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CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
Patchwork_Chimera said:
Such is life nowadays, sadly. I can't say I have very high hopes for our future, but there isn't anything I can actually do about it tbh. Believe me, I've given it my best shot on multiple occasions, so it's not like I'm keen to just bend over and pray I don't get shafted. The underlying issues which have caused shit to get this bad are just waaaay bigger and more fundamental than one sleep deprived data scientist could hope to remedy.

Ultimately, if we come out on the bad end of this whole thing, we'll have nobody to blame but ourselves. I just hope that we learn from it.


I'm well aware of Lyle's work lol. He's alright, but gives too much credence to random stuff he finds in CN writings.

Overall, even though I am obliged to smite him for turning to the think tank side, I welcome the respect and thoughtfulness he brings to the PRC discussion - and that alone is pretty huge these days. Can't say I've seen him accomplish anything groundbreaking in terms of actual analytical work though.
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I disagree with a lot of what Lyle says, but I still think he is valuable in being one of the very few rational voices on China in the public media. Having rational voices behind the scenes is also extremely valuable, but public discourse on China is being dominated by Jordan Peterson, Gordon Chang, Peter Zeihan, and Mike Baker. This is a clear sign of social decline and makes the US public more insane.
 
clockwork

clockwork

Junior Member
Registered Member
Patchwork_Chimera said:
we just won't see those reactive efforts fully bear fruit until the 2030s. Once we get ourselves to where we need to be, both in terms of force structure/posture, as well as the supporting procurement and defense-industrial/technological base, we'll be in a much better position to start trying to win, rather than our current scramble to prevent us losing.
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But the whole point is China also won't have stood still and the gap would've just grown even larger by then?

I'm also curious about your take on the US's failure to keep its corrupt MIC on a short leash (the polar opposite of it, really), allowing it to do things like charge $100M for one hypersonic missile and x hundred billion for a new sub/ICBM/what have you. That's really not helping your predicament, as I'm sure you appreciate.
 
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nugroho

Junior Member
Overbom said:
Whats funny is that its the "safe" US treasuries that caused them to collapse. The bank received a lot of deposits (print print baby!) last year but due to government regulation they had to invest that money in "ultra safe" ways (ie. US treasuries lol). So thats what they did.

Problem is that they bought the US treasuries with very low yield, and then the FED started hiking rates, and now when the bank needed to sell some of its US treasuries it was holding, surprise surprise, no one wanted to buy them because they had a yield of 1 or so percent while out there the current treasuries have a yield of >3.5%. So they had to give a big discount in order to get that liquid cash from selling them.

Venture Capitalist firms learn the news that the bank is basically fucked because like stupid monkeys they were holding a depreciating (papa FED going to keep increasing rates) asset and they noped the fuck out. News spread around and from a few withdrawing their money, everyone started doing it lol.. And that's how they got a delicious bank run. The regulators had to get involved because at that point the bank didn't have enough cash at hand to service all these withdrawals.

In any case, the bank's assets are enough to cover the deposits, but the problem is that they are not immediately accessible (investments, loans, bonds etc). Most likely everyone, in the long term, will get a 10-15% haircut on their deposits (except the <250k accounts).

So what's the lesson from of this mess? Buy US treasuries with low yield (when everyone knew that inflation was coming and that the FED would have to hike rates) and get fucked now. What's funny here is that the bank was forced by the regulators to buy these toilet paper bonds lol

Anyone else remembers all these idiots who were buying US treasuries 30-year bonds with 1 or 1.5% yield..
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Must China sell US treasury at a big discount too? China does not need money like SVB, but it takes a long time to wait for the treasury to mature
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
xypher said:
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Lol, supapowa on the knees already
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If Indian refuses to pay Russian prices, it won't get the oil. I don't know why that is so difficult for them to understand. India doesn't have oil, Russia has money. Who lasts longer, Indians burning cow dung for heat again, or Russians with slightly less paper?
 
K

KYli

Brigadier
xypher said:
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Lol, supapowa on the knees already
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I think it is fake news by Bloomberg. Read between the line is that India won't breach Western sanctions but those sanctions and price cap only apply when using Western financial institutions for banking, insurance, or shipping. Otherwise, I don't see how India would get any Russian oil as price is definitely north of $60 at the moment even with discounts.
 
F

Fatty

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Your views remind us why CCP is so successful. Its because they are dispassionate, pragmatic, long term thinking and extremely intelligent set of people who have risen through the ranks competing against millions. And because CCP has those qualities, it will never do foolish actions like these.

China's biggest challenge is not the US, but its own internal problems. Only very few Chinese have university level education, still 500 million people live in villages, huge percentage of people still live in poverty. Even with all this problems they have to import billions in raw materials. They are technologically backward in high tech fields.

US can throw its weight around because it has zero internal problems compared to the level of problems China has. China has to stay humble and focus on development because thats the most efficient way for them to gain rejuvenation.

US and the west provide a huge market for Chinese products which China will never give up on its own. If US keeps sanctioning China to oblivion, China will still continue to buy US high tech products to enhance its own economy and sell US its own products. China will give up its dignity in order to develop.

Time for China to take revenge will come someday for sure. But not until it is as rich as Europe and Japan. So it needs to go from 12K GDP per capita to 45K GDP per capita. By the time it gets there, it will also solve its other problems like education, infrastructure, urbanization, tech level and so on.

If it can squeeze even an ounce of US money and tech while doing it, it will take it. Its a bonus. China will not sanction US.
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I applaud 9dashline’s jingoism but this is very important. When you strike, you want to strike as hard as you can. You want to appear unthreatening and let others open their big mouths and look stupid. I can’t believe I’m saying this but this reminds me so much of the Ip Man where he fights the American and the American dude does not shut up the entire time. Each strike from the American guy that doesn’t knock him out only makes him stronger. Although he seems at a disadvantage, in the end Ip Man beats his ass.

In a similar vein, any economic war must be total and followed up by the strongest military action the world has ever seen. Any hesitation and you end up like Russia. The most important lesson you can take from this whole fiasco in Ukraine is to not let politics and emotions decide action!

in this sense, it’s best for china to not do anything yet in order to conserve her strength.
 
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