This.
The tepid response to Doklam emboldened the Jai Hinds to attempt Galwan, which led to bloodshed anyway.
Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
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This.
The tepid response to Doklam emboldened the Jai Hinds to attempt Galwan, which led to bloodshed anyway.
As we chess players like to say: "The threat is more powerful than the execution". I remember when during the war in Yugoslavia the Serbs threatened to blow up the Krško nuclear power plant in Slovenia. That had everyone on the edge of their seats and a few days later the Brioni agreement was signed.
Just because China threatens TSMC doesn't mean they have to follow through with it.
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Who dares to investigate her? People like to say she is 3rd in line after Joe-senile-puppet-Biden and Kamala-nobody-Harris, but I believe Pelosi is calling all the shots right now.
My take is she is trying to start a war and I can see three reasons for her:
- Personal reason.
Like others have said, she wants to leave behind a legacy. She obviously has an enormous savior complex. - Geopolitical reason.
Bring down China. Whether she lands in Taiwan or not, it is going to be a win for her, and she clearly has no intention of dying. - Domestic reason.
The democrats can't lose an election if there is no election. *taps temple* I think photoshopping her face into the "I love democracy" meme will perfectly describe the not so distance future. If she is granted emergency power, then the Republicans better watch out.
By that measure, the Chinese government would never allow Pelosi's plane to land in Taiwan.
We should see how things would progress in the Western Pacific later today.
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The public discourse in Taiwan on China is highly divisive. There are supporters of China, and there are fervent secessionist elements. Taiwan has a non-functional democracy in the sense that it is non-inclusive - it is essentially a winner-take-all democracy that does not attempt to incorporate the viewpoints of the losers. This has fostered a dissatisfied and ideological independence movement under President Ma, and in the long-run will lead to further social divisions as a result of the incumbent Tsai. What you are seeing results from the fact that the pro-secessionist element is in power, and therefore are doing everything possible to maximise their chances of achieving their ideological goal of independence.I always end up having similar views to Tom FowdyI think the same about Taiwan too. The problem here is Taiwan itself and its hostility against China. In addition to that Taiwan made itself a huge liability to China and it is actively hurting China's foreign relations. We talk about 1996 here but China's power is not the only difference here. Taiwan of 2022 is, by all means, an adversary to China. It went as far as funding China hawks, lobbying for anti-China policies in the US and supporting riots against Chinese people in the Solomon Islands. The current crisis is not only between the USA and China. This is why I think the use of force against Taiwan is possible. And Pelosi's visit is a perfect opportunity to give a reality check to Taiwanese and reverse 6 years of salami slicing in a matter of days.
But the current tension does not have to remain that way. Indeed, even under the previous administration Ma, cross-strait relations were very cordial, or even friendly at times, with both Taipei and Beijing coordinating informally on issues such as Diaoyu and SCS. So, while I agree Taiwan is currently a liability, I disagree that Taiwan so long as it has autonomy will necessarily remain adversarial to China. The pendulum in Taiwan can swing very quickly, for reasons I have mentioned. The problem here is the external influence in that swing.
The biggest problem and culprit in the scene is the foreign backers of the DPP - namely the United States. China should be directing its dissatisfaction and anger towards its real adversary. The US will back the status-quo elements in Taiwan when it suits them - for example during the so-called War on Terror. The US needed China's acquiescence back then, and therefore needed to bring the renegade President Chen to heel. Chen was not supposed to have won the 2000 election had it not been for the internal fracture within the KMT, and even after his victory he lacked the majority to govern properly. Now, the incentive for the US to maintain the status quo has decreased sharply, and the sense of urgency to stop China's rise has taken priority. This led the US to step up its overt and covert support for DPP.
I still believe as Chinese power continues to grow relative to the US, a peaceful resolution is within reach. This will require more time, but it is time that China has. Among the Taiwanese independence movement, there is a sobering perception that time is running out. They are aware that the military balance is shifting quickly and irrevocably in China's favour with every passing year, not just vis-à-vis Taiwan, but also vis-à-vis the US. This means there is a real urgency for the independence movement to provoke a conflict in the next couple of years, before the 'window of opportunity' (that exists in their mind) for Taiwan and its Western backers to win closes entirely. While war is of course terrible, they think if Taiwan needs to fight one to achieve independence, it needs to be now. I actually think this is one observation the Chinese mainlanders can agree with the Taiwanese secessionists on - that the latter's dream is on a clock, and one that is fast approaching 12. In a few years, it is very likely the secessionists will have to submit to the reality that the 'window of opportunity' has closed, and I think many would give up and/or emigrate to Western countries. When this happens, Taiwan would have no recourse but to either initiate negotiations for a peaceful resolution, or at least act on the basis that its autonomy is a privilege granted by Beijing, not a right. This is particularly true if the US were to be distracted by some other issues, either internal or in other parts of the world, like Eastern Europe. On balance, it is too early to convince ourselves that China absolutely must use brute force, at least not yet! We should continue to see wisdom in Beijing's view that it strives to achieve peaceful unification, with the use of force only as a last resort.
The English translation of what 赵立坚 said doesn’t do it justice
如果她敢去，那就让我们拭目以待。
Just watch his facial expression
如果她敢去，那就让我们拭目以待。
Just watch his facial expression
"Concerns grow over China nuclear reactors shrouded in mystery | Nuclear Energy News | Al Jazeera"
The reason these breeder reactors are shrouded in mystery is that China, which had been transparent about its civilian plutonium programme until recently, stopped annual voluntary declarations to the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] on its stocks of civilian plutonium in 2017 and has not added the reactors to the agency’s database to date.
Do you know if that is real or not? I couldn’t find it at all in the spokesperson’s Q&A and the MSM reports.
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