Just a quick bit of speculation from me for the more distant future.
Does Russia have a way back onto the West Bank of the Dnieper?
Yes, I think it does, but I would not choose Kherson.
First, they can cross the Dnieper in Belarus and come down from the North as did last February.
Secondly and far more usefully, they can cross at Zaphorisia and Dnipro.
To do this though, you will need to control a lot more of the Eastern bank north of Denipro and preferably all the territory East of the River.
A very quick look at the map will tell you why. Zaphorisia and Dnipro are everything that Kherson is not. Kherson opens into an ever winder arc of enemy territory that extends only into the Ukrainian heartland.
With Zaphorisia and Denipro, the situation is completely different. The river bends to make the territory on the West Bank a large natural cauldron, Artillery positioned on a long stretch on the East and South Banks of the Dnieper would cover a huge swathe of this territory which forms a fairly narrow arc, covered by enemy fire from three sides. This is totally different to Kherson.
By the time the Ukrainians were out of the killing zone the cauldron, the main Russian crossing points would be out of range of the Ukrainian missiles. The Russians could advance to such a line on the West bank and still only have a very short front line, with friendly forces controlling both flanks, again all of this is completely different to the situation in Kherson.
But this is not something to worry about in the short term. For this to work, control of virtually the entire East bank of Dnieper would be essential and this is just an illustration.
I think Putin’s plans and aims are more longer term.
At this point is abundantly clear that fundamental deficiencies in the Russian military means they cannot wage and win a low cost (manpower and equipment) war against Ukraine while it enjoys full NATO support. And WWII like victories bought with rivers of Russian blood would be politically untenable.
This is why the mobilisation isn’t really going to fundamentally change things on the battlefield as far as I can see. It will help to check the Ukrainian advances, but Russia will continue to suffer unacceptable levels of casualties going on the offensive, which is a price they are not willing or able to pay, and hence they are not going to be able to make major breakthroughs and advances even after all the mobilised are fully trained, equipped and deployed.
Hell, even from a purely defensive POV, it doesn’t look great for Russia, as Zelensky will happily march millions of Ukrainians to their deaths to Russian guns, but even with a 10-1 exchange rate, that’s a level of loss the Russian military and society cannot withstand.
The real root solutions to Russia’s problems are not available in the short term, and not while it is engaged in active combat in Ukraine.
But, should Russia unilaterally end its SMO and declare victory, that would fundamentally change two critical factors to Russia’s advantage.
Firstly, it would be impossible for NATO to continue even A fraction of the current level of support to Ukraine in their current economic states. Without that level of support, Ukraine fundamentally lacks the means to continue to make meaningful gains against Russia or inflect unacceptable casualties on the Russians, especially once the Russians start to get the mobilised deployed on the frontlines. Without NATO support, even a million man march against the Russians is just one giant Turkey shoot for the Russians.
Secondly, ending the SMO would give China enough of a fig-leaf to allow large scale military sales to Russia to plug all gaping holes in their current force structure. Although even that will probably be very covert with a lot of ‘joint ventures’ where Chinese systems are repackaged in Russian shells for political expediency for both sides.
The key thing to remember is that ending the SMO now would not be a true end to the conflict, merely a pause, much like 2014 was.
The west and Zelensky will never allow a real peace to happen with Russia still in control of so much Ukrainian territory and especially without a regime change in Moscow.
The level of national humiliation Russia will feel at having to stop short will hopefully give them the drive to do a proper military modernisation.
The west will continue to keep all the sanctions and state-approved discrimination against Russia and ordinary Russians, which should serve as a much needed wake up call to Russia society to the reality that they will never be tolerated so long as they remain a free and sovereign state instead of being reduced to America puppets and vassals as the EU had been.
Once Russian military modernisation has borne sufficient fruit, Putin could take up any one of the undoubtedly countless opportunities and pretexts Zelensky will shower Russia with for years to come with continued shelling of civilians and terrorist bombings against Russian targets to start part 3 of the War.
