00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

[Cloud_Nine_]

Immediate needs for more mature and reliable capabilities might mean PLAN would move away from previously planned developments. Think extra 052Ds and 054As ordered. Hence I wouldn't be surprised if PLAN would build the next 1~2 or even 3 carriers as conventional for a robust fighting force during the most intensive era of Sino-American strategic competition.

 

[Blitzo]

Firstly, I think we could look back at the original aircraft carrier procurement plans that the PLAN has set up in 2004, i.e. Project 048 (048工程).

The project entails the following, firstly in Mandarin:
第一步，用10年建造2艘中型航母；
第二步，再用10年建造2艘大型航母；
第三步，视情况发展大型核动力航母。

Translated:
Step #1 - Use 10 years to build 2 medium-sized carriers;
Step #2 - Use another 10 years to build 2 large-sized carriers; and
Step #3 - Depending on the situation, develop nuclear-powered supercarriers.

As of now, China is at 3/10th the way for Step #2.

For Step #1, China has successfully accomplised it with the Liaoning and Shandong, both medium-sized carriers, commissioned within the 2010s.

For Step #2, China is still well underway, with a large-sized carrier i.e. Fujian currently fitting out at Jiangnan. With 7 years left before the end of the 2020s, it is entirely possible for China to build and commission at least one more large-sized carrier to fulfill the requirement of Step #2 for Project 048.

Next, there is also another source which could be indicative of how many aircraft carriers does China plan to procure in the near future - The Type 901 fast combat support ship. Note the list below:
View attachment 104682

1st 901 - Hulunhu, launched in December 2015 and commissioned in September 2017, now serving in the North Sea Fleet as part of Liaoning's CSG.
2nd 901 - Chaganhu, launched in June 2017 and commissioned in February 2019, now serving in the South Sea Fleet as part of Shandong's CSG.
3rd 901 - Poyanghu, launched sometime in 2021, expected to commission sometime in 2023 and would serve in the North Sea Fleet. I expect this ship would be attached to Fujian's CSG once she has been commissioned.

For Hulunhu, we can ignore it.

For Chaganhu, however, the ship was commissioned later that same year as Shandong. From this, I think there is a possibility in which the time of commissioning for these 901s could have been arranged such that they would be as close to - the time of commissioning of the carrier that the 901 is supposed to be attached to - as possible.

Because of this, should Poyanghu be commissioned this year, then I believe Fujian was originally planned for commissioning in 2023 as well. The mismatch of the commissioning time between Poyanghu and Fujian could have been a direct result from the construction of Fujian being paused for around 1 year in order for the redesign of the ship (i.e. switching out the steam catapults with EMALS catapults) to take place.

Then we have:
4th 901 - Hongzehu, currently under construction and is expected to launch sometime in 2024, to commission sometime in 2026, and would serve in the South Sea Fleet.

So I think we can confidently say that China definitely is going to pursue the 4th carrier (CV-19) within this decade, and the carrier is most likely still a conventionally-powered one. With that, Step #2 of the Project 048 would have been accomplished.

But what comes after is more interesting:
5th 901 - Riyuetanhu, currently planned and is expected to launch sometime in 2025, to commission sometime in 2027, and would serve in the North Sea Fleet.

What that surprises me is 1. The mention of the 5th unit of the 901-class; 2. The using of the name of a lake in Taiwan Province; and 3. The expected time of launch and commissioning for the ship itself.

I'm unsure of the credibility of the information presented about this Riyuetan fast combat support ship, mainly because I have no idea when or where did that came from.

But if the information on the Riyuetan can be relied upon (perhaps coming from some sort of leak on the Chinese internet before censorship did its thing), then the 5th carrier (CV-20) technically (a BIG) might be built (and (a HUGE) maybe commissioned into the PLAN) before the end of this decade. But of course, this also heavily depends on whether China's marine nuclear propulsion has become mature enough for usage on aircraft carriers first, as per stipulated by Step #3 of Project 048, i.e. Develop nuclear-powered supercarriers based on present situations. However, if the PLAN is not confident enough to pursue a nuclear-powered carrier after Step #2 is completed, then CV-20 will be completed only in the 2030s.

Despite this, I think that CV-20 be an experimental nuclear-powered supercarrier, and that only one ship would be built. In some ways, CV-20 would be similar to its American counterpart, CV-65 Enterprise. Perhaps CV-20 could even have a conventional-nuclear mixed propulsion system instead of a fully nuclear one.

After that, I think China would move onto serial construction of the next class of nuclear-powered supercarriers ONLY from the next decade onwards (i.e. 2030s), i.e. Step #3.

Before I end, I would like to mention that my statements WRT Hongzehu, Riyuetanhu, CV-19 and CV-20 are just assumptions and estimates, based on publically available information and my own brainstorming. If there is any inaccuracies and mistakes, I do apologize for them.

I think you are making a few too many second and third degree inferences based on assuming past rumours are all still relevant.

The fact is right now as of January 2023, we have no good idea what the PLAN's medium and term (5-10 years) goals and timeline are for its carriers.

There are no credible rumours as to when the next carrier will start steel cutting, no credible rumours as to when it will enter construction, and we do not even confidently know if the next carrier will be conventional or nuclear.


With that much deficit of information, it is much more important and responsible for us to acknowledge "we don't know".

I don't think making our own organically surmised predictions independent of credible rumours actually helps.



(Additionally, we have yet to get pictures of additional 901 AOEs being built, as of yet.
For surface ships, I would not assume them to be a closed case until we see their modules with accompanied credible rumours confirming their identity)

 

[Cloud_Nine_]

I think you are making a few too many second and third degree inferences based on assuming past rumours are all still relevant.

The fact is right now as of January 2023, we have no good idea what the PLAN's medium and term (5-10 years) goals and timeline are for its carriers.

There are no credible rumours as to when the next carrier will start steel cutting, no credible rumours as to when it will enter construction, and we do not even confidently know if the next carrier will be conventional or nuclear.


With that much deficit of information, it is much more important and responsible for us to acknowledge "we don't know".





Additionally, we have yet to get pictures of additional 901 AOEs being built, as of yet.
For surface ships, I would not assume them to be a closed case until we see their modules with

The lack of information on type 901s bewilders me. I would think that these are some of the most important vessels to pay attention to. Even if no further ships are being worked on there's little information on the third vessel. I couldn't even find when she was launched (assuming she was since we already saw her sections in drydock back in 2018).

 

[Blitzo]

The lack of information on type 901s bewilders me. I would think that these are some of the most important vessels to pay attention to. Even if no further ships are being worked on there's little information on the third vessel. I couldn't even find when she was launched (assuming she was since we already saw her sections in drydock back in 2018).

Yes, that's why I treat that particular Chinese language Wikipedia page with caution.

I am not even sure if a third 901 AOE as it claims even exists, let alone having been launched in 2021. If it was real, I would be very surprised that we could somehow miss it over the last year or more.

 

[SAC]

Back in June, I did a briefing that highlighted a number of intelligence gaps in terms of what Carrier 004 might look like, and when we might see it. Among these gaps were:

1. evidence of additional Type 901 Underway Replenishment Ships
2. evidence of upgrades to Dalian shipyard
3. evidence of large naval nuclear reactors being built
4. evidence of new construction blocks at Jiangnan shipyard

I haven't seen anything credible since that addresses any of these intelligence gaps. As a result, we can't say with any certainty when 004 will be delivered, or what it will look like.

 

[YISOW]

Back in June, I did a briefing that highlighted a number of intelligence gaps in terms of what Carrier 004 might look like, and when we might see it. Among these gaps were:

1. evidence of additional Type 901 Underway Replenishment Ships
2. evidence of upgrades to Dalian shipyard
3. evidence of large naval nuclear reactors being built
4. evidence of new construction blocks at Jiangnan shipyard

I haven't seen anything credible since that addresses any of these intelligence gaps. As a result, we can't say with any certainty when 004 will be delivered, or what it will look like.

Well in the long run. Dalian and Jiangnan will build alternately.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I think you are making a few too many second and third degree inferences based on assuming past rumours are all still relevant.

The fact is right now as of January 2023, we have no good idea what the PLAN's medium and term (5-10 years) goals and timeline are for its carriers.

There are no credible rumours as to when the next carrier will start steel cutting, no credible rumours as to when it will enter construction, and we do not even confidently know if the next carrier will be conventional or nuclear.


With that much deficit of information, it is much more important and responsible for us to acknowledge "we don't know".

I don't think making our own organically surmised predictions independent of credible rumours actually helps.



(Additionally, we have yet to get pictures of additional 901 AOEs being built, as of yet.
For surface ships, I would not assume them to be a closed case until we see their modules with accompanied credible rumours confirming their identity)

The lack of information on type 901s bewilders me. I would think that these are some of the most important vessels to pay attention to. Even if no further ships are being worked on there's little information on the third vessel. I couldn't even find when she was launched (assuming she was since we already saw her sections in drydock back in 2018).

Back in June, I did a briefing that highlighted a number of intelligence gaps in terms of what Carrier 004 might look like, and when we might see it. Among these gaps were:

1. evidence of additional Type 901 Underway Replenishment Ships
2. evidence of upgrades to Dalian shipyard
3. evidence of large naval nuclear reactors being built
4. evidence of new construction blocks at Jiangnan shipyard

I haven't seen anything credible since that addresses any of these intelligence gaps. As a result, we can't say with any certainty when 004 will be delivered, or what it will look like.

I think my eagerness to talk more about future Chinese carrier procurement has been made in a rush, and resulted in a lot of mistakes and false assumptions. I do apologize for the matter.

 

[FrogLover88]

Here's some unclass TACTRAGRUPAC graphics for easy comprehension

TACTRAGRUPAC???

lemme Google that:


These acronyms FFS…

 

[charles18]

The lack of information on type 901s bewilders me. I would think that these are some of the most important vessels to pay attention to. Even if no further ships are being worked on there's little information on the third vessel. I couldn't even find when she was launched (assuming she was since we already saw her sections in drydock back in 2018).

Honestly I'm surprised at how few type 901 ships there are. It's not just carriers that need replenishment, destroyers and frigates need them too. The US navy has 32 underway replenishment ships each weighing about 45,000 tons:
16 - oilers
14 - dry cargo
2 - fast combat support

yet the PLA-navy has only 2 or 3? Type 901 replenishment ships that fall within the 45,000 ton category.
I believe there is "very little" relationship between how many Type 901 ships and how many carriers that will be commissioned.
The only assumption I'm willing to make is there must be at least 1 Type 901 ship for every 1 carrier. Notice the key phrase here is "at least 1", there is no reason why it cannot be more.

 

[nelBi]

Honestly I'm surprised at how few type 901 ships there are. It's not just carriers that need replenishment, destroyers and frigates need them too. The US navy has 32 underway replenishment ships each weighing about 45,000 tons:
16 - oilers
14 - dry cargo
2 - fast combat support

yet the PLA-navy has only 2 or 3? Type 901 replenishment ships that fall within the 45,000 ton category.
I believe there is "very little" relationship between how many Type 901 ships and how many carriers that will be commissioned.
The only assumption I'm willing to make is there must be at least 1 Type 901 ship for every 1 carrier. Notice the key phrase here is "at least 1", there is no reason why it cannot be more.

The US Navy equivalent of the 901, Supply class also only has two ships commissioned. Four were built but high costs to operate have forced the US Navy to retire them early. The PLAN also has 8 active Type 903/903A's.