Ukrainian War Developments

[FairAndUnbiased]

How about this:
View attachment 86156

That is actually much more realistic and stops at natural barriers. It is quite achievable with the biggest challenge being Odessa. But even without Odessa and Russia making no gains in the southwest, it would be a huge deal. Ukraine wouldn't be crippled if they keep Odessa but they'd be hugely economically reduced and would contribute nothing to the EU.

The big problem is the northeast. Chuhuiv and Izium are the keys to both securing Donbass and taking Kharkiv.

 

[4Runner]

I would take any open comment about intent from either side with a very great pinch of salt. They are at War and they are in a process of negotiation.
All that has been said by the Russians is that they will reduce Offensive operations on the most Northern part of the front.
What does that actually mean and how long will that apply? Ultimately its meaningless. So from one shell fired every 15mins down to to one every 30mins?
Nowhere have I read that Russia intended to withdraw from territory or withdraw any units.
It may well however reflect the need to redirect supplies and logistical support for concentration in the Donbas to ensure no loss of momentum once the full fury of the offensive is unleashed.

Exactly. Talking is FUD, balloon or PR. As long as Russia is not losing, talking is a tactic before it achieves its strategic goals. Ukraine would not be talking if it has a remote sense of winning.

 

[Abominable]

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A good look at the official Russian perspective of the peace talks.

I think the Kiev situation makes a bit more sense now. Chernigov is a Ukrainian city that has been encircled and under siege for some time now. The Kiev forces has been sat outside doing nothing except having to deal with small scale harassment. I think the agreement is to lift the siege on Chernigov in return for Ukraine leaving the Russian forces outside Kiev alone.

I'm still not sure I'd make that deal but the Kiev front is the deepest into Ukrainian territory and the hardest to reinforce and resupply.

How about this:

View attachment 86156

I'd expect the Russians would want Kiev and full control of the Dnieper.

 

[FriedButter]

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Russia to ‘drastically’ cut military activity near Ukrainian capital​

Moscow said the move was for the sake of successful peace negotiations

 

[windsclouds2030]

Captured! Russian Spetsnaz (Special Ops) have apprehended the Azovites who, three days ago, tortured Russian POWs, shooting them alive in the legs while they were handcuffed - Vladimir Shamanov, Head of the Defence Committee of Duma.
S. Velichko, 28 y.o
K. Nemichev, 26 y.o

In the first round of 'interrogations' they blamed their upbringing for their actions.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508854958573211654

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508788364065050634

 

[Jingle Bells]

Russia annexed Crimea and fought an 8-year long proxy war to prevent Ukraine to joining NATO, but that didn't deter Ukraine or NATO. This current direct Russian involvement is an expansion of the war to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO (again). So therefore, to prevent future NATO aspirations, Russia should just end the Zelenskiy regime right now. There should be no reason why Russia needs another "NEXT WAR" to achieve the objectives it set out today, you are repeating the same mistake again expected a different outcome. Just end the regime to have a permanent long-term solution.

Dude, that makes no sense.
1. Did Ukraine Join NATO or at least gotten MAP (membership action plan) in the last 8 years? No.
2. Did "Zelensky Regime" wanted to get into NATO 8 years ago? No.
3. How on earth can "getting rid of Zelensky Regime" do anything to prevent other Ukrainians politicians assuming the role of Zelensky after your Russia gotten rid of him and his regime? Are your Russia going to kill off all Ukrainian politicians except for the pro-Russia hardliners? Do you think that's even possible?
4. If Ukraine didn't join NATO in the last 8 year, nor did it even gotten a MAP, what make you think after this current war, Ukraine can just be a NATO member all of sudden, before Russian can react with another war? The only way this happens is if Ukraine can defeat Russia in the battle field, and got no land loss and even gotten Crimea back. Do you really think there is a high enough possibility for this happen to warrant a discussion about it?
5. As for this current war in Ukraine, even though Russia is winning, it should be very clear now that at the current Russian strength level, they don't have a good change securing and annexing all of Eastern Ukraine (East of Dnieper River) without dragging on the war longer than they can afford.

 

[Terrowyn]

Dude, that makes no sense.
1. Did Ukraine Join NATO or at least gotten MAP (membership action plan) in the last 8 years? No.
2. Did "Zelensky Regime" wanted to get into NATO 8 years ago? No.
3. How on earth can "getting rid of Zelensky Regime" do anything to prevent other Ukrainians politicians assuming the role of Zelensky after your Russia gotten rid of him and his regime? Are your Russia going to kill off all Ukrainian politicians except for the pro-Russia hardliners? Do you think that's even possible?
4. If Ukraine didn't join NATO in the last 8 year, nor did it even gotten a MAP, what make you think after this current war, Ukraine can just be a NATO member all of sudden, before Russian can react with another war? The only way this happens is if Ukraine can defeat Russia in the battle field, and got no land loss and even gotten Crimea back. Do you really think there is a high enough possibility for this happen to warrant a discussion about it?
5. As for this current war in Ukraine, even though Russia is winning, but it should be very clear now that at the current Russian strength level, they don't have a good change securing and annexing all of Eastern Ukraine (East of Dnieper River) without dragging on the war longer than they can afford.

Yup. If it was to prevent them from joining NATO then he might as well start a proxy war with Finland right now.

The reality is that Russia didn't ask for the proxy war in the Donbass, it was forced upon them when Nazis decided they wasn't happy with the breakaway republics.

 

[pmc]

That Russian negotiator wasnt not speaking clearly... He should have known to be extremely careful with his words

any deal where conductors of orchestra are Erdogan and Ambrovich will be unacceptable to EU. once the dividing lines are understood than all reconstruction and cheap utilities will be in the East. this will be impact viability of population numbers left out. some goes EU and some goes East.

 

[Richard Santos]

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no one says they entered peace negotiations in bad faith.

Everyone says they entered peace talks with the most sincere concern for peace and civilian life the very utmost on their mind and whatever they happen to be doing on the front at the moment is only done out of the most pacific concern for the success of peace negotiation so other people are blamed should the negotiation fail.

 

[Lethe]

it’s called an economy of force maneuver. look at the shape of the current front line around kyiv. there is a enormous number of km of front line that has to be manned to a satisfactory men/km level compare to the square km of territory the Russians actually hold. This means a inordinately large number of troops is required to hold relatively small amount of territory. By simply pulling back from more exposed forward positions, the Russian can shortening and straightening the front line, and thus greatly reducing the troops on essentially frontline guard duty. these troops can then be pulled out of line and redeployed.

Exactly. Russia's claim that this shift is due to their good will in the peace talks is simply a political fig leaf to cover a military failure and subsequent military decision to pull back. Russia will want to shorten the lines to achieve a more sustainable position, but I doubt they will withdraw from the Kyiv region entirely because by maintaining a presence there they tie down Ukrainian forces that would otherwise be available to reinforce the east.