Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[9dashline]

Wow approaching 40k following, it will become the most followed flight in history on Flightradar24 soon if not already.

Pelosi gonna earn the million watcher club

 

[kbecks]

It's entirely possible she's not on SPAR19 and switched to that decoy aircraft instead, anyone recall what the other one's serial is?

SPAR20, though SPAR19 is continuing to climb and appears to be going back the same route that SPAR20 took inbound a few hours ago (East of the SCS and closer to the air cover of the Roosevelt)

 

[reservior dogs]

Lol they aren't going to do anything, there seems to be quite a bit of doom porn on here and I think everyone needs to take a breath. Someone visiting a country is not, and shouldn't become, an act of war.

I don't think they will shoot down the plane that Nancy is on, but I don't believe for a second that they will do nothing. At the end, there will be no war(if the U.S. chooses not to have one), but they will want to demonstrate how weak and impotent the U.S. military response is. It will be a confrontation without war (assuming the U.S. chooses no war).

 

[yrydzd]

How do you know? This is WW3 we are talking about. Is this a decision that you can make based on emotion?

I think you have some unrealistic ideas about this war. It's gonna be Korean war scaled, not WW3.

Again. This is WW3 we are taking about. Why make this decision based on emotion? Which is easier to control for China? A reunification war? Or WW3?

Yes, Chinese people on both sides will be hurt and killed in a reunification war. But have you ever thought about how many more Chinese will be hurt and killed if China provokes the US and its allies into WW3?

The US will already be hurt really bad when Taiwan falls. It is a major strategic defeat for the US in Asia. That on top of a full scale Chinese diplomatic and economic war. This will hurt the US where it hurts most. The foundations of it's pride and image as an unshakable Superpower, holding what's left of the Western world together.

US will be perfectly fine with losing Taiwan. Most American doesn't even know where Taiwan is. If the US can live with betraying the Kurds, leaving Afgan in shame, and staying out of Ukraine, then they can definitely live without Taiwan. That's why this Pelosi visit is crucial. Let's see if they can live without the house speaker

China does gain alot from calling the US's bluff without WW3. China gets Taiwan with less complications, it saves Chinese lives, and it puts the final nail into the coffin of US hegemony in Asia. This is the last bluff that the US can make. Unlike Afghan, Kurds, or Ukraine, Taiwan is a household name in the US and Asia. Since 1949, Taiwan can only exists because of the US. If the US cannot protect this historic piece of their hegemony, what else can they ever truly protect?

Again, there will be no WW3. No allies are going to join the US because Taiwan is so insignificant. NATO isn't doing any fighting for another European country aka Ukraine, why would you expect them the fight for an island of yellow people half way across the globe?

US's grip on global hegemony will severely weaken with the loss of Taiwan. It is one more promise broken too many. Things will never be the same.

No. US will use this invasion of Taiwan to put more fears into its allies and unite them against China. Did the US lost hegemony over Ukraine? No, the stupid European leaders can't see it and they actually tighten their ties with the US, same for Japan and SK. You need to defeat the US for those people to clearly see how the hegemony ends.

So what if they do another HK on Taiwan? Was the 2019-2020 HK colour revolution successful? That happened when China was taking a hands off approach with HK. No more. When China takes Taiwan, there will be no more hands off approach. Those days of the US messing about in China's internal affairs, it's over.

Why bother if there are Taiwanese not happy about the change in government. That won't change even if China is at war with the US. Worse still, with the US being an active war participant, they could actually use military force to return to Taiwan. Anyway, if China takes Taiwan by force. The island will be under martial law. There will be no more Taiwanese, and Western media to watch. The DPP members and the radicals will be rounded up without mercy. They will be forced to go through a reeducation program or die. Violent protests can be crushed by military force. Everything happening in Taiwan will be under full PLA control. If the US is not at war with China, the most that they can do is sanctions and diplomatic rebuke.

Why bother if a peaceful unification can be achieved?

 

[kriss]

Someone visiting a country is not, and shouldn't become, an act of war.

Except that's not a country as both China and US agreed and that's no ordinary someone.

 

[9dashline]

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No published flightplan??

 

[56860]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554138958870839297

Also SPAR19 now in the air

Shoot down the ROCAF planes.

 

[kbecks]

I don't think they will shoot down the plane that Nancy is on, but I don't believe for a second that they will do nothing. At the end, there will be no war(if the U.S. chooses not to have one), but they will want to demonstrate how weak and impotent the U.S. military response is. It will be a confrontation without war (assuming the U.S. chooses no war).

Fair, I meant to Nancy's plane specifically. I also don't think China will use this to rush an invasion of Taiwan, at most perhaps take some of the islands (i.e Kinmen) like we saw with Crimea in 2014.

Except that's not a country as both China and US agreed and that's no ordinary someone.

So it's not even China then? Semantics aside, a visit does not mean war.

 

[9dashline]

Fair, I meant to Nancy's plane specifically. I also don't think China will use this to rush an invasion of Taiwan, at most perhaps take some of the islands (i.e Kinmen) like we saw with Crimea in 2014.



So it's not even China then? Semantics aside, a visit does not mean war.

I only takes one side to force a war, it does if either US or China says it does .. thats all that counts/matters

 

[Biscuits]

Lol they aren't going to do anything, there seems to be quite a bit of doom porn on here and I think everyone needs to take a breath. Someone visiting a country is not, and shouldn't become, an act of war.

visiting China without permission isn't direct act of war, but it's well within rights to shoot at the border crosser, and if US wants to respond to that, it's their choice to start a war.