Unless I'm terribly mistaken, exporting natural sand has been prohibited by China since 2006 for environmental reasons, with Taiwan being the sole exception. China is now taking away the exception.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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But whoever control that tiny island will either seal or break the first island chain, depending on which side it is on, and forever changes the geopolitical dynamics of the West Pacific. And totally disrupt semiconductor supply chain as well.
To be fair, while the respond of PLA last night is pathetic.
The possible long term strategic gain trade by CPC humiliation is kinda interesting. The position of PLAN around Taiwan in respond exercise look like a blockade or prepare for invasion. If this can be pushed as norm then it will be major lost in long term for Taiwan.
The possible long term strategic gain trade by CPC humiliation is kinda interesting. The position of PLAN around Taiwan in respond exercise look like a blockade or prepare for invasion. If this can be pushed as norm then it will be major lost in long term for Taiwan.
1. Most of the major islands under ROC administration with population over 10,000 e.g. both Kinmen and the Penghu have over 100k, and Matsu over 10k, are predominantly KMT, governed by the KMT officials, whose populations have stronger traditional ties to the mainland than the island of Taiwan, let alone an island ruled by the DPP;
2. For Taipei i.e. DPP to unilaterally declare independence without an iron-clad cause such as the PLA actually "invading" their "territories" would more likely than not invite stiff political resistance from the KMT and any KMT-aligned populace not just from the islands themselves but also Taiwan proper;
3. Conversely, Beijing is also well aware that capturing those islands would only serve to antagonise not only the locals who are neutral to or even partly support reunification at best, and ambivalent to it at worse;
4. But most importantly, it also risks antagonising the KMT, who have a long-standing working relationship with the CPC, whose political standing in Taiwan is just as prominent as the DPP a la Democrats and Republicans in the US, or the Tories and the Labour Party in the UK, which, needless to say, would very likely prompt the party to side with the DPP on a united political front for Taiwanese independence, if Beijing attempts to take any territory by force.
It makes no political and practical sense for China to capture those islands which are of little strategic consequence to both sides in an actual shooting war between the PLA and the ROCAF, and every political drawback for Beijing that comes with it.
In Taipei's view they would like nothing more than for the PLA to take any of those islands so that the DPP would have the political ammo, and a "justified" cause to showcase to the world China's intent to "invade Taiwan" and commence "armed reunification", so that the only way for the Taiwanese people to resist would be to declare Taiwan independent and make China out to be the invading force of a "sovereign country".
It would be incredibly foolish for Beijing to fall for such an obvious trap.
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supercat
Colonel
The U.S. knows time is not on their side. They are desperately goading China into a premature fight over Taiwan to check China's rise. China should ignore them and do things according to its own schedule.
I buy natural sand on amazon for my Campbell Dwarf Hamster and it says its Made in China... ships to Dallas etc... seriously how much sand does one need to make IC chips compared to construction or even sandbags lol
The same PR you extol was initially triumphant: the Ukraine was winning the war! Nobody sane is saying that now. You can have your PR; I will take the facts on the ground.
In my view it's inevitable that Taiwan will be bound to China in the long run. The only question is how long it takes and how much pain, death, and suffering it will take. Just look at the map. You have a tiny island of 24 million (and dropping) not far off the coast of a massive country of 1.4 billion. And with Taiwan's present birth rates, it will have a population similar to that of Hong Kong within a couple of generations. And Taiwanese have the same race, same ethnic group, same language and much of the same culture and history as mainland China. So like I said it's only a matter of time.
Right now US hawks are trying to goad China into a war so they can tell their European and other Asian countries that they should join the anti-China alliance, that China is dangerous, that China is going mad with power and will soon attack everyone. Also it would be their excuse to ban Chinese exports and cripple China's economy as much as they can. Some US hawks even want to take the US to war against China so they can use nukes and relive their WWII fantasies. The PRC right now is correct not to take the bait. Time is on its side. Heck, I will go so far as to say even if Taiwan does get temporary independence, it will not change the end result. Look at how Germany controls the EU now through the euro even though it lost WWII. The larger country will always control the fate of smaller neighbors.
P.S. the US knows this which is why it just passed a $280 billion bill to try and take semiconductor production away from Taiwan. It knows Taiwan is Chinese in the end. They don't trust or like Taiwan in reality. They are just exploiting this Chinese vs. Chinese conflict for their own purposes, hoping it goes hot.
Right now US hawks are trying to goad China into a war so they can tell their European and other Asian countries that they should join the anti-China alliance, that China is dangerous, that China is going mad with power and will soon attack everyone. Also it would be their excuse to ban Chinese exports and cripple China's economy as much as they can. Some US hawks even want to take the US to war against China so they can use nukes and relive their WWII fantasies. The PRC right now is correct not to take the bait. Time is on its side. Heck, I will go so far as to say even if Taiwan does get temporary independence, it will not change the end result. Look at how Germany controls the EU now through the euro even though it lost WWII. The larger country will always control the fate of smaller neighbors.
P.S. the US knows this which is why it just passed a $280 billion bill to try and take semiconductor production away from Taiwan. It knows Taiwan is Chinese in the end. They don't trust or like Taiwan in reality. They are just exploiting this Chinese vs. Chinese conflict for their own purposes, hoping it goes hot.
I don't know of any such nations.
China's own current incarnation is also a reaction to its past memories which color its present core interests. Nations are made of people, and there is no quantum decoherence effect in geopolitics.
I wouldn't sugar coat this man.
It is true that there is not enough reason to go kinetic over this incident at this point in history, but that does not mean that the PLA "got what they wanted" either. This is not ideal for either the PLA or the CPC.
Taiwan will only declare independence when it fails to give China any easy excuse for military intervention against the island.
An example of this would be precisely if the PLA capitulates the small islands of Taiwan, this would be a great asset for Taipei and it would be the ideal moment to make the declaration of independence so dreamed of. Taiwan needs a very strong argument to declare independence and gain recognition in the international community, capturing the small islands would only give Taipei that advantage. This is just one example that an overreaction by China's political and military leadership can trigger something far beyond anyone's control.
So I don't believe in any attempt by the PLA to capture these small pieces of rock between mainland China and Taiwan, because that would mean that the PLA would have to be dragged into a conflict where it would have to react, here it would be a shame not to act and not because of an old witch from the USA that half of Americans hate her takes an unofficial tour of Taiwan.
People are too emotional here. How much crying. You need to calm down and analyze things seriously, there are people saying that Xi can be compared to a Yeltsin, this is pure bullshit. You are talking about the political leadership that really militarized the islands in the South China Sea, fought head-on a trade war with the US, kept a growing economy even in the midst of the Covid pandemic and the overreaction in blaming China for the serious world health crisis, maintained a diplomatic neutrality around Ukraine avoiding being sanctioned.
They may be talking about "China's final warning" or "paper tiger" or whatever else they come up with, I'm sure the Chinese political leadership doesn't give a damn about what the western media says about them and even less about citizens' comments common people other than the Chinese. Here they report that Pelosi in Taiwan would harm the 20th Congress and Xi's guaranteed election because it would be demoralized, I don't believe that, I see just the opposite, Xi faces several problems internally, Pelosi's visit was a gift to Xi, this diverts internal problems such as modest growth in the second quarter, city lockdowns due to Covid, real estate crisis, banking crisis and more. I believe just the opposite, this may have been a gift to Xi and in the indefinite extension of his term that will take place this fall, I do not expect any eventual breakthrough in Taiwan before the 20th Congress. China will no advance to Taiwan under the US schedule, but on its own schedule. I wouldn't be surprised if nothing happens this year and next year as well.
An example of this would be precisely if the PLA capitulates the small islands of Taiwan, this would be a great asset for Taipei and it would be the ideal moment to make the declaration of independence so dreamed of. Taiwan needs a very strong argument to declare independence and gain recognition in the international community, capturing the small islands would only give Taipei that advantage. This is just one example that an overreaction by China's political and military leadership can trigger something far beyond anyone's control.
So I don't believe in any attempt by the PLA to capture these small pieces of rock between mainland China and Taiwan, because that would mean that the PLA would have to be dragged into a conflict where it would have to react, here it would be a shame not to act and not because of an old witch from the USA that half of Americans hate her takes an unofficial tour of Taiwan.
People are too emotional here. How much crying. You need to calm down and analyze things seriously, there are people saying that Xi can be compared to a Yeltsin, this is pure bullshit. You are talking about the political leadership that really militarized the islands in the South China Sea, fought head-on a trade war with the US, kept a growing economy even in the midst of the Covid pandemic and the overreaction in blaming China for the serious world health crisis, maintained a diplomatic neutrality around Ukraine avoiding being sanctioned.
They may be talking about "China's final warning" or "paper tiger" or whatever else they come up with, I'm sure the Chinese political leadership doesn't give a damn about what the western media says about them and even less about citizens' comments common people other than the Chinese. Here they report that Pelosi in Taiwan would harm the 20th Congress and Xi's guaranteed election because it would be demoralized, I don't believe that, I see just the opposite, Xi faces several problems internally, Pelosi's visit was a gift to Xi, this diverts internal problems such as modest growth in the second quarter, city lockdowns due to Covid, real estate crisis, banking crisis and more. I believe just the opposite, this may have been a gift to Xi and in the indefinite extension of his term that will take place this fall, I do not expect any eventual breakthrough in Taiwan before the 20th Congress. China will no advance to Taiwan under the US schedule, but on its own schedule. I wouldn't be surprised if nothing happens this year and next year as well.
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