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9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Xi's team is too smart to do this. At some point, it seemed to me inevitable that China must split open the peace dividend from ww2, take with it all the like minded, seize and end all American activity it can find, and then establish a new alliance for the total rejection of US global expansionism.

However, 1 move in Ukraine can be chalked up to coincidence and Putin's initative, but moves in Iran and Saudi while south America is being approached cannot be ignored as mere coincidences.

It is said to be impossible to have your cake and eat it too, yet in fact, this conventional logic defying power is precisely what the Beijing government achieves. It was said to be impossible to contain covid or make covid endemic without large losses in any large country. And even among the most optimistic of spectators, it was never deemed remotely possible to resolve the Iran-Saudi conflict. Yet these things still happened.

So when China says they will put down the American threat without resorting to "cold war bloc politics", this sounds impossible for even the most optimistic, but looking at the trend of achieving the impossible, the truth is hiding in plain sight. And the truth is, far more often than not, the impossible was always achieved as long as the people put their efforts into it, and were coordinated by the responsible leadership of the party.

I've since come to realize that China will not use its status as the largest market or as the biggest industrial power as a crutch or blunt force instrument. They'll avert an US invasion using geopolitical means, because they're that confident that they're heads and shoulders above in that game.

Full frontal destructive attack will not come, no matter how long we wait for it, because that is not the way Maoists have ever preferred to fight. American global rule ambitions will not die with the loud crash of a massive offensive, but by silent surrender once they're surrounded from the countryside.

This is what China prefers, but in life as in war, the enemy always gets a vote/say... there is a red line that when crossed where China must do whatever it takes to survive, even if it means full frontal destructive attack etc... All I'm saying is that America has pushed past that line already (or at the very least that its crazy, desperate, hostile enough to soon do so etc )
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
I can't say I concur with the rest of your post, but I do agree that - if we continue treading this path - it will have to get much worse before it gets better. Whether or not it's "too late" by then isn't something I concern myself with, since I don't see any other options to be honest. If we can't survive China's emergence as a peer competitor after 3 decades of absolute, uncontested unipolarity - we will simply have reaped what we've sown.
In other words: "skill issue"

The current disaster in US is in a similar vein. The solution is obvious, but nobody is able to do it. Just like how 30 years of unparalleled power should nip China threat in the infancy. They cannot do what is right despite knowing it. This is foolishness. Indeed if we all can do what we know is right we would all be more succesful, yet we fail. US is no exception. Until the foolishness is addressed US will NEVER defeat China. As long as China do not fall to the same foolishness that is.

I am in many ways the same as you but in reverse. I consider myself a true Chinese patriot. I consider a healthier USA to be in interest of China's wellbeing. China could fall to the same complacency and foolishness without someone to keep the them in check.
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, the whole "China growing into an economic juggernaut and emerging superpower" thing took us by surprise, so we've been playing catch up in a lot of ways. I don't think I need to impress upon the folks here how mind bogglingly stupid and expensive the GWOT was, nor how deeply we got settled in to the new COIN paradigm. As a result, at least from a military perspective (since that's where I can offer the most insight), we've been stuck trying to patch holes in our military rather than being able to proactively shape and improve it. Right now, the PLA has a number of "freebies" we're addressing, and the overall pace and scale of the PLA's modernization has been affording new ones faster than we can take away old ones.

This is, in part, why much of our procurement strategy, emerging doctrine, threat assessment, and public-facing releases have been so defined by "countering" PLA capabilities, rather than creating or refining our own. LRASM was basically "Holy shit they have a Navy! We need something NOW to remedy that!" for instance. EABO, and to a slightly lesser extent ACE/ACO, was similar, but more along the lines of "Holy shit they have a good navy! Oh no, they also have an Air Force! With a conventional ballistic threat on top of it! We need a CONOP to even survive that environment!"

Since we got such a comparatively late start on things, and since the PLA has kept up such an enviable tempo of modernization, we just won't see those reactive efforts fully bear fruit until the 2030s. Once we get ourselves to where we need to be, both in terms of force structure/posture, as well as the supporting procurement and defense-industrial/technological base, we'll be in a much better position to start trying to win, rather than our current scramble to prevent us losing.

On the non-military side of things, that's a whole can of worms that I'd rather not get into too much. I've been fairly clear about my disdain for politicians, having dealt with far too many of them, so it's where I guess I'll cast much of the blame. Creatures with the sole purpose of pandering to arbitrary clumps of uninformed people, put into positions of power based on how well they can score in a divisive, meaningless, glorified popularity contest compared to their doppelgänger on the other (arbitrary) team, are obviously not in their positions on account of their merit.

But again, whole can of worms.


Depends on what you mean by "professional" discourse to be honest. Within our actual DOD circles? I'd say it's fairly sensible. Most of the people I work with are smart enough to recognize how precarious our situation is, and we usually treat the PLA with due respect in our internal work. The public-facing side of things is substantially worse. As I've mentioned, policymakers often hold some pretty laughable positions on the topic, and our uniformed politicians (once you hit big boy Officer ranks, promotion requires senate approval, meaning all our O-5s and above are congress critters to at least some degree) have a knack for making regrettable statements when they speak on the subject. Despite this, in their professional duties, they're usually willing to listen and learn from our reports and briefings, with the caveat that some do exist who don't want to hear news that they don't like.

Once you get into the think tank hellscape, or worse, the op-ed/"defense journalist" cesspool, things take even more of a nosedive. The China threat is kind of a unique one, in that it's the first time we've ever had a real toe-to-toe adversary who we not only weren't culturally familiar with, but who managed to sneak up on us. As a result, we have a horrifically out of touch set of civilian "China Experts," almost all of whom built their careers by understanding the Cold War era PLA, and who typically come from a talent-pool that played second fiddle to its Soviet-focused counterpart.

The delightfully synergistic effects of such outdated "authorities" on the topic, the fact that the PLA actually was pretty nonthreatening back in their (seemingly recent, to an uninformed reader) professional heyday, and the fact that China (unlike the Soviets or Germans or British or any of our other major historical adversaries) is a pretty poorly understood nation by most Americans (with an unfamiliar culture, an unfamiliar history, and an unfamiliar language), results in mistaken, outdated, and deliberately misleading publications being written about the PLA (often lambasting flaws which have been remedied for years at the time of writing), being the primary point of reference for a general public that lacks any sort of "baseline" understanding of the topic, that doesn't have much of the respect that comes from familiarity, and that will devour every last article written about how the Bad™ is stinky and dumb and gonna lose.

Overall, perhaps "sub-optimal" would be a diplomatic way to put it.

The funny part about "trying to win" and "prevent losing" is that China is not playing that game at all. China is not interested in Winning and losing, they are interested in Development. When you talk about winning or losing, you need to degrade your opponent. That's not China is trying to do at all. China does not consider US as an opponent either. It still looks up to US in a lot areas of technology, lack of corruption in governance, higher education and so on. When China thinks about its place in the world, it sees poverty and weakness and underutilized potential.

China believes there should be universities in China that are the best in the world where everyone wants to study. China wants its movies to be as popular globally as hollywood. It wants language and culture to be popular similar to western languages.

For China, gaining influence in countries in terms of diplomacy or regime change is just not important. To be rejuvinated means your country is wealthy enough that your citizens don't need a visa to travel, your language is spoken by a lot of people when you do travel abroad and you can watch your own country's movies when you turn on the tv which is also chinese branded. That's real power and progress.

Military power, diplomacy these are secondary compared to comprehensive national power.

If China was serious about Military power for example, it will achieve fits like it did with its Expressway network. It went from 0 to 160K KM in 15 years. Its high speed rail went from 0 to 45 thousand KM in 10 years. That's what being serious looks like.

China is not interested in developing its military power yet. Yes, its improving, but at a bare minimum compared to the rest of the country. You don't spend 1.5% of GDP in military if you are serious about it. You spend 5% or 10%.

China believes Military power will come to it naturally, if it improves those aspects of economic, education and tech growth.

As for US, China wants to become as wealthy as US or Japan or Europe. And when it achieves that, it will automatically gain power and influence. It will not have "win" or make US "lose".
 
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caohailiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
Many of us in the states have a deeply-engrained sense that only our side is capable of doing anything "good," and that anything "the enemy" does is just a clever ruse, a cynical exploitation, or a propaganda stunt to lower our guard.

We can see this most evidently in our attitude towards BRI. China has been successfully coupling itself to smaller economies, providing infrastructure and capital for lesser-developed nations, and broadly enhancing its global prestige in the process. Instead of acknowledging this fact and coming up with a better alternative for these nations, we decried it as "debt trap diplomacy" and "neocolonialism," making CN out to be an untrustworthy, predatory entity.

Another example is MIC2025, we took it as a "threat to global trade!" and painted it as an aggressive, dishonest attempt to "dominate" the world market, fuel neo-imperialist/expansionist military ambitions, and subvert the US industrial supply chain. Of course, we ignored that such an initiative is the obvious, sensible direction for a developing nation that is integrating itself into high-value-added industry and trade; and forgot that we had done quite literally the exact same thing (if not worse) for most of the cold war.

Much of this zeitgeist is a product of Cold War era cultural Oikophilia, wherein everything Freedom and Liberty and Democracy and Human Rights and blah blah blah was ascribed to the West and considered the ultimate "good" in the world; whereas The Enemy™ was painted as the antithesis to those concepts, and thus always should be seen as the ultimate "bad." When you think about it like that, especially when you consider that the fundamental framework for our "system of morality" is derived from religious iconography of a similar style (God == ultimate "good" & Devil == ultimate "bad" - and any "good" done by the Devil is always actually "bad" no matter how it may look at first), then our aversion towards acknowledging good deeds by The Enemy™ is a little more comprehensible.

In my opinion, CN deserves to be proud of what they've accomplished; so it's incredibly frustrating watching us seethe and whine instead of just trying to do better. We didn't win the Space Race by kneecapping the Soviet space program, we won it by building our own.
i think the rhetoric you described is to gather American people behind the elite class. the cold realpolitik is too difficult to sell
 

jwnz

Junior Member
Registered Member
I mean, I haven't exactly hidden which side I'm on lol.

As a US citizen, working in DOD-land no less, it should be understandable that I want the US to do as well as possible. As a result, I do indeed consider China to be our #1 competitor. After all, I wouldn't be so disaffected about our (many) failings if I didn't want us to do better.

With that said, just because we're rivals doesn't mean that I have any ill-will towards the PRC. I personally believe competition is healthy, and that by having another country around who can actually punish our failures, we are more incentivized to innovate and better ourselves. Ideally, we would be able to achieve a peaceful but competitive co-existence, wherein both nations feel "pushed" to explore more, discover more, invent more, etc. than the other side. I believe that such a dynamic would be the best outcome not only for us, but for CN as well. I don't even think such a dynamic requires animosity between the sides.

However, this is obviously not the reality that we're trending towards. Instead of taking measures to materially improve our position, we dump resources into the same senselessness that got us here, opting to take petty potshots at China's own efforts to improve theirs. As others have said, yes, CHIPS and other similar acts have been cobbled together as a response to CN initiatives. While I am entirely on board with them in principle, the efforts themselves are often ensnared in political showmanship, lobbying concessions, and bureaucratic red tape, resulting in little more than big promises, high costs, and little gain. It is going to take a lot more than just throwing money, tax breaks, and slogans at our problems to fix them; and unless we're wiling to take such measures, no amount of ankle-biting sanctions or histrionic headlines is going to stop you guys from surpassing us.

As a bit of an aside, since the DC-fellating think tankies et al. are the ones doing some of the worst damage, calling them out for their imbecilic shrieking is actually doing us a favor. Just one example of how you guys giving us a wake-up smack every now and again is beneficial (not to mention, probably highly cathartic for folks on the CN side - and rightfully so, given how we've treated it).
IMHO, the root issue is the racist belief held by the US ruling elites towards China, deeming Chinese as inferior, hence cannot accept China as an equal for competition. This is opposite of the last Cold War with the USSR, whom was respected by the US as a competent rival but with the wrong ideology. The US excelled in that period putting out innovations after innovations and advancements in all fronts.

Until the day the US ruling elites accept the fact that China is equal, they won't face the challenge and competition fairly and will resort to self pity tactics and dirty dealings.
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Nytimes actually putting this article seems like an attempt to reduce tensions and try to show that Taiwan is not all in on War with China. There is an attempt in mainstream western media to reduce tensions with China recently. Looks like even they are getting worried their war mongering is becoming a hysteria. Its easy to be "tough on China", but fighting is costly for the elites who run NYtimes.
 
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