054/A FFG Thread II
- Thread starter tphuang
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FarkTypeSoldier
Junior Member
Launch of Type 054A FFG no: 576 "Huang Shi"
Have a great week end...
Have a great week end...
... Well, we need to factor in a lack AORs (of which PLAN only have 7 blue water capable ones), and it will also be a few years until the current swell of 054As and 052C/Ds enter service.
Once all 20 054As and all 052Cs, and the first batch of 4 052Ds are in service, I'd feel a little more confident in claiming it the second "biggest" navy in the world, equal to JMSDF.
It'll only be around 2020, when the first indigenous carrier is in service, that I'd confidently call PLAN the second biggest. By then we should have seen a couple of 055s in service, along with more 052Ds, 054A or 054Bs, hopefully an LHA and LPD or two, along with the next generation large AOR.
Going forward to 2015, JMSDF especially is still a formidable navy, second behind USN, with its 6 9000 ton aegis destroyers and multiple smaller VLS destroyers that sit between the capability of 054A and 052D.
Once all 20 054As and all 052Cs, and the first batch of 4 052Ds are in service, I'd feel a little more confident in claiming it the second "biggest" navy in the world, equal to JMSDF.
It'll only be around 2020, when the first indigenous carrier is in service, that I'd confidently call PLAN the second biggest. By then we should have seen a couple of 055s in service, along with more 052Ds, 054A or 054Bs, hopefully an LHA and LPD or two, along with the next generation large AOR.
Going forward to 2015, JMSDF especially is still a formidable navy, second behind USN, with its 6 9000 ton aegis destroyers and multiple smaller VLS destroyers that sit between the capability of 054A and 052D.
Quantitatively? In terms of what could be said to be modern ships by international standards (051C, 052/B/CD, 054/A and 056) PLAN hull count is still outnumbered by JMSDF. Tonnage discrepancy with JMSDF is even bigger, especially if Liaoning is not included. Qualitatively, PLAN is undemonstrated, to say nothing of unproven, and question mark only gets bigger of quality of personnel, leadership and support is also included in the evaluation.
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How many modern surface combatants Japan navy has? 24, 37, 43?
I agree with most of what you said.
But now would be a good time to assess the surface forces of JMSDF and PLAN respectively, I think.
JMSDF:
DDH/LHA:
Hyuga class, 20,000 tons: 2
Shirane class, 7,500 tons: 2
Izumo class, 27,000 tons: (1 just launched, service entry projected 2015, + 1 planned for service ~2018. Will only include the first boat for this comparison, as I'm forecasting out only to 2015)
Landing ships:
Osumi class, 14,000 tons(?): 3
Large PAR equipped DDGs:
Atago class, 9,500 tons: 2 (possibly + 2 more planned, but wont' be included in this comparison as the first of the new batch are only scheduled to enter service by 2018)
Kongo class, 9,000 tons: 4
Akizuki class, 6,800 tons: 2 (+ 2 more, possibly the basis of a new class post 2014)
Other DDGs:
Takanami class, 6,300 tons: 5
Murasame class, 6,100 tons: 9
Asagiri class, 4,900 tons: 8
Hatsayuki class, 4,000 tons: 5
Abukuma class, 2,500 tons: 6
That's 376,000 tons worth of surface combatant
(Declining to include AORs, smaller patrol boats, and not including the potential for two more atagos, not including the second izumo class, but do include the 3rd and 4th akizuki boats. Basically I'm only counting boats that are in service, launched, or soon to be launched)
Comparing it with PLAN:
Aircraft carrier:
Liaoning, 65,000 tons: 1 (be a few years until it's got a full complement, but this comparison stretches to 2015, which I think is a fair forecast date)
LPDs:
071 class, ~25,000 tons (or 20k tons?): 3 (there is some dispute as to just how much 071 displaces, as the 25k ton number was taken from a PLAN sailor, posted over on CDF. Considering 071's dimensions and how much we know it can carry, I think that displacement isn't unreasonable. Also a caveat, that 071 units two and three may be heavier than 071 unit one, as the PLAN's sailor's anecdote was stationed aboard 999. But for the purposes of this comparison I'll be using 25,000)
"Large" LSTs:
072A/III/II class, 4,800 tons: 24
072 class, 4,200 tons: 3
"Large"/blue water capable DDGs:
052C class, ~7,000 tons: 3 (+3 more, launched/sea trials)
052D class, ~7,500 tons: (1 sea trial, 2 launched, 1 soon to be launched)
052B class, ~6,500 tons: 2
Sovremenny class, ~8,000 tons: 4
051C class, ~7,000 tons: 2
051B class, 6,100 tons: 1
052 class, 4,800 tons: 2
"B team"/coastal DDGs:
051 class, 3,700 tons: 7-8 (due to be retired, probably replaced with 054As and 052Ds in their flotillas in coming years)
Blue water capable FFGs:
054A class, 4000+ tons: 15 (+5 in various stages of sea trials, fitting out, or launch. Not a stretch to think that 20 will be in service by 2015)
054 class, ~4000 tons: 2
"B team"/coastal FFGs:
053H2/H3 class, 2,300-2,500 tons: ~14?
053 class, 2,000 tons: ~14? (being phased out)
Corvettes:
056 class, 1,400 tons: 8 (+ who knows how many more. Let's say 20 by 2015? Fair? Yes/no?)
Modern missile boats:
022 class, 220 tons: ~80 (should they be included in such a comparison? JMSDF obviously have no such comparable boats in inventory, and 022s have relatively short range, but are not a threat to be dismissed)
Not included are minesweepers, older missile boats and AORs.
Not including 056 class, 051 class, 053 class, and 022 class I come up with a total displacement of about 503,000 tons (assuming 4 052Ds, 20 054As in service by 2015, and that 071 class is 25,000 tons rather than 20,000).
Including 056, 051, 053 and 022, add on another 133,000 tons (however that number is likely to be lower as some 054As, 052Ds will be replacing older ships too).
Of course, total displacement doesn't compare the qualitative performance of the ships on each side, and JMSDF do not have as many older, shorter range frigates and destroyers as PLAN. But in terms of total tonnage of surface combatants and landing ships of both sides, by 2015ish, I think PLAN will be convincingly greater, but its power projection capability in terms of the number of medium/long endurance blue water capable ships will be about JMSDF's total
I.e.:
JMSDF: combining their "PAR equipped DDG" with "large DDG" sections: ~222,000 tons
PLAN: combining the "large DDG" and "blue water capable FFG" sections: ~223,000 tons
In terms of carrier + amphibious/power projection assets, the two are on somewhat equal footing displacement wise, although PLAN will be more oriented for amphibious assault and CAP/strike due to the combination of 071 (and 072), and liaoning, while JMSDF is also oriented for ASW and amphibious assault via helicopters (possibly CAP and strike if they ever decide to board F-35Bs, but this looks unlikely circa 2015):
JMSDF: combining hyuga, shirane, osumi, and 1 izumo: 124,000 tons
PLAN: combining 071 and liaoning: 140,000 tons (if we include the various 072 derivatives, we get ~268,000 tons)
So I'm actually quite surprised that PLAN's overall displacement, "blue water" capable displacement, and power projection displacement, are all either convincingly larger than JMSDF, or similarly sized to it, if we look forward to 2015.
Clearly the biggest contributors for PLAN are the liaoning, the 3 071s, and also the massive surge in 054As we've seen, and the forthcoming entry of 052C/Ds into service.
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Edit:
It was probably a mistake not to include AORs considering how important they are to blue water power projection, so here they are:
JMSDF:
Mashu class, 25,000 tons: 2
Towada class, 15,000 tons: 2
Total: 80,000 tons
PLAN:
903/A class, 23,000 tons: 4
Fuqing class, 21,000 tons: 2
953 class, 37,000 tons: 1
Total: 171,000 tons
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MwRYum
Major
Hardly, the modern Japanese Navy (we all know the so-called "JMSDF" has more than enough when comes to "self defense", it can go on offensive if there's a political will behind it, though for how long and how far is a whole different matter) is still the undisputed second biggest in all counts, have everything the PLAN would envy sans nukes or cruise missiles, trained by the biggest superpower the US of A and have far more blue water operation experience (if not heritage, the modern Japanese Navy does harks back to its IJN root).
Whereas the PLAN is playing a massive - if not daunting - catchup in size, scope and scale, which only truly began in the late 90s, everything before that is just nibbling here and there. A blue water navy requires a massive mindset shift from top to bottom, not just in terms of hardware, as of now the PLAN still have a large chunk of its old self lingers, though it can't be helped because its role still a defensive one with primary concerns confines to the 1st island chain due to various realistic causes. Then there's the training...unlike the IJN and modern Japanese Navy always found mentor in the biggest naval superpower (the Royal Navy indeed schooled the IJN back in the day, and the USN moulded the "JMSDF" almost in all aspects), the PLAN was, and still is, for the majority of its existence forced to be self-taught...the danger of such realities is that how much of those theories can survive the baptism of real war.
A naval power don't just talk in just number and tonnage alone, what really matters is in what form those size and tonnage translate into, plus what level of technology those size and tonnage has; and in equal measure, the political will to undertake such long-term investment as well as the bankroll that funds it...that's the true language of naval power.
For China, there might not be the political will into it if not "thanks" to the "regular whipping" by Uncle Sam, first came in the form of 4 JDAM bunker busters, then the EP-3 incident (one fuelled the resolve to rejuvenate the Chinese military-industrial complex from its deathbed, the other fuelled the urgency to catchup); and in the post-911 world the US more or less neglected China, giving it the chance to amass the needed wealth to continue its funding. So fundamentally, all the things we see since the last 5 years are what the investments made as far back in the 1999 begins to bear fruit; however, saying the PLAN is going to bump its place into the second largest - even as late as 2020 - is being unrealistic.
Think about it: even the PLAN as a whole is larger than that of the Japanese Navy, in real confrontation against Japan it'd be up to the North Sea Fleet to take up the burden, and to make things worse the lion share of the North Sea Fleet is geographically trapped inside the Bohai aka "the duck pond". The South Sea Fleet is to ensure no funny business from the South China Sea, with East Sea Fleet serves as reserves (that is, if Taiwan choose to stay out of it), and that's the ideal situation, which is totally unrealistic because, again, disregard US involvement...
Therefore, the reality the PLAN face is that it needs to face the combined might of at least the US 7th Fleet and the Japanese Navy (if you don't count in the RoKN), thus the PLAN has to deal with such quantitative and qualitative challenge. It'll never be just the Japanese Navy the PLAN try to catch up with, if that's the long term goal of the PLAN...that's serious arms race and might cripple China's economy if managed incorrectly.
While I agree that PLAN will not be as blue water experienced as JMSDF, you have to admit they are comparable in terms of blue water capable vessel tonnage and power projection vessels, with PLAN superior in overall displacement.
So what foxmulder said isn't exactly untrue.
Bringing in USN pacific fleet and ROKN is all academic, and it'll be many decades (if ever) until PLAN has a navy that displaces an amount equal to all three combined.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
When PLAN puts her first true CV to sea will JMSDF follow suit? airpower especially in the form of naval strike fighters exponentially increases the capability and qualitative advantage of whichever navy that posesses it. I would say that PLAN will be of equal parity or even exceed JMSDF in terms of capability when they have it (assuming JMSDF has no CV). By then Liaoning would've been operational for a few years and maybe another STOBAR so we're talking about 200K tons in flattops and over 100 modern strike fighters.
At this point in time and outside of the USN, PLAN is the only Navy in the Pacific rim that I am aware of that is planning on building CATOBARs not to mention CVNs.
IMHO a 80K ton CATOBAR with 48 or more strike fighters is not only deadlier but has far more capabilities than 80K combination of frigates, destroyers etc. A strike fighter can rearm but a missile once launch is gone not to mention the flexibility an aircraft can provide that no cruise missile can match no matter how advance or capable. Of course in the real world no carrier will ever travel alone especially in times of war however looking strictly form a 'capability' standpoint the carrier has the edge.
JMSDF will obviously have the edge in terms of training, preparedness and experience however those things are subjective and difficult to gauge.
At this point in time and outside of the USN, PLAN is the only Navy in the Pacific rim that I am aware of that is planning on building CATOBARs not to mention CVNs.
IMHO a 80K ton CATOBAR with 48 or more strike fighters is not only deadlier but has far more capabilities than 80K combination of frigates, destroyers etc. A strike fighter can rearm but a missile once launch is gone not to mention the flexibility an aircraft can provide that no cruise missile can match no matter how advance or capable. Of course in the real world no carrier will ever travel alone especially in times of war however looking strictly form a 'capability' standpoint the carrier has the edge.
JMSDF will obviously have the edge in terms of training, preparedness and experience however those things are subjective and difficult to gauge.