00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
(If it has not been mentioned) A few days ago there was a pic of a model of project 20. Judging from the vent (or lack of) it should be nuclear powered. I can't remember where I saw it.

EDIT: here:
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So if this article is believable, CV20 will be nuclear powered and built at Dalian. We don't know if CV19 will be nuclear, or where it will be built, just that it has apparently started.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Why are we taking this article as if it is particularly credible or that it should change the existing base of understanding?

At present we do not know when the next carrier will emerge, who will build it. The only thing we do have is that the next carrier after CV-18 when it arrives, might be nuclear (i.e. no additional conventional carrier after CV-18), but even that is tentative.

Does this article have anything that means we should treat it as worthwhile of changing our base of understanding?
 

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
Why are we taking this article as if it is particularly credible or that it should change the existing base of understanding?

At present we do not know when the next carrier will emerge, who will build it. The only thing we do have is that the next carrier after CV-18 when it arrives, might be nuclear (i.e. no additional conventional carrier after CV-18), but even that is tentative.

Does this article have anything that means we should treat it as worthwhile of changing our base of understanding?
Well, there clearly is a model, and supposedly this was commissioned by Dalian Shipyard to plans they provided. So there is that.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Well, there clearly is a model, and supposedly this was commissioned by Dalian Shipyard to plans they provided. So there is that.

I would correct you as saying "there is a model".
That is that.

We do not know definitively who commissioned it nor do we know what it is meant to depict. For example, let's say it is from Dalian and is meant to be "CVN-20". Does that mean we can say there is no CVN-19, and that 19 has to be CV-19 instead?
Also, that model isn't exactly new. We saw it some time ago, here:

And all this in context of us not having any reliable rumours associated with this picture of the model.


So no, I don't think this picture or article changes anything at this stage.

People should remember that for projects with great uncertainty (such as the future of Chinese carriers), the single best category of sources is credible rumours from the Chinese PLA watching side from individuals with a good track record.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
The '004' model in the article is on the same base as the '093B' model we saw last year. So if 093B turns out looking like this model then that may be a clue (NB: I am not saying absolute, compelling proof) that the model in the article is indeed CV20.

View attachment 105423

Again, even if the "CVN-20" model is real and commissioned by the shipyard, it doesn't necessarily mean anything.

I don't think we should put too much faith into models unless there is significant corroboration, and each model that we see should be treated as its own unique case.



I understand people are interested for news about the next carrier after 003, but IMO that is why it is important for us to tread even more carefully than normal.
 
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