do the same.

They have a very decent AAW fit and ASuW fit too that can still be used for many years.

I expect, if they go ahead and refit all four Sovs the way they have done the first one, that they too will serve into the 2030s.

Finally...I anticipate that the PLAN may refit the Type 052B DDGs, adding VLS and better CIWS and sensors...and if they do, they too will serve into the 2030s.

That's nine DDGs right there that they can still get very decent use out of from AAW to ASuW to ASW help in any number of places.

Perhaps not a part of any CSG, but certaainly a part of any SAG or Amphibious group in terms of escort duties.

We will just have to wait and see.

 

[Lethe]

Whether and to what extent China will seek to retire older vessels ahead of schedule (i.e. at less than 30yrs old) going forward is certainly one of the great unknowns.

However with respect to numbers alone I suspect it doesn't make much difference. That is to say, if older vessels are retired at a faster rate, it will be because newer vessels are coming online at a faster rate to replace them. I recall that Blitzo anticipates just such an acceleration in future to 3-4 destroyers per year, plus frigates etc. In that context, early retirement of pre-052C vessels makes sense.

On the other hand, if future production continues at rates established in recent times, i.e. 2 destroyers and 2 frigates per year, the case for early retirement of older vessels diminishes. My own projections assume just such a rate, even while acknowledging PLAN's growing resources, not only out of a basic conservatism, but in light of the assuredly greater cost of destroyers (i.e. 055s) going forward, and the increasing depth and breadth of demands on PLAN budgets as it seeks to transition to a USN-class navy, i.e. expenditure on submarines, helicopters and ASW, carrier air wings, amphibs, etc. China has a lot of stuff to build these days, and surface combatants will not get as much of the budgetary pie as they have in the past. That said, 2 destroyers and 2 frigates per year would still be more than adequate to generate both a quantitative and qualitative transformation over the medium term, i.e. out to 2035.

 

[Iron Man]

Well, with the money the PLAN is spending now in the late teens refitting some of these ships, I expect some of them to serve on into the 2030s.

For example. I expect Type 051B which has been refit with VLS and better radars and CIWS to continue to serve into the 2030s. I expect both Type 051Cs to do the same.

They have a very decent AAW fit and ASuW fit too that can still be used for many years.

I expect, if they go ahead and refit all four Sovs the way they have done the first one, that they too will serve into the 2030s.

Finally...I anticipate that the PLAN may refit the Type 052B DDGs, adding VLS and better CIWS and sensors...and if they do, they too will serve into the 2030s.

That's nine DDGs right there that they can still get very decent use out of from AAW to ASuW to ASW help in any number of places.

Perhaps not a part of any CSG, but certaainly a part of any SAG or Amphibious group in terms of escort duties.

We will just have to wait and see.

Even with the refit the 051B should be retired by the late 2020s given there is really no good reason to keep this ship around for longer than 30 years. Same with the first two Sovs. OTOH the latter two Sovs, the two 052Bs, and the two 051Cs will all stick around till the early to mid 2030s IMO, though I definitely wouldn't mind seeing them retired early with the other ships. The Ludas, Jianghus and even Jiangweis should have been retired years ago but they are still putzing around for no good reason these days. It's not like in a modern shooting war these ships are going to have any real usefulness. They would more likely be liabilities IMO, unless of course the PLAN wants to use them as cannon fodder during a conflict. Thankfully I think they will be all or almost all gone by the end of this decade.

 

[Jeff Head]

@Lethe @Iron Man

My point is simple. The PLAN is voting with their pocket book and shown its intent with the sov and the Type 051B.

They have done an expensive refit to that 1st SOV...they did not do this to retire her in the next five to eight years.

Especially of we see them refitting the other three Sovs, I expect all the Sovs will stay around into the 30s. OTOH, if we see them not refitting the others, then they may well have decided it was not worth it.

If they do refit the others, then I expect them to do a similar refit to the Type 052Bs and keep them around too.

...and all six of those, with VLS, with stronger ASuW, and newer sensors would be valuable in any SG and any other show the flag or escort duties outside of a CSG.

I believe the same holds true for the Type 051B (which has also recently been refit) and the two Type 051C vessels.

Again, all three of those have very decent anti-air even into the early 2030s and would make, like the others I spoke of, decent vessels for any mission outside of CSG coveverage...and help ensure, depending on how many carriers are built, that there are always more than enough Type 052Ds and Type 055s to allow for maximum protection to five or six carriers...or however many are built tino that time frame.

Nine DDGs to handle lower intensity, or SAG, or show the flag, or LPD range AMphib escorts would just give the PLAN that much more flexibility and the PLAN has shown over the years a propensity to get a lot more years out of their vessels than many others.

As far as the carrier go, I expect 4-5 to be in the water and through commissioning by 2030. That is:

2 x Liaoning Class (or really, Kuznetsov class)
2 x Type 002 CATOBAR class

...and maybe a 3rd CATOBAR or the first Type 003 larger/nuclear CATOBAR.

My own guess goes like this...we have the CV-16 Liaoning operational now. We shall see the CV-17 (or whatever) operational by 2020 I believe. We shall see the first CATOBAR carrier launched in the 2020 time frame and operational by 2023...then see others follow every four years or so, the 4th by 2027, and the fifth by 2031.

 

[Lethe]

I think it is entirely possible that the Sovs, 052Bs and 051Cs will serve into the early 2030s, although certainly the earliest pair of Sovs would be on the cusp of retirement. While I expect the age of PLAN's oldest combatants -- currently at 35 years -- to decrease going forward, I see little reason to anticipate a rapid "clearing of the cobwebs".

One factor that has not been actively discussed is the efficiencies that PLAN may see in retiring, for example, all steam-powered combatants, or the single-unit 051B, and how such considerations may shape the schedule going forward, e.g. potentially retiring the single 051B ahead of the the older units in the six-ship Sov/052B cluster.

Of course there are other potential fates for vessels such as the 051B. They could be transferred to foreign navies, converted to fire support platforms, or used as experimental platforms. I doubt they will be used as training ships as they are too large and expensive to run

 

[Totoro]

Has PLAN retired any/many of its previous ships early? Doesn't look like it to me. Modernization of certain 20 year old ships also point towards them serving for a decade more at least. Otherwise, why invest in modernization?

I'd say PLAN is definitely increasing its numbers. Of course, at a certain point it will slow down with adding new frigates/destroyers/corvettes. We've already seen it happen with 054a, as the building volumes have shrunk.

There is only so much money to go around and when PLAN is at the same time adding more 071, allegedly building LHD ships and adding more carriers - of course it can't keep churning out more frigates/destroyers at the same time. Just adding another carrier costs as much as adding several destroyer sized ships (possibly more when crew salaries are included)

What's the final count? Who's to know. But I don't believe we've yet seen the plateau with frigates/destroyers where the new builds are procured at same pace as old ships are retired (could be another decade for that) and it may be decades until we see the similar plateau with new carriers.