The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
This unbelievably photo was taken from a sequence of a Ukrainian Army paratrooper shooting down a Russian Orlan drone.
You can sea the full extension of the UK Martlet/LMM missile leaving the launcher.
Bellow even the full video of the action.
You can sea the full extension of the UK Martlet/LMM missile leaving the launcher.
Bellow even the full video of the action.
Have you bothered to actually look at the map? West Kherson is a natural cauldron which benefits whoever holds the South and Eastern Bank of the Dnieper. If the Ukrainians bring their long range systems into range of such targets, they will be in kill zone of Russian systems firing from two axis. You think this situation is not understood by the Russians, you think that these systems will not be priority targets for them?
Likewise do you think with all that is happening on the rest of the front lines, that Kiev will be foolish to keep them on the front where further advance is all but impossible? I am sure Moscow would be delighted if they were...
More generally and replying to numerous posts made by multiple members......
I don't see any peace deal about to end the war in its current state.
Surovikin was brought to in to do what everyone is now saying should have been done from the outset; have the men, the strategy and the free hand to finish the war on preferable terms. Currently I dont think either side's leadership could survive ending the conflict in its current condition. Nor would any deal last.
If we do see any talk about terms or any local temporary ceasefires, it will simply to aid whatever mobilisation is taking place at that time.
My belief is that Surivokin is going to open multiple new fronts from the Russian borders, East of the Dnieper with the very explicit aim of splitting and diluting Ukrainian forces. I also see a big push from the South up the East bank of the Dnieper towards Zaphorisia and Dnipro.
The need to redeploy to new multiple fronts will seriously complicate the Ukraine's logistics, especially given the delicate state of the energy and transportation capabilities, which are already bad and can only get worse. Yes they have massive stocks laid in no doubt on the established Southern fronts, but moving this to where it will be needed will be very difficult for them.
During the last few months, the vast number of the Ukraine's mobilised forces have allowed them to swarm the Russians on virtually all fronts, meaning that the Russians have never been able to find points where they have had local numerical superiority. This, more than anything else is the thing that is about to change, and to change under a Russian commander who understands exactly whats needs to be done and is not about to mess around.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Ukraine cannot do much without massive support from NATO countries. All Ukraine has is plenty of blood to waste, but all the cannon fodder in the world cannot win battles without arms and ammo, which Ukraine cannot produce.
You realise money printing isn’t magic right? You cannot magic up resources out of thin air just by merely printing money. Printing more money in the face of actual resource shortages only creates inflation, as can be seen from double digit inflation figures across the board in NATO countries.
Russia controls a significant proportion of the world’s key resources, and the west is suffering massively economically, even with money printing, because its own sanctions are depriving their economies of access to that resource pool.
That’s the key reason NATO support will tail off, not because they are not willing to keep going, but because they are not able to keep supplying and supporting Ukraine with enough arms and supplies to keep fighting in a meaningful and effective way.
The key change Russia unilaterally declaring victory and an end of the SMO is that western politicians will no longer be able to easily blame all the hardship, suffering, and yes, needless deaths that their own populations will suffer in the coming winter on Putin to silence the mobs.
As things stand, there will not be significant social upheaval from people literally freezing to death in their own homes in NATO countries because the masses believe this hardship and suffering is caused by Putin and unavoidable if he doesn’t change cause. But if Russia stops fighting, then that’s a pretty huge cause change. If after that Ukraine still wants to keep the war going, then more and more western citizens will start to question why they need to suffer and die for Ukrainian ambitions.
It's not just human temperatures, but also water temperatures when pumps and heaters are disabled, leading to pipe bursts. It's livestock temperatures. And humans get weakened in cold as well, even if clothed, which is why people turn on heaters at 15-20C and not just let their houses freeze.
Just curious. Have you? You are implying you have. What is your experience with Ukrainian refugees? Helping family? Friends? Strangers who desperately need help?
Like I said, until there is a sustained period of -10C or lower temperatures, it's going to be more of a mild inconvenience since most of the mentioned infrastructure will not be in direct contact with the environment but rather insulated/underground. It will take a long time/ never for the water to freeze if it keeps hovering around these temperatures due to the innate constant ground temperature. Also I would expect homes to be insulated enough that a few extra layer of clothes to retain enough heat for it to be bearable. Blackouts are also not a constant feature, if there's intermittent power your proposed scenario won't occur.
Ultimately Ukraine is not that far north, winters don't get all that cold in the Western side in comparison to the eastern parts which Russia occupies.
You are talking about some 7D chess move in which Russia does nothing but retreat on the ground and then after unilaterally declaring an end to the war the west will fall over and collapse and the war will be won.
Western aid to Ukraine will continue as long as there is Ukrainian land under Russian occupation and as long as Ukraine's border with NATO is open.
Let me put it this way, there is a better chance that Palestine will be liberated tomorrow than there is a chance that the west will ever stop aid to Ukraine as long as there is land to be taken.
And waiting for the west to run out of weapons to send to Ukraine makes absolutely no sense, what is the collective size of western MIC vs that of Russia! Pretty sure it's bigger.
Also the US is expanding production of military equipment that Ukraine uses. Sure it won't come online soon, but by 2026-2027 they will have results. At that point the floodgates will truly open and then lets see what Russia will do
Fundamentally, any plan that depends upon your enemy's actions to make a suboptimal decision for it, its flawed. Never create a critical-level plan that depends on your opponent's incompetence
There's literally an example of this happening to Russia at the beginning of SMO because they grossly underestimated Ukranian resistance, leading their retreat from Kiev after Ukranian defenses refused to buckle.