Miscellaneous News

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

The funny part about "trying to win" and "prevent losing" is that China is not playing that game at all. China is not interested in Winning and losing, they are interested in Development. When you talk about winning or losing, you need to degrade your opponent. That's not China is trying to do at all. China does not consider US as an opponent either. It still looks up to US in a lot areas of technology, lack of corruption in governance, higher education and so on. When China thinks about its place in the world, it sees poverty and weakness and underutilized potential.

China believes there should be universities in China that are the best in the world where everyone wants to study. China wants its movies to be as popular globally as hollywood. It wants language and culture to be popular similar to western languages.

For China, gaining influence in countries in terms of diplomacy or regime change is just not important. To be rejuvinated means your country is wealthy enough that your citizens don't need a visa to travel, your language is spoken by a lot of people when you do travel abroad and you can watch your own country's movies when you turn on the tv which is also chinese branded. That's real power and progress.

Military power, diplomacy these are secondary compared to comprehensive national power.

If China was serious about Military power for example, it will achieve fits like it did with its Expressway network. It went from 0 to 160K KM in 15 years. Its high speed rail went from 0 to 45 thousand KM in 10 years. That's what being serious looks like.

China is not interested in developing its military power yet. Yes, its improving, but at a bare minimum compared to the rest of the country. You don't spend 1.5% of GDP in military if you are serious about it. You spend 5% or 10%.

China believes Military power will come to it naturally, if it improves those aspects of economic, education and tech growth.

As for US, China wants to become as wealthy as US or Japan or Europe. And when it achieves that, it will automatically gain power and influence. It will not have "win" or make US "lose".

No one spends that much on military. Anything between NATO 2% GDP and USA or Israel high level is very serious.

 

[siegecrossbow]

I know it is the daily fail but pictures don’t lie…

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[CMP]

I think this puts it fairly sensibly, and I agree that we're in much the same boat regarding mutual coexistence. As much as I think it would be kind of funny to see a unipolarity-induced China implosion, I daresay it would probably be for the best if our nations are both healthy and prosperous lol.

Completely agreed. History shows us that unipolarity, supremacism (of any kind), hubris, and complacency ALWAYS comes before the fall, without fail. It's basically a universal principle now. The US getting its act together and focusing on building up instead of tearing down would also help keep China sharp and on its toes, but I see absolutely zero evidence that this "political self-reflection" will happen. The country is decaying internally and actively corrupting itself in almost every way, shooting itself in the feet at literally every single given opportunity, and proving completely and absolutely untrustworthy at the diplomatic level. It always plays spoiler and is incapable of being an honest broker or negotiator. We're also just going back to Cold War, but v2.0.

Ideally, the relative decline that has already been happening will continue gently over a generation or two, but all signs point to "little by little, then all at once". In many ways, the decline has even been absolute rather than relative. The tent cities, mass shootings, drug epidemic, fall in life expectancy, almost daily train derailments, seasonal/weather-triggered brownouts/blackouts in some states, fall in public safety, dysfunctional healthcare system, failing education system (mostly but not entirely outside of top tier institutions), inspire no confidence.

My hope is the decline can be managed very gently for another 30 years, but I do not see any evidence that it is likely. The political class seems committed to thrashing and convulsing, violently and repulsively.

On another note, I highly recommend you read work by Dr. Lyle Goldstein. He is also in your field and offered really rational and sober analysis back when he was teaching at the Naval War College. In fact, his rationality is the reason why he felt forced out.

 

[HighGround]

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Guys. It's over, China lost.

The Huawei experience is how this is likely to play out, according to Mr Bao. The communications giant went from being the second-largest smartphone maker in the world, after Samsung, to "essentially dead", Mr Bao says.

"So that's how easy it was for Washington to cripple a Chinese tech company. China doesn't really have a good option to respond to that. Previously, the US was targeting individual Chinese companies. But this time, the scope has expanded to the entire country."

Huawei doesn't make smartphones anymore. It's a dead company.

Beijing has complained to the World Trade Organization (WTO) but a resolution could take years.

Rules based order is here to stay guys.

 

[Overbom]

Second warning in three days

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China slams Manila again over closer US military ties, warns against ‘drawing wolves into the house’​

• Second statement in three days from embassy in Manila includes stern warning to government of President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr
• US military cooperation just a ploy to ‘pull the Philippines against China’ and tie it to the ‘chariot of geopolitical strife’, embassy says

Beijing has stepped up its criticism of the Philippines’ decision to seek closer US military ties, while accusing Washington of pulling the country against China and towards “geopolitical strife”.
The Philippines must stop veering into “the evil path of drawing wolves into the house”, the Chinese embassy in Manila said on Sunday, issuing a stern warning to the government of President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr in what was its second statement on the issue in three days.

“In order to maintain its own hegemony, the US has been escalating its military cooperation with the Philippines and increasing its military bases and deployments in the country out of geopolitical self-interest and a Cold War mentality,” the Chinese statement said.

“[Such military cooperation is] in fact a way to pull the Philippines against China and tie the country to the chariot of geopolitical strife, seriously jeopardising Philippine national interests and regional peace and stability.”

While the first statement on Friday put the blame almost squarely on the US, the latest one seemed to also take aim at the Marcos Jnr government.

“Now that China and the Philippines, among other countries in the region, are at a critical juncture of post-Covid recovery, we should keep to the right track of maintaining good-neighbourliness and attaining mutual benefit rather than getting distracted by forces who are fanning the flames and driving a wedge between us,” it said.

“We should abandon the perverse path of sowing dissension and causing trouble, not to mention the evil path of drawing wolves into the house and opening the door for thieves.”

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

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Nytimes actually putting this article seems like an attempt to reduce tensions and try to show that Taiwan is not all in on War with China. There is an attempt in mainstream western media to reduce tensions with China recently. Looks like even they are getting worried their war mongering is becoming a hysteria. Its easy to be "tough on China", but fighting is costly for the elites who run NYtimes.

This is not de-escalation. They're ridiculing the idea. That's fine, but selling it as de-escalation is like selling The.ranos investment options.

 

[solarz]

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Nytimes actually putting this article seems like an attempt to reduce tensions and try to show that Taiwan is not all in on War with China. There is an attempt in mainstream western media to reduce tensions with China recently. Looks like even they are getting worried their war mongering is becoming a hysteria. Its easy to be "tough on China", but fighting is costly for the elites who run NYtimes.

They're basically admitting that Ukraine is getting their clocks cleaned.

 

[Quan8410]

I know it is the daily fail but pictures don’t lie…

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Waiting for tanks to crush the crowd. Then BBC and CNN will have some lines about a credit crisis that will lead to the collapse of the authoritarian government of .... America.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

The funny part about "trying to win" and "prevent losing" is that China is not playing that game at all. China is not interested in Winning and losing, they are interested in Development. When you talk about winning or losing, you need to degrade your opponent. That's not China is trying to do at all. China does not consider US as an opponent either. It still looks up to US in a lot areas of technology, lack of corruption in governance, higher education and so on. When China thinks about its place in the world, it sees poverty and weakness and underutilized potential.

China believes there should be universities in China that are the best in the world where everyone wants to study. China wants its movies to be as popular globally as hollywood. It wants language and culture to be popular similar to western languages.

For China, gaining influence in countries in terms of diplomacy or regime change is just not important. To be rejuvinated means your country is wealthy enough that your citizens don't need a visa to travel, your language is spoken by a lot of people when you do travel abroad and you can watch your own country's movies when you turn on the tv which is also chinese branded. That's real power and progress.

Military power, diplomacy these are secondary compared to comprehensive national power.

If China was serious about Military power for example, it will achieve fits like it did with its Expressway network. It went from 0 to 160K KM in 15 years. Its high speed rail went from 0 to 45 thousand KM in 10 years. That's what being serious looks like.

China is not interested in developing its military power yet. Yes, its improving, but at a bare minimum compared to the rest of the country. You don't spend 1.5% of GDP in military if you are serious about it. You spend 5% or 10%.

China believes Military power will come to it naturally, if it improves those aspects of economic, education and tech growth.

As for US, China wants to become as wealthy as US or Japan or Europe. And when it achieves that, it will automatically gain power and influence. It will not have "win" or make US "lose".

Speak for yourself. From PBSC member Wang Huning's book from when he was a visiting professor in the US, no, there's no looking up to lol.

Everything you said is about begging for approval and face from others. Ironically, Americans need this the most, they just call it reputation or clout. China doesn't beg for acceptance, never has (since 1949) and never will.

 

[CMP]

Such is life nowadays, sadly. I can't say I have very high hopes for our future, but there isn't anything I can actually do about it tbh. Believe me, I've given it my best shot on multiple occasions, so it's not like I'm keen to just bend over and pray I don't get shafted. The underlying issues which have caused shit to get this bad are just waaaay bigger and more fundamental than one sleep deprived data scientist could hope to remedy.

Ultimately, if we come out on the bad end of this whole thing, we'll have nobody to blame but ourselves. I just hope that we learn from it.


I'm well aware of Lyle's work lol. He's alright, but gives too much credence to random stuff he finds in CN writings.

Overall, even though I am obliged to smite him for turning to the think tank side, I welcome the respect and thoughtfulness he brings to the PRC discussion - and that alone is pretty huge these days. Can't say I've seen him accomplish anything groundbreaking in terms of actual analytical work though.

I disagree with a lot of what Lyle says, but I still think he is valuable in being one of the very few rational voices on China in the public media. Having rational voices behind the scenes is also extremely valuable, but public discourse on China is being dominated by Jordan Peterson, Gordon Chang, Peter Zeihan, and Mike Baker. This is a clear sign of social decline and makes the US public more insane.