00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

[AndrewS]

Such a prospect is not technically impossible, but it would be very very ambitious.

When things require so many other aspects to be verified and to go right to meet a prediction, it is better to call the original prediction itself into question instead of giving softball circumstances to meet a given prediction.

For the past few years, I've already been writing that China could go for 9 carriers by 2035.
The big determinant was how bad US-China relations would be.

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Given what has happened in the past year, it is clear that the US will only stop if you can demonstrate strength.

1. In the economic realm, the US waged a tariff war against every country in the world, thinking it had "all the cards". Those counties who resisted got slapped down until they gave up. But the sole exception here was China which "won", by demonstrating that China actually had the cards.

2. In the military realm, we see that the US and Iran were in active negotiations. Then Israel and the USA decided to launch surprise negotiations via military strikes instead. More recently, Venezuela is another example of gunboat diplomacy.

So the logical response is for China to build a larger military than the USA.

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In terms of ambition, China has a track record of setting ambitious targets and then meeting these targets.

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A prediction that China will build 6 additional carriers by 2035 is actually a big deal and should be caught by an halfway competent reviewer. I don't think this is an intern making a mistake, as I expect a lot of people reading the drafts, given that this is an unclassified document.

EDIT. And what supporting evidence can they actually publish? Oh, btw, our spies obtained a copy of the classified Chinese shipbuilding plan which states 6 additional carriers by 2035.

 

[Blitzo]

For the past few years, I've already been writing that China could go for 9 carriers by 2035.
The big determinant was how bad US-China relations would be.

---

Given what has happened in the past year, it is clear that the US will only stop if you can demonstrate strength.

1. In the economic realm, the US waged a tariff war against every country in the world, thinking it had "all the cards". Those counties who resisted got slapped down until they gave up. But the sole exception here was China which "won", by demonstrating that China actually had the cards.

2. In the military realm, we see that the US and Iran were in active negotiations. Then Israel and the USA decided to launch surprise negotiations via military strikes instead. More recently, Venezuela is another example of gunboat diplomacy.

So the logical response is for China to build a larger military than the USA.

---

In terms of ambition, China has a track record of setting ambitious targets and then meeting these targets.

---

A prediction that China will build 6 additional carriers by 2035 is actually a big deal and should be caught by an halfway competent reviewer. I don't think this is an intern making a mistake, as I expect a lot of people reading the drafts, given that this is an unclassified document.

Your arguments for it the idea of 9 carriers by 2035, in the past, are as much of an example of freewheeling speculation as it is now.

 

[AndrewS]

Your arguments for it the idea of 9 carriers by 2035, in the past, are as much of an example of freewheeling speculation as it is now.

Previously, I assigned the highest probability to 1 carrier every 5 years.

Then as US-China relations got worse, it was upgraded to 2 carriers

And more recently 4 carriers.

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There must be an overarching Chinese shipbuilding plan (at least for the next 10 years), just like the US Navy has one for the next 20+ years.

But the only definitive, publicly available statement we've ever seen is the recent report (prepared by the Department of War) to Congress, which states 6 additional Chinese aircraft carriers by 2035, for a total of 9.

Therefore this should represent the new baseline we should be working to, given caveats.

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There are a lot of people who are wedded to the idea of continued American naval primacy forever. So my suspicion is that this statement was deliberately inserted to shake this belief.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

We can add that in latest report to Congress, it states that China will add 6 additional carriers for a total of 9 by 2035. Currently, China only has 3 carriers.

If there are 9 Chinese carriers, combined with the land-based missiles and land-based aircraft, I think the Chinese military would likely win blue-water naval battles in the Second Island Chain and therefore control access to the Western Pacific.

Anyone repeating that there is a 2027 Davidson window just sounds silly at this point.

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But it does look like there are still enough believers that the US is sacrificing longer-term programmes for immediate capability in 2027.
I think it's a strategic mistake on the part of the USA, because 2027 will likely pass with nothing happening.

Then those China hawks talking about the Davidson window will look really silly.

There is one caveat. China’s aging population will start to bite after 2030. It will enter into an aging society with all focus on healthcare and elder care after 2040. The Taiwan issue must be resolved the 1980s baby boomers retire from the jobs and start receiving pensions.

 

[GiantPanda]

There is one caveat. China’s aging population will start to bite after 2030. It will enter into an aging society with all focus on healthcare and elder care after 2040. The Taiwan issue must be resolved the 1980s baby boomers retire from the jobs and start receiving pensions.

When Chinese carriers can range on the east side of Taiwan with impunity, the Taiwan issue would have been solved in all but name.

The biggest issue is Taiwan as a gate closing China off from the Pacific. The exercises and patrols around Taiwan is leading to a de facto breaking of the First Island Chain.

With more carriers we'll see constant patrols and a permanent presence in the Pacific.

And behind them will come the rest of the PLAN, the Coast Guard and the Maritime Militia.

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

When Chinese carriers can range on the east side of Taiwan with impunity, the Taiwan issue would have been solved in all but name.

The biggest issue is Taiwan as a gate closing China off from the Pacific. The exercises and patrols around Taiwan is leading to a de facto breaking of the First Island Chain.

With more carriers we'll see constant patrols and a permanent presence in the Pacific.

And behind them will come the rest of the PLAN, the Coast Guard and the Maritime Militia.

The problem is Taiwan will not accept reunification without a fight to the death. As much as you have people like Gymboss and other pro-China folks, you also have a Taiwanese majourity who would rather be second class citizens of the Japanese Empire than PRC citizens. In this sense, Taiwanese think like the roaches in my city, except the fragrant harbour is already part of the PRC, so those roaches simply did not have access to the resources to instigated armed rebellions. Should they choose to rebel, that’s the 2020 NSL long before street gun and drone battles become necessary. However, for Beijing, the dilemma is that Taiwan as a territory belongs to China per Cairo Declaration and currently international law, but the current occupiers of that territory staunchly prefer permanent separation from China. Result: China’s takeover of Taiwan would be perfectly legal under the current international system. However, it is going to be a bloody mess. Even without US and Japanese interventions, you will likely see level of mass violence (both military and civilian casualties) similar to largest battles of Korea and Vietnam. Don’t be surprised if the entire Island and parts of Fujian lay in complete ruins (possibly radioactive, if nuclear power plants were targeted) layered with tens and thousands of rotting corpses once everything settles down. Overall death will likely surpass a million, if not more. At the end of the day, the Party’s legitimacy is to take the territory back. As with the current occupiers who don’t even see themselves as Chinese and call Chinese people “cheena” on the cyberspace everyday, the Party will like face domestic pressure to not wast time protecting folks unrelated achieving complete victory. And complete victory for CPC means taking the Island back and reunify with residence of the Island who still see themselves as “Chinese”. Of course, for the occupiers, if they aren’t even “Chinese” and will likely continue to cause trouble post PRC takeover, wouldn’t the majourity of Chinese - who just suffered unprecedented war and economic costs to take Taiwan - demand that these “non-Chinese” be deported (violently, if they still have guns leftover by ROCA) from a country that they will never see as their own?

For the CPC, it is a gamble that relates directly to its legitimacy, as well as the credibility of China’s status as a victor of WWII. If Beijing has no choice but to walk into this bloodbath, the most viable time to do it would be before the Chinese population gets old. Otherwise, Beijing would not have to resources to wage wars when its massive aging population start demanding more comprehensive healthcare coverage and pensions.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

I think it is feasible.

1. Currently under construction. 1 nuclear carrier and 1 conventional carrier. Should be launched by 2027/2028

2. Then in the 2031-2035 timeframe, both Dalian and Jiangnan build 2 carriers each. Call it a module assembly time of 2 years for a single carrier, given that mature designs should be available.

So you mean something like:
- 5 FOC
- 2 IOC
- 2 out fitting
?

Certainly possible, but not enough evidence right now to support it (might show up in the next 5ish years).

I think another conventional in the works right now is highly likely (we should get rather hard evidence in the next 1-2 years, or else it is dead).

So in that way, we have current 004, 005 for IOC around 2029-2030ish.

Personally a bit doubtful we 006, 007, 008 and 009 all getting started in like 2026 to 2035.

So uh, maybe 5 FOC, 2 IOC and 2 just started laying metal in the ship yards?

At best.

(the 2 IOC started around 2030, with the 2 just laid down being started around 2035?)

 

[henrik]

Previously, I assigned the highest probability to 1 carrier every 5 years.

Then as US-China relations got worse, it was upgraded to 2 carriers

And more recently 4 carriers.

---

There must be an overarching Chinese shipbuilding plan (at least for the next 10 years), just like the US Navy has one for the next 20+ years.

But the only definitive, publicly available statement we've ever seen is the recent report (prepared by the Department of War) to Congress, which states 6 additional Chinese aircraft carriers by 2035, for a total of 9.

Therefore this should represent the new baseline we should be working to, given caveats.

---

There are a lot of people who are wedded to the idea of continued American naval primacy forever. So my suspicion is that this statement was deliberately inserted to shake this belief.

They can build multiple ships at the same time, even before the current two under-construction are launched.

 

[valysre]

I think it is feasible.

1. Currently under construction. 1 nuclear carrier and 1 conventional carrier. Should be launched by 2027/2028

2. Then in the 2031-2035 timeframe, both Dalian and Jiangnan build 2 carriers each. Call it a module assembly time of 2 years for a single carrier, given that mature designs should be available.

Is PLAN aviator corps scaling up to the point that they can produce 9 carriers worth of pilots by 2035?

 

[GiantPanda]

The problem is Taiwan will not accept reunification without a fight to the death. As much as you have people like Gymboss and other pro-China folks, you also have a Taiwanese majourity who would rather be second class citizens of the Japanese Empire than PRC citizens. In this sense, Taiwanese think like the roaches in my city, except the fragrant harbour is already part of the PRC, so those roaches simply did not have access to the resources to instigated armed rebellions. Should they choose to rebel, that’s the 2020 NSL long before street gun and drone battles become necessary. However, for Beijing, the dilemma is that Taiwan as a territory belongs to China per Cairo Declaration and currently international law, but the current occupiers of that territory staunchly prefer permanent separation from China. Result: China’s takeover of Taiwan would be perfectly legal under the current international system. However, it is going to be a bloody mess. Even without US and Japanese interventions, you will likely see level of mass violence (both military and civilian casualties) similar to largest battles of Korea and Vietnam. Don’t be surprised if the entire Island and parts of Fujian lay in complete ruins (possibly radioactive, if nuclear power plants were targeted) layered with tens and thousands of rotting corpses once everything settles down. Overall death will likely surpass a million, if not more. At the end of the day, the Party’s legitimacy is to take the territory back. As with the current occupiers who don’t even see themselves as Chinese and call Chinese people “cheena” on the cyberspace everyday, the Party will like face domestic pressure to not wast time protecting folks unrelated achieving complete victory. And complete victory for CPC means taking the Island back and reunify with residence of the Island who still see themselves as “Chinese”. Of course, for the occupiers, if they aren’t even “Chinese” and will likely continue to cause trouble post PRC takeover, wouldn’t the majourity of Chinese - who just suffered unprecedented war and economic costs to take Taiwan - demand that these “non-Chinese” be deported (violently, if they still have guns leftover by ROCA) from a country that they will never see as their own?

For the CPC, it is a gamble that relates directly to its legitimacy, as well as the credibility of China’s status as a victor of WWII. If Beijing has no choice but to walk into this bloodbath, the most viable time to do it would be before the Chinese population gets old. Otherwise, Beijing would not have to resources to wage wars when its massive aging population start demanding more comprehensive healthcare coverage and pensions.

When your navy operates permanently off the East coast of Taiwan, you don't need to take the island.

I don't think they creating such an overwhelming Navy to fight a war. It is to prevent one by creating fait accompli on the seas around Taiwan. This is the same playbook as the SCS.

I think we will see 9 or more Chinese carriers in our lifetime. There will be no war. Just acceptance over time that the PLAN operates in those waters with hundreds of aircraft for cover.