ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

Time line of recent events in the past month for us to consider:

• The big green began to attack SAA towards Hama.
• Trump says US is going do something alone to North Korean with or without China's cooperation.
• Trump says the future of Assad is to be determined by the Syrian people. << a possible turn
• The green looses ground, being rolled back by SAA. << turn of tide on the ground
• North Korean shoot missiles. << a NK message not to be sold on the table of Xi and Trump
• Xi visit US.
• "Chemical attacks" happened.
• Trump bombs Syria.

I see it equally possible that someone (I believe more of Trump himself) is sending a message to Russia on Syria, and to China on North Korea.

taxiya said:

Time line of recent events in the past month for us to consider:

• The big green began to attack SAA towards Hama.
• Trump says US is going do something alone to North Korean with or without China's cooperation.
• Trump says the future of Assad is to be determined by the Syrian people. << a possible turn
• The green looses ground, being rolled back by SAA. << turn of tide on the ground
• North Korean shoot missiles. << a NK message not to be sold on the table of Xi and Trump
• Xi visit US.
• "Chemical attacks" happened.
• Trump bombs Syria.

I see it equally possible that someone (I believe more of Trump himself) is sending a message to Russia on Syria, and to China on North Korea.

Click to expand...

Perhaps, but for many in the media and Congress they see it more as a message to the Assad regime and to Russia.


John McCain: US Missile Strike Was a Signal to Putin As Well As Assad

Broccoli said:

Because that is old footage. Russians are spreading it order to save face.

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Two different members have failed to reach the site you linked Broccoli, and the satellite photo posted in the break news thread is in line with what is shown in the Russian MoD's drone footage. So whenever you are ready, please provide evidences for your accusation that Russian drone footage is a fake old one.

For those interested, Al-Masdar News has not updated its website for about 24 hours now and is citing a US based DOS attack for its problems.



I know the article says 5 hours, but that was the last thing uploaded and that was from early yesterday afternoon BST.

texx1 said:

Some aircraft shelters are damaged, but the runway seems to be intact. Overall it doesn't look like lot of damage for 59 Tomahawks.

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lol, if they had aimed for main hangars and runway there wouldn't be much left after the strikes ended. As you can see on the Russian TV material - in the places where missiles landed there's nothing aside from ashes. For me it was a show of force and food of thought for Russians of 'what could happen if they were serious'. Nothing more. And I suppose looking at the footage that US side is perfectly content as the physical result of Tomahawk missiles did what they were supposed to do.

It seems more likely that the Syrians will think if 59 missiles do so little damage to one airbase we have little to fear.

Janiz said:

lol, if they had aimed for main hangars and runway there wouldn't be much left after the strikes ended. As you can see on the Russian TV material - in the places where missiles landed there's nothing aside from ashes. For me it was a show of force and food of thought for Russians of 'what could happen if they were serious'. Nothing more. And I suppose looking at the footage that US side is perfectly content as the physical result of Tomahawk missiles did what they were supposed to do.

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It should be 59 missile But according to the Russian only 23 hit the target and the rest missed or get lost. If that supposed to scare the Russian the effect would be the opposite
Because 23 out of 60 missile that work out les than 50% kill ratio

I don't know who is telling the truth The American claim every one of their missile hi t the target. But the runway is escaped unscathed and they are using it again
Reuter confirm that the runway is still open and they restarted the bombing campaign against the rebel


Syrian warplanes took off from an airbase just hours after it was hit by US cruise missiles on Friday, and carried out strikes on rebel-held areas in the eastern Homs countryside, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.


Igor Konashenkov, spokesman for the Russian defence ministry, said Russia would help Syria strengthen its air defences, though he did not mention whether Russian air defences currently in place in Syria were told to stand down. He said a “range of measures” would be put in place to help “protect the most sensitive Syrian infrastructure facilities”.

Konashenkov claimed that only 23 of the 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles reached the base, with the rest missing the target. He said six Syrian fighter jets at the base had been destroyed, but many remained unscathed and the runway was undamaged.

“This step will have far-reaching consequences,” said the Russian MP Mikhail Yemelyanov on Friday morning. “There’s a risk of a direct confrontation between Russia and the US and the consequences could be very difficult, right up to an armed clash and exchanging strikes – nothing can be excluded here.”

Hendrik_2000 said:

Because 23 out of 60 missile that work out les than 50% kill ratio

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That's an obvious lie as we all see on the satellite images. Or those were doctored? If Russians have better images - let them post it. But they won't unfortunately...

Hendrik_2000 said:

But the runway is escaped unscathed and they are using it again

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Oh, those stupid Americans, they couldn't destroy the runway!

But they hit multiple targets there in a well grouped and precise areas. Maybe they didn't want to destroy the runway at all? Just an idea.

And knowing that there were no real numbers of killed in action (and not a single Russian soldier) it seems like the theory about Americans telling Russians what they will do beforehand and they agreed?

That's an obvious lie as we all see on the satellite images. Or those were doctored? If Russians have better images - let them post it. But they won't unfortunately...

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Both sides has reason to lie so it nothing unusual . Didn't we see it before" Deja Vu"?
During Iraq campaign they say Patriot has 100% kill ratio Latter on they latter retract it and said 40% even that number is too high according to Israeli
What is the purpose of the strike if it meant to scare the Syrian and Russian it doesn't do the job.They are the one that create the mess in first place by encouraging regime change . See what you got city destroyed, creating million of refugee an suffering . The creation of even worst Jihadis monster. Europe become the dumping ground of Jihadis. German, Swede, Belgian die for nothing. I don't want to visit Europe again. Are you still proud fomenting Democrazy?


Patriot Missile's Success a Myth, Israeli Aides Say
By TIM WEINER,
Published: November 21, 1993
WASHINGTON, Nov. 20— Contradicting claims by the United States Army, Israeli officials say that Patriot missiles deployed to defend Israel from attacks by Iraqi Scud missile attacks in the Persian Gulf war intercepted next to none of the Scuds.

The United States Army has said that its Patriots intercepted about 40 percent of the Scud missiles that Iraq fired at Israel during the war in 1991. That is a far more modest estimate than the one originally given by the military and by the Bush Administration. In the gulf war, former President George Bush once said that the Patriot's record was nearly perfect.

But Moshe Arens, who was Israel's Defense Minister in the gulf war; Gen. Dan Shomron, who was chief of staff of the Israel Defense Force during the war, and Haim Asa, a member of an Israeli technical team that worked with the Patriot missile during the war, say that one or possiblly none of the Scuds was intercepted by the Patriots. They appeared in a documentary scheduled to be aired today on Israel television. An advance copy of interviews with the three was made available to The New York Times.

In the documentary, General Shomron described accounts of the Patriot's success as "a myth;" Mr. Asa called them "a joke."

taxiya said:

Time line of recent events in the past month for us to consider:

• The big green began to attack SAA towards Hama.
• Trump says US is going do something alone to North Korean with or without China's cooperation.
• Trump says the future of Assad is to be determined by the Syrian people. << a possible turn
• The green looses ground, being rolled back by SAA. << turn of tide on the ground
• North Korean shoot missiles. << a NK message not to be sold on the table of Xi and Trump
• Xi visit US.
• "Chemical attacks" happened.
• Trump bombs Syria.

I see it equally possible that someone (I believe more of Trump himself) is sending a message to Russia on Syria, and to China on North Korea.

Click to expand...

Trump is no doubt sending messages to Syria, Russia, DPRK, and Red China, and the US/Western media and politicians give the President very high marks. I think they're overly optimistic on how effective the messages will be.

Lots of politicians and talking heads cheer the Tomahawk strikes on Syrian air field, and it's likely Assad wouldn't use chemical weapons again. That's the good part. The not so good part is US/NATO will tolerate 400k Syrian deaths with conventional munitions, and Assad basically has a tacit OK from the West to go on killing, as long as he doesn't use chemical weapons. Why would US/NATO do that? Because it's their least bad option. Assad owes Putin.

On the DPRK, Kim Jun-un will be more careful about his travels and might sleep in different places going forward, but the Syrian strike will do little to impede his nuclear and ballistic weapons development. It might have the opposite effect with Kim speeding up his weapons development. I say that because while US could simultaneously strike multiple North Korean military sites, it can't quickly take out the thousands of artillery pieces trained on Seoul. A single volley from those guns, with conventional ammunition, could kill hundreds, injure thousands, and bring ROK's Capital to a screeching halt. So, it's unclear if the South Korean government would sign up to an attack on the North, even if Trump wants to do it. And then there's the tricky problem of the PLA in northern Korea, should the DPRK collapse.

Libya and Ukraine gave up their nukes in exchange for Western promises of security, but after the West reneged on its promises, no country would ever give up nukes in the foreseeable future. Mission accomplished for the Liberal World Order; the urgent trumped the important. Good work, guys and dolls.

China knows it's in the catbird seat, and time is on its side. So Beijing would likely placate Trump with some consequential trade concessions that could benefit both sides. The balance of power in Asia will probably continue to tilt in China's direction, and without US-lead TPP, that's not likely to change. So, it's probable China will offer meaningful trade, investment, and IP concessions and use them as tranquilizing shots for Trump, and in the process it might pry open more US markets and investments too.