Re: PLAN Type 052 Class Destroyer
Expounding on the subject of 052D production a little, I want to talk about the expansion of the PLAN's surface fleet.
Looking at the PLAN at the end of the 20th century, it was a pretty sorry force, with barely a modern destroyer or frigate in its ranks, but it fielded large numbers of them.
From 2000 to 2010, we obviously saw a significant expansion in the navy's inventory of modern vessels, both in the form of destroyers but more in particular, in frigates through the mass production of 054A. By itself, the addition of four sovremennys, in addition to pairs of 052B, 051C, and most importantly, 052C, provided a quantum leap beyond the pre 2000 PLA Navy, vaulting it to become one of the region's most competitive surface combatant forces in the western pacific navies. Not the best, but certainly enough for everyone to take notice.
We can call 2000 to 2010 the "first major expansion" of PLAN capability, defined by the addition of a large number of reliable blue water ocean going vessels and internationally competitive capabilities, with a few of them such as 052C being truly top end (even though 052C's capabilities were only inducted in limited numbers).
The first major expansion was only ten years long, if we were to draw a line, and I consider the current "second major expansion" to be the re establishment of JNCX and the production of 052Cs second batch. Obviously as we've seen, 052C production ceased after six boats, but they transitioned without a hitch to 052D, and if all signs are noted, it seems like 052D production may far outstrip 052C, and occur in two shipyards rather than one.
The big kahuna of a question is how many new ships will the PLAN buy? As I've said in previous posts, I think looking to flotillas is incorrect. Flotillas can be reorganized or expanded according to the PLAN's developing needs, old ships can be retired faster or quicker as well.
I have no answer to the question which doesn't rely on faulty logic that could turn both ways. But I will definitively say we should keep an open mind.
Yes, 8 052Ds on top of what the PLAN existing have seems like a lot, and would make the vast majority of its destroyers modern and highly capable, vaulting its surface combatant force onto the top of the region's navies sans USN.
But that still leaves a handful of older, smaller, less capable destroyers, and more importantly, it gives the PLAN "only" 14 PAR equipped DDGs for escort missions.
Current flotilla structure is 4 DDGs and 4 FFGs, with 6 flotillas, so 24 DDGs and 24 FFGs. In the long term, is that force large enough for the PLAN's future ambitions? They're looking to build multiple carriers and large amphibious vessels and will need the ships to escort them and also some left over for other missions. So clearly eventually they're going to get 24 PAR equipped destroyers made up of 052C, 052D and 055, but that is the minimum.
The query which follows, is how quickly they are going to induct that number, and more importantly, will they want more?
We've already seen that JNCX can launch one 052D every seven or so months with one building hall alone, so that means about two destroyers a year launch rate. When DL gets in the game they'll aim for a similar rate as well, but let's say for the moment, 3 052Ds per year out of JNCX and DL to be conservative.
It won't take that long for JNCX and DL to pump out enough 052Ds to fill all those 24 spots, and they may build more ships even faster once JNCX begins 055 from building hall 1.
The PLAN have shown a preference to prepare the rest of their escorts before inducting the centrepieces of their fleet, such as Liaoning, and also earlier for 071 (personally I think it's wiser that way). If we do expect a number of carriers and LHAs and more LPDs, then we should see a similar pattern of standing up more modern surface combatants well before those power projection vessels enter service.
Basically, what I'm saying is we should keep an open mind for how high, and just as important how quickly 052D and 055 (and maybe next generation frigate) numbers may accumulate in coming years.
The PLAN have the capacity to build these ships quickly, and in a few years we'll be seeing pairs or even trios of 052Ds entering service every year like 054As. The PLAN also have the resources, and the manpower to operate a large number of surface combatants -- certainly more than the ROKN or JMSDF -- and they also have the global, large scale missions requiring a larger number of ships too, which is just as important as having the industry.
The PLAN are years from hitting their industry and mission mandated "ceiling," and if nothing unforeseen happens with the economy, we'll probably see their critical mass level out around 2030-2040. Ultimately I wouldn't be surprised if the PLAN end up with a frontline surface combatant fleet of 30-40 modern destroyers (052C/052D/055/052D successor) and a similar number of modern frigates (054A/054A successor).
Take home message: don't discount more ship numbers and don't use existing flotilla structures as a stencil.
