00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

[Syrida2887]

Compared with the satellite images of one year ago and half a year ago, although there is no giant section splicing of 003, the speed of tower construction method in China is also quite fast.

 

[Engineer]

I want to make a further meta-commentary about the nature of this thread's attitudes to this ship over the last year.

I think people may have forgotten that at the end of the day, a nuclear powered supercarrier is one of the final crowning products of PLA watching with hopes for such a product going back decades (arguably since Adm Liu Huaqing visited the US in the 1980s and saw carriers first hand), and certainly it has been something on the "checklist" since before I started PLA watching.
And in the real world, a nuclear powered supercarrier is something that only the leading superpower of the world has had for the last half century, with both political consequences and with real military capabilities associated with it.

All of which is to say, when it was confirmed that the PRC was building a nuclear powered supercarrier of its own, it would be a politically and militarily significant milestone, and it is also by association something where everyone should have naturally been cautious to not "cry wolf" or to jump the gun.


Jumping the gun and saying that this was "definitively" a nuclear powered supercarrirer, before we had irrefutable visual evidence of it (which only emerged in the last 1-3 months imo), meant we were at high risk of making a big claim which would then end up spreading to other parts of the internet/defense communities, and put us at risk of having to walk back a big claim if it ended up false, even if we were all fairly confident based on credible rumors+construction pace, that it was likely to be a nuclear supercarrier.

Having to walk back a confident statement that this was definitively a nuclear supercarrier, would be damaging to PLA watching credibility in the English language sphere.


That is why:
1) It was entirely reasonable for PLA watchers in the last year to have consensus that this was probably a nuclear supercarrier (even before irrefutable visual evidence emerged in the last 1-3 months) based on rumors/construction pace/initial keel and hull compartments, while also having the grace to state that "it is yet to be definitively proven based on evidence".
2) It is also entirely reasonable for people (before the last 1-3 months) to ask on what evidence base it is a nuclear supercarrier versus other alternative outcomes (civilian ship, or nuclear powered civilian ship etc).

My money is still on 004 being a conventional carrier, mainly because there is no urgent need for a nuclear carrier, and secondly because the Wuhan mockup shows an island with a funnel. The so called nuclear compartments in 004 could be devoid of reactors in the end. Their existence does not preclude conventional propulsion. A carrier design with nuclear power in mind but ended up with conventional propulsion is not new (USS America), and in China's case that would just mean unification of hull design for all future carriers. We simply can't tell how 004 would be powered until they put on the island.

As to your meta-commentary about the thread's attitude, that attitude isn't limited to this thread, but can be also observed in the Chinese navy-watching community. All rationality goes out of the window and everything gets degenerated into stats in a RPG game. I am going to go one step further than you and label the attitude as toxic.

 

[Mekconyov]

My money is still on 004 being a conventional carrier, mainly because there is no urgent need for a nuclear carrier, and secondly because the Wuhan mockup shows an island with a funnel. The so called nuclear compartments in 004 could be devoid of reactors in the end. Their existence does not preclude conventional propulsion. A carrier design with nuclear power in mind but ended up with conventional propulsion is not new (USS America), and in China's case that would just mean unification of hull design for all future carriers. We simply can't tell how 004 would be powered until they put on the island.

As to your meta-commentary about the thread's attitude, that attitude isn't limited to this thread, but can be also observed in the Chinese navy-watching community. All rationality goes out of the window and everything gets degenerated into stats in a RPG game. I am going to go one step further than you and label the attitude as toxic.

U R assuming place holders for nuclear reactors would be fitted out with conventional power plants. Still keeping the way out for nuclear power plants in a variant of 004 in future a possibility. We R all dreaming for nuclear power plants in 004 in contradictions to your assertions. Only time can tell which speculation accentuates. U may not be far off. What a game

 

[gwel]

My money is still on 004 being a conventional carrier, mainly because there is no urgent need for a nuclear carrier

My interpretation currently is that china seeks experience in carrier operations, Type 003 main utility seems to be a tool to gain that experience. I don't think many people expect them to build a dozen Type 003 and be happy with the design.
Given how long it takes to build experience, then design a new ship around it, and build and field then, I would say another tool to gain operational experience might be not outright urgent, but it seems timely? So I would see Type 004 as a new tool that brings a new aspect to the table they can gain experience on.

 

[Mekconyov]

U R assuming place holders for nuclear reactors would be fitted out with conventional power plants. Still keeping the way out for nuclear power plants in a variant of 004 in future a possibility. We R all dreaming for nuclear power plants in 004 in contradictions to your assertions. Only time can tell which speculation eventuate. U may not be far off. What a game

 

[Engineer]

U R assuming place holders for nuclear reactors would be fitted out with conventional power plants. Still keeping the way out for nuclear power plants in a variant of 004 in future a possibility. We R all dreaming for nuclear power plants in 004 in contradictions to your assertions. Only time can tell which speculation accentuates. U may not be far off. What a game

No, I am not "dreaming for nuclear power plants in 004". I would actually be quite content if China's nuclear carrier never materialise, because my view is that penalities of nuclear propulsion cancel out the benefits, making the endeavour pointless. However, the reality is that China will build a nuclear carrier at some point, so it would make the most sense for there to be a single design which is future (nuclear) proof. My assertion is that it is still a bit early to build a nuclear carrier, so I put my money on 004 being conventional.

 

[kriss]

- The drydock to the left (which is where the 004 CVN is currently being assembled) is ~370 meters long; and
- The drydock to the right (which is where five 052D DDGs were seen constructed simultaneously some years ago) is ~400 meters long.

I always thought they were the same drydock. The surroundings look almost same. And now you are telling me DL actually has the infrastructure to build 2 supercarrier simultaneously all this time?

 

[lcloo]

I always thought they were the same drydock. The surroundings look almost same. And now you are telling me DL actually has the infrastructure to build 2 supercarrier simultaneously all this time?

There are actually 3 large dry docks in Dalian that can accommodate aircraft carrier, the 3rd one is at Dagushan which has a length of around 360 m.

1- location of 00X/004. 2- this is where type 055 and type 052Ds were build. 3- this one is Dagushan where type 055 and type 052D were sighted for post-launch fittings.

 

[TK3600]

My money is still on 004 being a conventional carrier, mainly because there is no urgent need for a nuclear carrier, and secondly because the Wuhan mockup shows an island with a funnel. The so called nuclear compartments in 004 could be devoid of reactors in the end. Their existence does not preclude conventional propulsion. A carrier design with nuclear power in mind but ended up with conventional propulsion is not new (USS America), and in China's case that would just mean unification of hull design for all future carriers. We simply can't tell how 004 would be powered until they put on the island.

As to your meta-commentary about the thread's attitude, that attitude isn't limited to this thread, but can be also observed in the Chinese navy-watching community. All rationality goes out of the window and everything gets degenerated into stats in a RPG game. I am going to go one step further than you and label the attitude as toxic.

There is no urgent need yet, but it can be nuclear just for industrial needs. Once they have enough experience operating it they can scale up production at any time should needs arise. I suspect we would see conventional carrier be built along side until they are happy about how they run nuclear. Lets say in 5 years, they are happy with nuclear they might decide to go all in, and by then I would argue 2035 China needs large fleet of nuclear carrier for sustained global deployment.

 

[Blitzo]

My money is still on 004 being a conventional carrier, mainly because there is no urgent need for a nuclear carrier, and secondly because the Wuhan mockup shows an island with a funnel. The so called nuclear compartments in 004 could be devoid of reactors in the end. Their existence does not preclude conventional propulsion. A carrier design with nuclear power in mind but ended up with conventional propulsion is not new (USS America), and in China's case that would just mean unification of hull design for all future carriers. We simply can't tell how 004 would be powered until they put on the island.

Of course there is a need for nuclear endurance. unless China builds more overseas naval bases for replenishment, it will have a difficult time competing in Indian ocean or beyond the second island chain against US navy which has both plentiful replenishment bases and nuclear endurance. Just don't bother competing at this point if you are so focused on optimizing a losing proposal. The second funnel could be explained as future iterations of Fujian-variant for near-term focus on first island chain and carrier numbers, whereas Type 004 nuclear would be setting the stage for beyond second island chain and long-term force mix that is predominantly nuclear. Again, if future long-term force mix is predominantly conventional, just go home, what is the point?

Additionally at this stage I would say the propulsion of this ship at Dalian should be in little doubt.

It is reasonable for a ship to be designed for nuclear power and then changed to conventional propulsion -- but doing so relatively late in construction (for the relevant segments) where the reactor housing is literally getting installed in the ship and then being changed to conventional is not something that seems viable.
Furthermore, we've had multiple years of a crescendo of rumours that Dalian would be building a nuclear powered carrier as well, which has not really changed or reduced over time.

As Phead writes, I think the funnel of the mockup is likely for investigating elements of a future conventional carrier succeeding 003. It is placed too far aft on the mockup to be likely for conventional propulsion due to the ducting, so if the funnel does represent an actual intended island, it is likely intended for the island+funnel to be placed somewhat more amidships forwards instead on an actual conventional carrier; meanwhile the island without the funnel in the location on the mockup represents a CVN.
Directly assuming that everything we see on the Wuhan mockup's new island structure is intended for the Dalian ship, goes entirely contrary to what the years of rumours indicate, especially when we have viable alternative explanations.


That said I do agree that the final call/confirmation for 004's propulsion will be done when we see its island installed -- but as it stands, I think it's pretty reasonable to take the null hypothesis at this stage to be one where 004 is expected to be nuclear rather than conventional. If there's anything new which changes that, we'd have to see.