00X/004 future nuclear CATOBAR carrier thread

[GiantPanda]

No, just take it as "they didn't talk about it". Don't overthink it

Because of the new island and funnel set up at Wuhan, I'm inclined to believe a new CV is in order -- whether a modified Type 003 or a new design though a pair of a class do seem to be the PLAN's way.

But who know? Maybe like the discarding of the steam catapults (after years of supposedly successful development) for EM, the PLAN might have just found it unneccessary in light of development on the CVN front. They are light enough on their feet to pivot suddenly.

 

[valysre]

By the year everyone’s anticipating, it needs to be in a state that looks “scary”. But at this pace, by that year it might end up being too scary. It might even be a bit more scary than the "technical launch" of INS Vikrant.

If she hits the water in 2027, and is finished outfitting in 2029, this is a good schedule for us to see the J-35/003 videos repeated with J-XDS/004.

 

[AndrewS]

are they implying Taiwan 2027 is real?

If the carrier is launched in 2027, it would still need another 2+ years for fitout and commissioning.

So construction of this carrier implies that the Davidson 2027 window is nonsensical.

 

[AndrewS]

Nah, just that 2027 is of course a politically significant date as the PLA's 100th anniversary. It would therefore be appropriate to have the first CVN launched in time to celebrate the occasion. They specifically mentioned that fitting-out will take longer as a result of early launching, which would make it useless for any real combat in 2027.

The sheer number of early-stage programs which will not be anywhere close to combat-ready by 2027 is more than enough evidence that any Taiwan deadline for that year is complete nonsense.

We can add that in latest report to Congress, it states that China will add 6 additional carriers for a total of 9 by 2035. Currently, China only has 3 carriers.

If there are 9 Chinese carriers, combined with the land-based missiles and land-based aircraft, I think the Chinese military would likely win blue-water naval battles in the Second Island Chain and therefore control access to the Western Pacific.

Anyone repeating that there is a 2027 Davidson window just sounds silly at this point.

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But it does look like there are still enough believers that the US is sacrificing longer-term programmes for immediate capability in 2027.
I think it's a strategic mistake on the part of the USA, because 2027 will likely pass with nothing happening.

Then those China hawks talking about the Davidson window will look really silly.

 

[bsdnf]

If the carrier is launched in 2027, it would still need another 2+ years for fitout and commissioning.

So construction of this carrier implies that the Davidson 2027 window is nonsensical.

Davidson window was officially dead on December 26, 2024.

There will be no more turning point where the US military rises from decline to prosperity; the gap in strength between the two sides will only continue to narrow, it's just a matter of speed.

 

[Nx4eu]

We can add that in latest report to Congress, it states that China will add 6 additional carriers for a total of 9 by 2035. Currently, China only has 3 carriers.

If there are 9 Chinese carriers, combined with the land-based missiles and land-based aircraft, I think the Chinese military would likely win blue-water naval battles in the Second Island Chain and therefore control access to the Western Pacific.

Anyone repeating that there is a 2027 Davidson window just sounds silly at this point.

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But it does look like there are still enough believers that the US is sacrificing longer-term programmes for immediate capability in 2027.
I think it's a strategic mistake on the part of the USA, because 2027 will likely pass with nothing happening.

Then those China hawks talking about the Davidson window will look really silly.

9 Carriers sounds like complete bogus, unless they are including ships such as the Type 076 as carrier ships. Then it sounds actually feasible.

 

[latenlazy]

9 Carriers sounds like complete bogus, unless they are including ships such as the Type 076 as carrier ships. Then it sounds actually feasible.

There’s a way to get to 9 by 2035, barely, but without a change in the cadence of hull construction it’s a pretty unlikely scenario.

 

[AndrewS]

9 Carriers sounds like complete bogus, unless they are including ships such as the Type 076 as carrier ships. Then it sounds actually feasible.

I think it is feasible.

1. Currently under construction. 1 nuclear carrier and 1 conventional carrier. Should be launched by 2027/2028

2. Then in the 2031-2035 timeframe, both Dalian and Jiangnan build 2 carriers each. Call it a module assembly time of 2 years for a single carrier, given that mature designs should be available.

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If China has 9 carriers after 2035, consider how the strategic environment completely changes.
The Chinese military would likely win blue-water naval battles to a distance of 3000-4000km (which is within range of supporting land-based missiles and aircraft). That covers the Second Island Chain and the Malacca Straits for example. It means:

1. Mainland China is secure from external attack
2. China can secure the seaborne trade routes between China - South China Seas - Malacca Straits - Indian Ocean - Persian Gulf. Maybe even to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal
3. The Chinese military can prevent the US reaching and resupplying the Western Pacific. Where does that leave Taiwan, Philippines, Japan and Korea?

This would provoke a fundamental reassessment on having a military alliance with the US.

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Of course, what is happening in the economic realm is arguably even more important, given that China would prefer to avoid a war.

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As noted Japanese nationalist Shintaro Ishihara once said, if China becomes wealthy and technologically developed, Japan will have no choice but to ditch the USA and recognise China as senpai.

Lee Kuan Yew also foresaw that the day when China would dominate SE Asia from both a military and economic perspective.
And that Singapore (along with the rest of ASEAN) would have to adapt to such a change.

 

[AndrewS]

9 Carriers sounds like complete bogus, unless they are including ships such as the Type 076 as carrier ships. Then it sounds actually feasible.

If the report counted the Type-076 as an aircraft carrier, then the report should have stated that China already has 4 carriers, rather than 3.

Also remember that the Type-076 is built separately at Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard, and that future ships could be assembled in <12 months. My guess is that they will build more Type-076 as well, given that these ships can carry UCAVs to complement the full-size carriers.

 

[Blitzo]

I think it is feasible.

1. Currently under construction. 1 nuclear carrier and 1 conventional carrier. Launched by 2027/2028

2. Then in the 2031-2035 timeframe, both Dalian and Jiangnan build 2 carriers each. Call it a module assembly time of 2 years for a single carrier, given that mature designs should be available.

Such a prospect is not technically impossible, but it would be very very ambitious.

When things require so many other aspects to be verified and to go right to meet a prediction, it is better to call the original prediction itself into question instead of giving softball circumstances to meet a given prediction.