ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Blackstone said:
Trump is no doubt sending messages to Syria, Russia, DPRK, and Red China, and the US/Western media and politicians give the President very high marks. I think they're overly optimistic on how effective the messages will be.

Lots of politicians and talking heads cheer the Tomahawk strikes on Syrian air field, and it's likely Assad wouldn't use chemical weapons again. That's the good part. The not so good part is US/NATO will tolerate 400k Syrian deaths with conventional munitions, and Assad basically has a tacit OK from the West to go on killing, as long as he doesn't use chemical weapons. Why would US/NATO do that? Because it's their least bad option. Assad owes Putin.

On the DPRK, Kim Jun-un will be more careful about his travels and might sleep in different places going forward, but the Syrian strike will do little to impede his nuclear and ballistic weapons development. It might have the opposite effect with Kim speeding up his weapons development. I say that because while US could simultaneously strike multiple North Korean military sites, it can't quickly take out the thousands of artillery pieces trained on Seoul. A single volley from those guns, with conventional ammunition, could kill hundreds, injure thousands, and bring ROK's Capital to a screeching halt. So, it's unclear if the South Korean government would sign up to an attack on the North, even if Trump wants to do it. And then there's the tricky problem of the PLA in northern Korea, should the DPRK collapse.

Libya and Ukraine gave up their nukes in exchange for Western promises of security, but after the West reneged on its promises, no country would ever give up nukes in the foreseeable future. Mission accomplished for the Liberal World Order; the urgent trumped the important. Good work, guys and dolls.

China knows it's in the catbird seat, and time is on its side. So Beijing would likely placate Trump with some consequential trade concessions that could benefit both sides. The balance of power in Asia will probably continue to tilt in China's direction, and without US-lead TPP, that's not likely to change. So, it's probable China will offer meaningful trade, investment, and IP concessions and use them as tranquilizing shots for Trump, and in the process it might pry open more US markets and investments too.
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Generally agree with your analysis, very good one.

I do however remain opened to what actually happened to the recent "chemical attack" incident by the fact of non-existence of independent investigation from the not long ago experience of Iraqi WMD. Bolivian representative to the UNSC just made a passionate speech few days ago, video can be found on YouTube. However, by this stage, the truth finding is past, and we will never know, nor does it really matter to the "sending of messages".

Regarding the economy perspective, the word "probable" is a good choice. I may see a lesser probability while you may see a higher one, but nobody can rule that out.
 
D

delft

Brigadier
Blackstone said:
Lots of politicians and talking heads cheer the Tomahawk strikes on Syrian air field, and it's likely Assad wouldn't use chemical weapons again. That's the good part. The not so good part is US/NATO will tolerate 400k Syrian deaths with conventional munitions, and Assad basically has a tacit OK from the West to go on killing, as long as he doesn't use chemical weapons. Why would US/NATO do that? Because it's their least bad option. Assad owes Putin.
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The allegation that Assad used chemical weapons is not credible and the US government is noticably silent about its "evidence". And the regime change champions, the sponsors of the terrorists, are responsible for some 400k Syrian deaths and whatever even higher number of wounded, not the Syrian government defending the country against the terrorists. Do you say the British and Swedish governments are responsible for the recent victims of terrorism in their capitals?
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Broccoli said:
Russia knew of Syrian chemical attack in advance, US official says
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They must be really desperate:

The official says a Russian-operated drone flew over a hospital in Syria as victims of the attack were rushing to get treatment.

Hours after the drone left, a Russian-made fighter jet bombed the hospital in what American officials believe was an attempt to cover up the usage of chemical weapons.

Until Monday, U.S. officials had said they weren't sure if the drone was operated by Russia or Syria. The senior official said it still wasn't clear who was flying the jet that bombed the hospital.

The official said the presence of the drone couldn't have been a coincidence, and that Russia must have known the chemical weapons attack was coming and that victims were seeking treatment.
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So even if we take everything this "official" is saying at face value, somehow we are supposed to believe that a drone flying reconnaissance over a warzone, followed by a jet bombing the reconned area, means Russia knew in advance about a chemical attack?
 
T

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
solarz said:
They must be really desperate:



So even if we take everything this "official" is saying at face value, somehow we are supposed to believe that a drone flying reconnaissance over a warzone, followed by a jet bombing the reconned area, means Russia knew in advance about a chemical attack?
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Fox is basically saying that they have hacked into the control chain of the drone, and installed some sniffing sensors wirelessly, and beamed the signals back to a US base far far away.

I think these guys have written numerous fantasy books before.
 
D

delft

Brigadier
The BBC is saying G7 is out for regime change in Syria. It is even repeating the Fox News story mentioned above!
Let's reconsider:
Assad is accused of using chemical weapons after saying he had got rid of them. He is accused of using them in a particularly incompetent way. Such an extreme accusation needs to be supported by extremely reliable evidence. Instead we get a stream of repeats of the same accusations that reminds me of Dr Goebbles: If you repeat a lie often many people will believe it.
And the lies come from countries that earlier used lies to justify the destruction of Iraq and Libya.
 
F

flyzies

Junior Member
Certain powers were out for regime change from the beginning. They've been fuming since Obama's "red line" cross didn't result in the outcome they wanted, and furious that the military tide has turned against the "rebels" with the Russian intervention. Now the same tactics have been used again, and this time those certain powers have made more progress with Drumpf in office...with him being so easily manipulatable.

The war drums are most certainly beating once more. Who needs proof when you control the MSM that puts on repeat the message you want to put out?
 
SampanViking

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
This story caught my eye!
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Two Russian soldiers have been reported killed due to being caught in "intensive shelling". No other details, especially as to where or when, other than that they were advisors have been given.
It is impossible not to speculate, if the "Intensive shelling" was in fact the US Cruise Missile Attack on Ash Shayrat Air Base. It is also impossible to speculate, if Russia would wish to conceal this fact to avoid increasing tensions, which itself raises the question as to why release the information now, on the eve of Tillersons visit to Moscow.

It is of course possible that the victims were killed today on an active battlefront such as Palmyra or North Hama. Usually though in such circumstances, the Russian MOD are pretty open about it. It is the description of the attack and the lack of other details that seems to point in the direction of Homs.
 
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