Transfer the Sovs to NSF? Out of the three, NSF seems to be the least effective because its hemmed in but also can utilize more land based assets than the other two fleets.So that would seem to provide a fit for second tier ships.
Maybe, but NSF also will end up with four 052Ds, in addition to two recently refitted 052s and two 051Cs. The 052s and 051Cs obviously aren't as capable as 052C or 052D but they're still recent vessels, meaning they're likely to serve for quite a decade or more yet... so the problem still arises: once all the old 051s in PLAN are replaced by 052Ds, what will happen to the ships commissioned between 1990s and mid 2000s (AKA pre 170) in terms of overall fleet status?
Because even the oldest of those ships are still quite young.
Either PLAN's DDG fleet grows in number or it remains steady at ~24. If it grows, then once the current remaining six or so 051s are replaced by 6 052Ds, from 052D hull onwards is when we'll start to see an increase in PLAN DDG number.
I doubt the 052s will be retired any earlier than 2025, so prior to 2025 we'll likely see serial production and commissioning of 055 to be well and underway. Along with the 12 052Ds expected, I think we may end up seeing some ~36 strong DDG fleet in PLAN by 2025. Current DDG strength is around 24, with six 051s to be replaced by six 052Ds, and six additional 052Ds meaning once 052D production is finished, total PLAN DDG strength will be ~30. But of course there's the 055 matter to contend with. By 2025 055 production should have been well underway at both JN and DL for a number of years assuming JN production of hull 1 has already started now as rumoured, so I project six 055s commissioned by 2025
OTOH, DDG fleet number could remain somewhat steady if PLAN retires ships like 052, 051B, and even 051Cs, 052Bs and Sovs early... but I very much doubt that will happen. They might convert some of them like 051B to a command ship or a non front line combatant (say a test ship of some sort) but that's the most of it imo.
